Supporters of pro-Iran factions gesture in front of a poster bearing an image of killed top Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani, right, and Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, in Baghdad's Tahrir square last week. AFP
Supporters of pro-Iran factions gesture in front of a poster bearing an image of killed top Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani, right, and Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, in Baghdad's Tahrir square last week. AFP
Supporters of pro-Iran factions gesture in front of a poster bearing an image of killed top Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani, right, and Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, in Baghdad's Tahrir sq
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
January 21, 2024
There are serious societal and political divisions of varying degrees in the US, Iran, Israel and among the Palestinian people, but ideological rigidity seems to be the common denominator – particularly in Israel and Iran.
Israel is sinking deeper into the hole that the far-right government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dug for it, having rejected the two-state solution even if this runs counter to what Washington has called for. Palestinians, meanwhile, continue to grapple with internal fragmentations between its Islamist and nationalist movements.
The Iranian regime is hawkish as ever. But since the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war, it has sought a delicate balance, being neither prepared nor willing to have a direct war with Israel. Consequently, it is attempting to realign its proxies across the Middle East with its priorities, reclaiming decisive control over them to contain chaos.
In the US, President Joe Biden’s administration is navigating through all this, particularly with regard to dealing with Israel and Iran, amid a fateful election campaign for the governing Democratic Party.
Mr Biden’s presumptive rival, former president Donald Trump, is squarely focused on domestic affairs and purportedly rejects any involvement in perilous foreign matters. He appears content on letting Mr Biden stumble into foreign policy pitfalls in the run-up to the November vote.
Mr Trump proudly claims that no wars erupted during his presidency. He sees himself as a man of unwavering resolve and one who refuses to succumb to Iranian blackmail. He says he places faith in the efficacy of sanctions over getting embroiled in wars. He also claims to be a master of the “art of the deal”.
US President Joe Biden during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last October. Reuters
Netanyahu’s position on the two-state solution amounts to a direct confrontation on his part with Washington
As president in 2020, he presented his vision for a two-state solution, which essentially gave Mr Netanyahu everything he wanted, leaving the Palestinians with only a vague promise of a constrained “state”. That said, he takes pride in brokering the Abraham Accords.
His team opposes engaging with Hamas and is critical of the current administration’s policy of negotiating with Iran and its proxies, even if it is being done through third-party countries.
He does not view restraining Iran from entering a war as a diplomatic achievement for Mr Biden or the region. Instead, he sees danger in backdoor agreements while Tehran buys time to advance its nuclear weapons programme and return to a policy of hegemony, extending its influence through proxies. For the Trump camp, the Biden administration’s reversal by redesignating the Houthis is just one glaring example of the mistakes it has made vis-a-vis the region.
Iran, naturally, views Mr Trump’s return to the White House as a catastrophe. Consequently, it will attempt to collaborate with the Biden team to contain the war in Gaza, prevent its escalation, and not hinder the two-state solution that Washington is working on with the Arab world.
The Israeli government will bide its time, hoping to see Mr Trump back in the White House. But what Mr Netanyahu might not be grasping is that Mr Trump probably recognises the importance of the current phase, with its historical risks and opportunities. The former president isn’t likely to undermine the positive relations he built with America’s Arab allies for the sake of the Israeli Prime Minister’s misguided notions.
Mr Netanyahu’s rejection of the two-state solution, unanimously endorsed and supported by the world and the US, demands a response.
Even as the US and its European allies need to keep the pressure on the Iranian regime over the actions of its proxies, including the Houthis in the Red Sea, they face several choices to rescue Israel from the Netanyahu government and prevent it from dragging the Middle East into a war involving the West.
