Akbari's execution will trigger a dangerous period in UK-Iran relations

Iran's judiciary announced Ali Reza Akbari's execution on Saturday. AP Photo

Iran appears to have launched a game of nerves with the UK that could have unpredictable consequences.

Alicia Kearns, a leading backbencher in the UK’s Conservative party, has called on the government to recall the ambassador Simon Shercliff from Tehran if Iran's former deputy defence minister Ali Reza Akbari were executed. On Saturday, Iran’s judiciary announced that Mr Akbari, who became a British citizen after quitting Iranian politics and arriving in London in 2009, had been hanged.

The case involving Mr Akbari has many hallmarks of repeated confrontations between the UK and Iran over the past decade. A new strand of this cycle of crisis in the relationship is also now apparently moving to the fore. It is not hard to see that there could be a run of more attacks and incidents that will become a form of dirty war between the two countries.

Withdrawing the ambassador would certainly be a setback for the entire diplomacy of the Middle East.

The British mission in Tehran has never lost its historic importance. Mr Shercliff is a skilled and insightful diplomat who adds much to the UK presence in the region. Go back a decade or more to the last time there was no ambassador in Tehran and things were very messy indeed. That the two countries are on the brink of a new phase of dispute and tensions is very worrying, especially as the fallout from it could go far beyond the bilateral relationship.

Police officers stand on duty outside the Iranian embassy in London. AFP

There is little good in pretending that the dynamic is not already playing out

The idea is given credibility by the absence in London of Iran’s ambassador, who is said to have been recalled under hardliner pressure. While Mohsen Baharvand had Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) credentials, that wasn’t enough to prevent his early recall. The charge d’affaires in the UK had taken an unsympathetic public line against demonstrators in Iran who came out after the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody.

Already there is a diplomatic mismatch in the relationship, and history shows that things go wrong with alarming speed.

The last time the UK embassy inside Iran was stormed, in 2011, the then ambassador Dominick Chilcott was out of the country. His deputy, still in country, managed a fraught situation well but there was a threat to life at the time. The Iranian embassy staff in the UK was privately apologetic and disconcerted by the attempted razing of the UK mission and its residential compound in Tehran’s northern suburb of Gholhak.

What is most instructive is that the allies of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, egged on the attack. Iranian Parliament's then speaker, Ali Larijani, said the wrath of the pro-government crowds stemmed from “decades of domination-seeking behaviour of Britain”. It was not until after the signing of the nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, that a new British ambassador was able to return to Iran.

Alistair Burt, who at the time of the embassy assault said that it could not have happened without the backing of the Iranian leadership, told British television this week that showdowns such as the one revolving around Mr Akbari are always the product of a power struggle in Iran.

Newspaper reports this week suggested that the discovery of uranium-tainted package at Heathrow Airport around Christmas was being treated as a “dry run” by Iran for a more formal attack. The idea that this could happen is not so fanciful. Not long after diplomatic relations resumed in 2016, both sides managed to play down the discovery of a lock-up bomb factory just outside of London linked to Tehran.

Demonstrators chant slogans during the March of Solidarity for Iran in Washington. AFP

Another group of demonstrators at the march. AFP

A protest in support of Iranian women in Barcelona. Reuters

Iranian citizens and locals joined in the Barcelona protest. Reuters

People attend a demonstration in solidarity with Mahsa Amini and other Iranian women in Castello Square, Turin. EPA

A person places a candle during the demonstration in Turin. EPA

A protester holds a pre-Islamic Revolution Iranian flag during a demonstration in Brussels in support of the Iranians fighting for their freedom. AFP

A protester wearing a top with a logo that reads 'No to an Islamic state" as she takes part in a rally in support of the Iranian people, in Brussels. AFP

People wave the Shah-era Iranian flag during a protest in Paris. AFP

A woman shows her true colours in the protest against the Iranian government, in Paris. AFP

A woman holds a flag, as people protest against the Iranian regime outside Iran's embassy in central London. Reuters

Supporters of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) carry placards and wave party flags in Beirut, during a protest against the death of Ms Amini. EPA

People demonstrate against the Iranian government outside the Houses of Parliament in London following the death of Amini. Reuters

A mural in Paris depicts women cutting their hair to show support for Iranian protesters. AP

People take part in a rally against the Iranian government in Vancouver, Canada, on Saturday. AP

Protesters take to the streets of Tehran. EPA

Iranian protesters run after clashing with with police. EPA

A protester shaves their head outside the Houses of Parliament in London. Reuters

Iranians living in Athens hold a protest in solidarity. AFP

People take part in a rally in The Hague. AFP

A woman cuts her hair during a demonstration in Santiago, Chile, by feminist groups and Iranian migrants in support of Iranian women following the death of Amini. AFP

Members of feminist groups and Iranian migrants during the protests in Santiago. AFP

Iranian activists shout slogans during a protest against the government in Tehran, in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. EPA

A protester holds a painted portrait of Mahsa Amini in Berlin, Germany. EPA

A protester shows red paint on her face, resembling blood splatters and bloody handprints next to the national Iranian emblem, during a rally in Berlin. EPA

