Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
July 24, 2022
In Tehran last week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he is categorically opposed to Moscow’s plan to outsource its Syria mission to Iran. This is according to sources familiar with the talks at the Russia-Turkey-Iran summit convened under the pretext of reviving the Astana Peace Process for the war-torn country.
Mr Erdogan softened his warning to the Iranians, saying that Ankara would not accept Tehran’s expansion of its support to the Assad regime. These designs are mere wishes with no real prospects, he added. But Mr Erdogan also stressed that any attempt by Iran to dominate Syria would be in direct contradiction with Turkey’s national interests – and that Ankara is very serious about its national interests.
The Iranian leadership, meanwhile, confirmed to Mr Putin that it is ready to take control of Syria. Mr Putin acknowledged that Russia’s role in the country is waning due to its preoccupation with Ukraine. While accepting Mr Erdogan’s warning on Iran, the Russian President told the Iranian leaders that Moscow remains a strategic ally to Tehran, and that it grants the latter the mandate to replace Russia in Syria at this juncture – regardless of Mr Erdogan’s views and threats. Mr Putin went further, according to my sources, accepting that Lebanon’s future is subject to Iran’s calculations, as the Kremlin understands Tehran’s interests in that country.
Contrary to some perceptions, the Tehran summit was not convened in response to the GCC+ summit in Jeddah earlier this month. It was designed to try to reach a trilateral division of roles in Syria. And while they all agreed to continue the dialogue, no agreement was found.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pose for a photo in Tehran before holding a meeting on Syria. AFP
The meeting followed the so-called Astana Format discussions on Syria. AFP
It was Mr Putin's first overseas trip outside Russia since his country's invasion of Ukraine began in February. AFP
Mr Putin was also expected to discuss the Ukraine war with Mr Erdogan at the meeting. Reuters
The meeting comes only days after Russian and Ukrainian officials met Turkish officials to mediate an agreement on grain exports. AFP
Mr Putin was also expected to discuss the stalled international discussions on reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iranian officials. AFP
The connection between Russia and Iran has deepened as they both support Syria's President Bashar Al Assad while Turkey, by contrast, backs rebel factions in the north-western parts of the country. AP
The US issued a warning last week that Iran was preparing to send Russia hundreds of drones, including models capable of carrying weapons, amid significant losses by Moscow’s military as Mr Putin's war approaches its sixth month. Reuters
Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds talks with Mr Putin and Mr Raisi in Tehran. EPA
Mr Putin is in Iran to deepen ties with regional heavyweights as part of a challenge to the US and Europe, which have imposed sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine. AP
Mr Erdogan showed little interest in co-operating with Russia in Syria. While he did tell Mr Putin that he was keen to find a common language to avoid confrontation, he also reaffirmed that Turkey’s assessment of its interests has not changed – and that Ankara will continue to carry out military operations in Syria when needed. Moscow understands that Ankara is even more determined to create buffer zone in northern Syria, particularly as Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine and the US is preoccupied with Russia, Ukraine and Iran.
Be that as it may, Tehran considers Syria to be vital for its regional project. It seeks to extend what it considers to be its "frontline" with Israel, from Lebanon to Syria, because this would give it leverage during times of confrontation.
During their bilateral meeting, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi requested Mr Putin to increase pressure on the other UN Security Council members involved in the talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. Mr Raisi stressed to Mr Putin that Iran will not make concessions that would make it look weak, including accepting the US's refusal to delist the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group. Whether Tehran's position negates any chances of a deal remains to be seen.
Of utmost importance to both Russia and Iran is the speedy conclusion of their pact. I am given to understand that two leaders discussed the possibility of Mr Putin returning to Tehran to sign the pact that would resemble the one the Iranian regime signed with China last year. Progress on this front shows that, even as the US continues to be in retreat from the Middle East, the China-Russia-Iran alliance is being advanced pragmatically, meticulously and resolutely.
US President Joe Biden’s visit to the region failed to reverse some Arab states' gradual shift away from Washington's orbit. And as long this trend continues, the prospects for a US-led axis in the region remain weak.
At the Tehran summit, Hezbollah may have been a notable absentee but it remains Iran’s strongest proxy in Syria and Lebanon. Mr Erdogan has traditionally not raised the issue regarding the militia group’s presence in Syria, but he could be forced to do so when Iran starts implementing its project there. Hezbollah is moving to position itself either alongside Iran’s forces or on their behalf, as and when circumstances dictate.
Iran is using its proxies in Lebanon to put pressure on Israel. AFP
In Lebanon, where the group doubles up as a political party, it is in the midst of turning the country's oil and gas resources into ammunition for its "resistance" – despite the country's economic problems and its urgent need to monetise those resources. Hezbollah is doing so by threatening to obstruct the proposed demarcation of maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel. Its two key objectives are: securing its share of Lebanon's wealth, and ensuring its unhindered movements between Lebanon and Syria by both land and sea.
It is ironic that a US-Iran-Israel deal on nuclear and security issues and the resulting de-escalation are a much better choice for the likes of Syria and Lebanon – despite the free rein this option would give to Iran and Israel – than the choice of military confrontation. It is clear that Iran and Russia have decided to commandeer Lebanon and Syria for their mutual interests and calculations related to containment of Israel when needed. The Biden administration is still caught between wishing for a deal with Iran, hesitating about pressuring Tehran and Hezbollah for fear of retaliation, threatening to restore Trump-era “maximum pressure” sanctions on the Iranian regime, and/or blaming everything on the previous administration due to its withdrawal from the deal with Iran.
In the meantime, the realignment continues amid global political chaos. Perhaps the best scenario in the Levant at this juncture is the continuation of the status quo with all its flaws.
Test squad: Azhar Ali (captain), Abid Ali, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Haris Sohail, Imam-ul-Haq, Imran Khan, Iftikhar Ahmed, Kashif Bhatti, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Rizwan(wicketkeeper), Musa Khan, Naseem Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Shan Masood, Yasir Shah
Twenty20 squad: Babar Azam (captain), Asif Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Haris Sohail, Iftikhar Ahmed, Imad Wasim, Imam-ul-Haq, Khushdil Shah, Mohammad Amir, Mohammad Hasnain, Mohammad Irfan, Mohammad Rizwan (wicketkeeper), Musa Khan, Shadab Khan, Usman Qadir, Wahab Riaz
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally • Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered • Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity • Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
The Facility’s Versatility
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
Grand Slam titles: 2 (French Open 2016, Wimbledon 2017)
Career prize money: $13,928,719
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
Travel distance: Limited
Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
Duration: Can linger for days
Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
Source: Can be carried from distant regions
The biog
First Job: Abu Dhabi Department of Petroleum in 1974
Current role: Chairperson of Al Maskari Holding since 2008
Career high: Regularly cited on Forbes list of 100 most powerful Arab Businesswomen
Achievement: Helped establish Al Maskari Medical Centre in 1969 in Abu Dhabi’s Western Region
Future plan: Will now concentrate on her charitable work
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