Palestinian Muhammad Al Durra with his children in the ruins of a house in Rafah where they sheltered on January 11, 2024. EPA
Family and friends at the funerals of journalists Hamza Al Dahdouh and Mustafa Thuraya on January 7, 2024 in Rafah, Gaza. Getty Images
Palestinians mourn relatives killed by Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip outside a mortuary in Khan Younis January 4, 2024. AP Photo
Displaced Palestinians queue to bake bread at a camp in the Muwasi area of Rafah, Gaza Strip, on December 23, 2023. AP Photo
Palestinians queue for food in Rafah, the Gaza Strip, on December 20, 2023. AP Photo
The ruins of Rafah on December 14, 2023. AFP
Palestinians wounded in the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip arrive at a hospital in Khan Younis on December 8, 2023. AP Photo
Palestinians flee Israeli bombing along the Salaheddine Road in the Zeitoun district of Gaza city on November 28, 2023. AFP
A Red Cross vehicle takes Israeli hostages from the Gaza Strip into Egypt in Rafah on November 25, 2023. AP
The ruins of buildings in Gaza city on November 24, 2023, as a temporary truce between Israel and Hamas took effect. AP Photo
A woman and her cat return home to eastern Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip during the first hours of a four-day truce between Israel and Hamas forces on November 24, 2023. AFP
Mourning the dead of Israeli bombardment outside the mortuary at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis on November 14, 2023. AFP
Civilians and rescuers look for survivors in the rubble of a building after Israeli bombing of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on November 12, 2023. AFP
November 7, 2023, a month to the day after Hamas attacked Israel, a victim of an Israeli bombardment in Rafah is moved from the rubble. AFP
Searching the rubble after Israeli air strikes on the town of Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, on October 26, 2023. AP Photo
Mourning the Kotz family at their funeral in Gan Yavne, Israel, on October 17, 2023. AP Photo
An Israeli firefighter composes himself after he and his colleagues extinguished cars set on fire by a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip in Ashkelon, Israel, on October 9, 2023. AP Photo
Palestinians with the wreckage of an Israeli tank at the Gaza Strip fence east of the city of Khan Younis on October 7, 2023, the day Hamas forces swept unopposed into Israel. AP Photo
Israeli police officers evacuate a woman and a child from a site hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip, in Ashkelon, southern Israel, on October 7, 2023. AP Photo
The Biden administration has succeeded, so far, in pressuring Israel to not open a war front with Hezbollah in Lebanon. But it is a temporary and transitional measure.
Mr Netanyahu’s position on the two-state solution amounts to a direct confrontation on his part with Washington. This development alters the equation as he steps into the US presidential election arena, convinced that the Jewish vote and financial support will align with Israel’s interests rather than with those of the Democratic Party.
The Prime Minister has gone to the extent of saying that the current conflict is not about the existence of a Palestinian state but that of a Jewish state.
The Biden administration is still attempting to negotiate a transitional agreement with Israel, beginning with reducing the intensity of its operation inside Gaza and the killing of civilians. During this transitional period, arrangements would be made for a deal involving security guarantees in exchange for Israel’s acceptance of a flexible equation for the two-state solution. Some refer to this as the start of yet another “process”, while others see it as wordplay, as required by diplomacy.
The crucial point is that we are still in the dangerous zone of escalations and provocations. It is evident that there are divisions inside both Israel and Iran, with the latter having conducted direct strikes against Iraq, Pakistan and Syria this week.
Both nations are stumbling. Both are searching for a face-saving formula. Both are constrained by their ruling ideologies. But what is noteworthy, and perhaps a saving grace, is that even though both claim to desire the demise of the other, at their core, they cannot, or rather do not, want to make it happen.
There is, of course, no exit from this circle of anxiety just yet. But equally, there is no shift into a terrifying military resolution either.
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How to avoid crypto fraud
Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
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How to apply for a drone permit
Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
Submit their request
What are the regulations?
Fly it within visual line of sight
Never over populated areas
Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
Bowling style: Right-arm off-spin and slow left-arm orthodox (that's right!)
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
TOURNAMENT INFO
Fixtures
Sunday January 5 - Oman v UAE
Monday January 6 - UAE v Namibia
Wednesday January 8 - Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 - Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 - UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Waheed Ahmed, Zawar Farid, Darius D’Silva, Karthik Meiyappan, Jonathan Figy, Vriitya Aravind, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Basil Hameed, Chirag Suri
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