Iranian protesters shout slogan during a protest in Istanbul, Turkey. EPA

A woman holds a sign during a protest against the Iranian government, in front of the country's embassy in Madrid, Spain. The protests were triggered by the death of a young Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, in police custody. Reuters

A woman cuts her hair during the protest in front of the Iranian embassy in Madrid. Reuters

Israelis show their support for women in Iran as they hold up placards of Amini during a protest in Jerusalem. EPA

Amini, 22, was arrested in Tehran on September 13, 2022, by the morality police. She fell into a coma while in police custody and was declared dead on September 16. EPA

People walk by graffiti in support of the protests triggered by Amini's death, in Jerusalem. EPA

A protest in Nantes, western France, after the death of Amini in Iranian police custody. AFP

Women gather for a demonstration in Barcelona, Spain. AFP

Demonstrators in Nantes. Amini's death has sparked a global protest movement. AFP

Women protest outside the town hall in in Montpellier, southern France. AFP

A woman at a protest in Catalunya Square, Barcelona. Reuters

Campaigners and football fans protest at a Champions League match between Porto and Bayer Leverkusen at the Dragao stadium in Portugal. EPA

People hold placards during a demonstration in solidarity with the Iranian people near the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. EPA

An Iranian woman living in Turkey with 'Freedom' written on her forehead takes part in a protest near the Iranian consulate in Istanbul. Reuters

In Barcelona, protesters take part in a demonstration in support of Iranian women. AFP

A Lebanese activist takes part in a protest in Beirut, triggered by the death of Amini, 22. AP

A Turkish protester takes off her head scarf while giving a performance in Instanbul during a protest against Iran over Amini's death. Getty

A woman in Istanbul cuts her hair during a protest against Iran. Getty

A Lebanese activist holds a poster depicting Amini during a protest in Beirut organised by feminist groups in support of women protesters in Iran. EPA

Demonstrators in Los Angeles, California, hold the Iranian flag during a protest against the government in Tehran. AFP

Demonstrators hold placards in Mexico City during a protest against Iran. Reuters

People demonstrate in Montreal, Canada, during a protest triggered by Amini's death. AFP

Iranian Americans participate in a rally in central Los Angeles, in solidarity with women in Iran. AP

Demonstrators march during a protest in Los Angeles, California. AFP

A woman with the colours of the Iranian flag painted on her face participates in a rally as thousands demonstrate in support of Iranian women in Los Angeles. EPA

Australians protest over Amini's death in Melbourne. EPA

Police block protesters from entering Iran's embassy in Oslo, Norway. EPA

Demonstrators in front of the European headquarters of the UN in Geneva, Switzerland, during a rally against Iran. EPA

A candlelight vigil for Amini in Los Angeles. AFP

Afghan women hold placards as they take part in a protest in front of the Iranian embassy in Kabul. AFP

Protestors take part in a rally outside the Iranian consulate in Istanbul. AFP

An Iranian woman shows a lock of hair she cut off during a protest outside the Iranian consulate in Istanbul. EPA

Demonstrators outside the Iranian consulate in Istanbul. Getty

Iranian Americans rally on Capitol Hill in Washington to show support for protesters in Iran. AFP

Protesters on Capitol Hill hold a sign condemning the crackdown by Tehran. AFP

German demonstrators gather in Berlin after the death of Amini in Iranian police custody. AP

A protester cries during a rally in Berlin. Reuters

A demonstration in Madrid, Spain. Thousands have gathered in cities across Europe to support protests in Iran. AP

Demonstrators gather outside the Iranian embassy in Madrid. Reuters

People take part in a protest in Lausanne, Switzerland. EPA

Protesters hold signs featuring images of Amini during the protest in the western Swiss city. EPA

Demonstrators in front of the Iranian embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina. EPA

An activist outside the Iranian embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina, with a sign that reads 'Justice for Mahsa Amini'. AFP

A demonstration against violence in Iran is held in Quito, Ecuador. The Iranian community in Ecuador protested outside the Iranian embassy. EPA

Protesters at a demonstration outside the Iranian embassy in Quito, Ecuador. EPA

The international situation effectively means that there is no way out for Iran from its deteriorating ties with the West. The accumulation of evidence towards proscribing the IRGC in the UK and EU, and possibly in Canada, is such that the announcement looks more and more like a formality.

Leo Docherty, the UK's undersecretary of state for Europe told parliament that a move to proscribe the group – which would make a criminal offence to belong to it, attend its meetings or carry its logo – was certainly on the cards.

"It would be wrong of me to speculate about the outcome of the government's current consideration of this issue, which is active," Mr Docherty said during a debate in the House of Commons last week. "But I can say that I think the calls right across the house, and the unity with which these calls are being made on all sides will be noted by the government and this is something that we regard as extremely serious."

Under the current Iranian leadership, there is a pattern of singling out the UK to bear the brunt of these degraded relationships. The tensions between the diplomats, foreign office ministers and leading politicians such as Ms Kearns always revolve around whether or not a strict stance will goad and fuel Iran.

Tehran’s appetite to take this to the next stage certainly seems to be strong just now, although proscribing the IRGC could certainly trigger retaliation. There is little good in pretending that the dynamic is not already playing out.

The problem is that there are not many options left other than to take the strongest self-defence steps in such a poisoned situation.