Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
August 06, 2023
The Biden administration will need to delve deeper to understand the thinking of the Arab Gulf leaders, especially the Saudi leadership. This is made even more crucial by the fact that Washington is seeking to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough involving Israel, and to rectify its geopolitical mistakes as it attempts to downgrade Saudi relations with China in exchange for strengthening its own equation with Riyadh.
The days when the old traditional approach to US-Saudi relations used to work are long gone, as a sense of pragmatism and emphasis on mutual interests takes hold in the diplomatic and political language adopted by young Gulf leaders. If anything, this requires American politicians – Democrats and Republicans – to be vigilant, wise and daring enough to move past their old, false assumptions.
A recent article by veteran journalist Thomas Friedman on a “big Middle East deal” being sought by the Biden administration deserves pause and scrutiny.
Indeed, the primary challenges facing the ideas related to Israel revolve around US President Joe Biden’s ability to push Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government to abandon its doctrines and policies that reject the two-state solution and refuse to grant Palestinians their full rights as citizens within Israel or as a people under occupation pursuant to international legal obligations.
Israel has repeatedly rejected American and international efforts to find solutions to its conflict with the Palestinians. Instead, it is seeking to normalise relations with the Arab world while disregarding the Palestinian occupation, which it views as an Arab problem rather than its own.
Here lies the dilemma for the Biden administration – as was the case for previous administrations.
The Trump administration achieved a historic breakthrough through the unprecedented Abraham Accords, which led to the normalisation of relations between major Arab countries and Israel. Egypt and Jordan already had peace treaties with Israel resulting from bilateral negotiations in which the US had played a crucial role.
Saudi Arabia is willing to make peace with an Israel that is as fair to the Palestinians as possible, based on the two-state solution and the Arab Peace Initiative that it proposed during the Arab Summit in Beirut in 2002.
A Palestinian boy walks past a monument showing a map of Mandatory Palestine in the West Bank town of Jenin in the north of the occupied West Bank in April 2022. AFP
Saudi Arabia is willing to make peace with an Israel that is as fair to the Palestinians as possible
This is what US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the White House’s Middle East policy chief, Brett McGurk, heard from Saudi officials during their visits to Riyadh and Jeddah in recent weeks. In other words, Saudi Arabia, which is showing a combination of flexibility and firmness, does not necessarily reject the idea of normalisation but might consider it if some conditions it deems reasonable are met.
The Biden administration seeks a breakthrough in this regard because its officials fully recognise the importance of such an achievement not only in the context of US-Saudi-Israeli trilateral relations, but also in terms of its implications for the US presidential election.
The US will need to convince Israel that peace with Saudi Arabia cannot be achieved at the expense of Palestine. While concessions are usually inevitable during any negotiation, the assumption that Arabs have forgotten the Palestinian issue and that Saudi Arabia is ready to normalise in exchange for minor concessions from Israel is a fantasy. It will not happen.
Saudi Arabia has been steadfast in its position since the beginning, and it had proposed a comprehensive peace initiative with, and conditions for recognition of, Israel. The kingdom remains prepared to take the initiative but today, the onus is more than ever on the US, because Saudi Arabia is now essential for American administrations due to its new roles regionally and internationally stemming from a reinvention of itself.
This provides the Biden administration with the opportunity to achieve a win-win outcome. But the concern is that it might not be able to do so, because of domestic political considerations. Historically, both of America’s mainstream political parties have had to accommodate Israel during election cycles.
Yet today, the opportunity is favourable for both parties to present fresh proposals and take firm a stance towards Israel because geopolitical considerations require re-evaluating what best serves American interests.
Currently, US interests lie in expanding and globalising Nato. Offering extensive security agreements to Saudi Arabia would be fundamental to this endeavour, aligning it with agreements Washington has with the likes of Japan and Australia.
