In analysing the US-UAE relationship, one mustn't be distracted by the ephemeral dance of diplomatic and political manoeuvring. Rather, the essence of this partnership is to be found in three historical dimensions, with implications far more profound than the fleeting headlines of the day.
The military co-operation that underpins the relationship is not a transient connection; it is a cornerstone. American hardware and software have deeply ingrained themselves in the UAE's military structure. Any significant change in this arena would be a generational undertaking that the UAE is not poised to pursue.
Abu Dhabi's determination to acquire the F-35 fighter jet is a testament to its unyielding commitment to enhance its military through American expertise. The pursuit of this state-of-the-art technology underscores the strategic value Abu Dhabi places on aligning its military capabilities with those of the US.
Documents released under the US Freedom of Information Act reveal the UAE's strategy to use American military expertise to help polish its robust capabilities. The UAE has become a prime destination for US veterans, attracting prominent figures such as former secretary of defence Gen Jim Mattis.
Further, the US-UAE security arrangement is far more than a conventional alliance; it's a vital bond that cannot be replaced or replicated with any other nation, let alone anytime soon.
The US and UAE, alongside India and Israel, recently announced the creation of the I2U2 joint business coalition, aimed at promoting economic development and food security amid global climate change. The grouping’s existence, and remarks made by top US government officials, underscore the strategic nature of Washington’s alliance with Abu Dhabi, highlighting the I2U2 as a forward-looking partnership with exciting projects under way, connecting regions in a way that aligns with broader US diplomatic and economic goals.
While the negotiations between the Biden administration and the UAE for a strategic security agreement have yet to yield results, the talks themselves, covering defence, security and trade, underline the continued importance of this alliance.
Finally, while the UAE may actively pursue economic opportunities in global crises, its core economic fabric is inextricably tied to the US, particularly through the Swift code arrangement, which is heavily dominated by American rules and codes. This connection is crucial to the UAE’s economic and trade-related activities and America’s interests in the region.
President Sheikh Mohamed and Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, attend the virtual I2U2 summit with the leaders of India, Israel and the US. All photos: Presidential Court
Sheikh Mohamed delivers the opening speech at the virtual I2U2 summit.
The quadrilateral I2U2 stands for 'I' for India and Israel and 'U' for the US and UAE.
Sheikh Mohamed and Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed on the left of the screen, with Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India, top right, and US President Joe Biden, left, and Yair Lapid, the prime minister of Israel, right.
The leaders of the grouping referred to as the West Asia Quad were expected to discuss the global food crisis and other areas of co-operation.
The virtual meeting of the four leaders was the first summit of the I2U2 since it was formed in October last year to deal with issues concerning maritime security, infrastructure and transport in the region.
Sheikh Mohamed said food and energy security, climate change and healthcare were the greatest challenges requiring close partnerships to tackle them.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, last September. Reuters
Far from being a unique feature of UAE foreign policy, this hedging is emblematic of a global trend
Any talk of the UAE drifting away from Washington is a misunderstanding that fails to contextualise the calculated manoeuvres on Abu Dhabi's side. Far from being a unique feature of UAE foreign policy, this hedging is emblematic of a global trend. Nations, allies of Washington included, are more reluctant to choose definitive sides in international conflicts.
India's stance, for example, regarding the war in Ukraine has been characterised by a refusal to condemn Russia's actions, while simultaneously increasing trade with Moscow, particularly in the form of purchasing Russian oil, albeit below the price cap set by western economies.
Israel is carefully managing its relationships with major global powers, notably the US, China and Russia, to safeguard its diverse interests. The planned visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to China, amid tensions between Israel and the US, underscores Israel's desire to expand economic ties and engage in dialogue about regional stability, while still emphasising its steadfast alliance with the US.
Simultaneously, Israel's acknowledgement of Moscow's importance, particularly in relation to its military activities in Syria, has led to its refusal to arm Ukraine against Russia, even when urged by Washington. This decision has been consistent across two governments and three prime ministers since the war began. Israel's foreign policy strategy involves a careful balancing act: building connections with China to explore economic opportunities, co-ordinating with Russia in Syria to counter Iran and its militias, and preserving its special relationship with the US.
This complex and multifaceted diplomatic approach positions Israel alongside other nations that are similarly managing their international engagements in a complicated global landscape, marked by a diminishing confidence in Washington.
In fact, doubts surrounding the US's dedication to the security of its allies are not without basis. The way the JCPOA negotiations were conducted has heightened concerns among US partners in the Middle East about Washington's understanding and regard for their security needs. These anxieties feed into a larger perception of the US withdrawing from Middle Eastern affairs. A similar pattern is evident in Asia, where South Korea's unease with US security commitments has led government officials and politicians to contemplate nuclear alternatives. These underlying worries represent widespread apprehension among US allies about the reliability of American defence promises.
UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during their bilateral meeting in Washington in October 2021. AP Photo
Former leaders Anwar Sadat of Egypt, Jimmy Carter of the US and Menachem Begin of Israel during the signing of the Camp David Accords in 1978. Jimmy Carter Library
However, the narrative that suggests the UAE is drifting away from the US alliance is not just an oversimplification; it is a profound misunderstanding of a partnership that goes beyond mere convenience or immediate political considerations.
In addition to playing a pivotal role in the war on terror and trailblazing peace with Israel through UAE's leadership of the Abraham Accords, Abu Dhabi is aligning itself with a crucial US foreign policy pillar through its focus on renewable energy. The UAE and US have forged an agreement to invest $100 billion in clean energy projects, aiming to add 100 gigawatts of clean energy globally by 2035. This agreement, crucial to the Biden administration's agenda on environmental sustainability, will stimulate both private and public sector investment in areas such as clean energy innovation, carbon management, advanced reactors, and decarbonisation of industrial and transport sectors.
The US-UAE alliance stands as a beacon of adaptability and resilience in a region often adrift in uncertainty. It is, however, not impervious to the subtle shifts that define the geopolitics of our time. While we lack the drama of a “Sadat moment”, akin to Egypt's profound shift under Anwar Al Sadat from the Soviet sphere into America's embrace, we must not succumb to the mirage of stagnant realities. The UAE's political compass, once fixed and unswerving, may be exhibiting a quiet, incremental shift. This movement, almost imperceptible in its gradualism, could elude the vigilance of veteran diplomats.
In a world where allegiances are continually tested and realigned, the US-UAE relationship stands as a testament to the adaptability and resilience of international partnerships. Those seeking to understand this alliance would do well to look beyond the immediate headlines and consider the enduring strategic value that continues to bind these two nations in an ever-changing world.
Know before you go
Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Qualifier three, 2.10pm – Scotland v loser of qualifier one
Qualifier four, 7.30pm – Hong Kong v loser of qualifier two
Thursday, October 31
Fifth-place playoff, 2.10pm – winner of qualifier three v winner of qualifier four
Friday, November 1
Semi-final one, 2.10pm – Ireland v winner of qualifier one
Semi-final two, 7.30pm – PNG v winner of qualifier two
Saturday, November 2
Third-place playoff, 2.10pm
Final, 7.30pm
How it works
Booklava works on a subscription model. On signing up you receive a free book as part of a 30-day-trial period, after which you pay US$9.99 (Dh36.70) per month to gain access to a library of books and discounts of up to 30 per cent on selected titles. You can cancel your subscription at any time. For more details go to www.booklava.com
Ultra processed foods
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
