Imagine you've dropped your keys one evening, walking through a park.
It's dark, and you cast around for the missing keyring under the nearest light, the only illuminated spot in an expanse of black.
This action is known as the streetlight effect: looking for something where we believe it can be found. This is a kind of observational bias that we can witness elsewhere – ChatGPT, for example.
These days, most of us with an internet connection and the wherewithal are well on the generative AI bandwagon, thanks to Sam Altman and his company OpenAI, the makers of ChatGPT.
We are seeking to understand how to use this new tool, and whether – and how – it should be regulated. Some people even have put AI in charge of their companies. Others are telling us that the world as we know it will end. While others such as sci-fi writer Ted Chiang inform us that this is nothing more than applied statistics and that the current product is “filler” content that nobody wants to read and even fewer people want to write.
In short, generative AI has become all-consuming, you probably have formed an opinion on it and are in some way immersed in the mania. Like looking for your lost keys under a streetlamp, we are looking at where the light is brightest.
But what have we missed, amid the streetlight effect?
There are at least three important developments that are of future consequence, though currently in the shadow of generative AI.
First on the list is energy beamed from a satellite in space down to Earth – much like the technology that is on display on the “space floor” at the Museum of the Future in Dubai. This is very experimental and bears the early-stage hallmarks of clunky and high-tech equipment attached together with duct tape to make it happen.
But the team from Caltech has demonstrated the concept that solar energy harvested in space can be transmitted to Earth via microwaves. While the energy sent to Earth was just enough to power up one small LED light, the prospects are enormous: panels in space that are always exposed to the Sun could provide a continuous source of energy. Clearly all the efforts of space travel, engineering, communications and more are going to be vital in making this technology a reality of the future.
One small LED now, all of the planet illuminated in the future.
A second important development is the discovery of a third type of superconductor.
Superconductors, as their name implies, are materials that allow the transfer of energy at minimal loss, don’t heat up and can be extremely strong magnets, too. These properties confer them with special importance in the development of new technologies: fusion reactors, which have been under research for decades, are now tantalisingly closer to produce more energy than they require to run. Superconductors are essential to producing the coils in the chambers to ensure the 100-million-degree fusion reaction does not escape. In addition, these magnets are used for MRI medical machines and for magnetic levitation trains. This latest superconductor – the first new discovery in the field since the 1950s – offers the plausibility of working at room temperature, which would mean far more widespread use in everyday applications.
Third, and this has made some headlines around the world, is the generation of energy from air humidity.
Researchers at the University of Massachusetts have developed a micro-generator which is thinner than one hair and the size of a fingernail that can generate a small amount of energy, enough to power a pixel on a screen.
Like the energy beamed from a satellite in space, these experiments are proof of concept that will be scaled up somewhat in the near future, with current science and materials. But in decades to come, they hold great promise because research and development ecosystems around the world will continue to deliver advances that meet our latest demands.
I am convinced that it’s important to understand the intricacies of the future of AI and of today’s generative AI. I also think that there is an entire universe of emerging science and technology out there, much of which is not yet nearly ready for mass-adoption, but in time will be central to our lives. Therefore, it’s incumbent on us to look for these, understand them and promote them where appropriate.
If you are suddenly aware that you may be suffering from observational bias, look beyond the streetlight. You might find much more than your lost set of keys.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The bio
Favourite book: Peter Rabbit. I used to read it to my three children and still read it myself. If I am feeling down it brings back good memories.
Best thing about your job: Getting to help people. My mum always told me never to pass up an opportunity to do a good deed.
Best part of life in the UAE: The weather. The constant sunshine is amazing and there is always something to do, you have so many options when it comes to how to spend your day.
Favourite holiday destination: Malaysia. I went there for my honeymoon and ended up volunteering to teach local children for a few hours each day. It is such a special place and I plan to retire there one day.
MATCH INFO
Who: UAE v USA
What: first T20 international
When: Friday, 2pm
Where: ICC Academy in Dubai
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE%20v%20West%20Indies
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