A Ukrainian soldier moves along a trench at a position near the front-line town of Bakhmut. Reuters
The leader of Russia's Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin, right, talks to his fighters in Bakhmut. AFP
A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th Separate Mechanised Brigade keeps watch on the front line. EPA
An evacuee from eastern Ukraine boards a train in Pokrovsk bound for Lviv. Reuters
Fighters of the Russian Volunteer Corps, which fights on the side of Ukraine, in the north of the country, not far from the Russian border. AFP
A Ukrainian army multiple rocket launcher fires at Russian positions on the front line near Bakhmut. AP
Smoke rises after a Russian missile strike in Kyiv. Reuters
A Ukrainian man plants sunflowers between a damaged Russian tank and its turret in his garden in the village of Velyka Dymerka, Kyiv region. AP
Ukrainian servicemen rest at their positions after a battle near the front-line city of Bakhmut. Reuters
A teenager aims a Kalashnikov AK47 rifle during defence training at a centre for school pupils in Lviv. AFP
A Ukrainian national flag in the middle of a blossoming field near Brovary, east of Kyiv. AP
Ukrainian servicemen check Russian positions near the front-line city of Bakhmut. Reuters
Rescuers put out a fire during a Russian air strike on Kyiv. EPA
Ukrainian boys play at being soldiers in the village of Stoyanka. AFP
Ukrainian servicemen during an exercise in the Chernihiv region. Reuters
Ukrainian soldiers fire a cannon on the front line near Bakhmut. AP
Saudi Arabia welcomes being seen as a key partner, rather than as a subordinate that is sought after only when needed. It understands what Nato’s globalisation means for the Arab region. However, Riyadh doesn’t want to be part of an anti-China axis. It seeks to establish its credibility on the international stage and get allies and friends to respect its right to build relations with everyone pragmatically.
The kingdom sees no utility in disengaging from China, given their economic and political ties. Nor is there a benefit in second-guessing security ties and advanced relations with America.
Those responsible for shaping US policy must understand that China’s sponsorship of the Saudi-Iranian agreements resulted from sovereign decisions made by three countries, and that Riyadh will not backtrack on this path just because the US seeks to broker a Saudi-American-Israeli agreement.
Today, Saudi Arabia is active on the global arena and co-ordinates with other Gulf countries that play important roles in regional and international affairs. The kingdom is, in fact, leveraging its relations with the warring parties in Ukraine to host talks this weekend.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed hope for holding a peace summit this autumn. Talks being held in Saudi Arabia would be a step towards achieving this goal. This doesn’t mean that peace is at hand, of course, for Russia has rejected participating in the talks.
Nonetheless, the Biden administration has realised that it needs to adjust its perspective, approach and conduct towards the kingdom – and the Arab Gulf more generally – if it wants to build healthy relationships in the region, whose importance has grown domestically, regionally and globally.
If Washington seeks a grand bargain, it must take bold steps in its relationship with Israel and compel it to commit to the two-state solution, rather than settling for the kind of superficial proposals that the world has seen far too many times in the past.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE) TV: Match on BeIN Sports
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Scores
Rajasthan Royals 160-8 (20 ov)
Kolkata Knight Riders 163-3 (18.5 ov)
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Date of Birth: April 25, 1993 Place of Birth: Dubai, UAE Marital Status: Single School: Al Sufouh in Jumeirah, Dubai University: Emirates Airline National Cadet Programme and Hamdan University Job Title: Pilot, First Officer Number of hours flying in a Boeing 777: 1,200 Number of flights: Approximately 300 Hobbies: Exercising Nicest destination: Milan, New Zealand, Seattle for shopping Least nice destination: Kabul, but someone has to do it. It’s not scary but at least you can tick the box that you’ve been Favourite place to visit: Dubai, there’s no place like home
Director: Romany Saad Starring: Mirfat Amin, Boumi Fouad and Tariq Al Ibyari
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
Trolls World Tour
Directed by: Walt Dohrn, David Smith
Starring: Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake
Rating: 4 stars
Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings