Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks after a summit with Iranian and Turkish leaders in Tehran last week. EPA
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks after a summit with Iranian and Turkish leaders in Tehran last week. EPA
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks after a summit with Iranian and Turkish leaders in Tehran last week. EPA
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks after a summit with Iranian and Turkish leaders in Tehran last week. EPA


The many ways the Russia-Turkey-Iran triangle is reshaping the Middle East


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July 24, 2022

In Tehran last week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he is categorically opposed to Moscow’s plan to outsource its Syria mission to Iran. This is according to sources familiar with the talks at the Russia-Turkey-Iran summit convened under the pretext of reviving the Astana Peace Process for the war-torn country.

Mr Erdogan softened his warning to the Iranians, saying that Ankara would not accept Tehran’s expansion of its support to the Assad regime. These designs are mere wishes with no real prospects, he added. But Mr Erdogan also stressed that any attempt by Iran to dominate Syria would be in direct contradiction with Turkey’s national interests – and that Ankara is very serious about its national interests.

The Iranian leadership, meanwhile, confirmed to Mr Putin that it is ready to take control of Syria. Mr Putin acknowledged that Russia’s role in the country is waning due to its preoccupation with Ukraine. While accepting Mr Erdogan’s warning on Iran, the Russian President told the Iranian leaders that Moscow remains a strategic ally to Tehran, and that it grants the latter the mandate to replace Russia in Syria at this juncture – regardless of Mr Erdogan’s views and threats. Mr Putin went further, according to my sources, accepting that Lebanon’s future is subject to Iran’s calculations, as the Kremlin understands Tehran’s interests in that country.

Contrary to some perceptions, the Tehran summit was not convened in response to the GCC+ summit in Jeddah earlier this month. It was designed to try to reach a trilateral division of roles in Syria. And while they all agreed to continue the dialogue, no agreement was found.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pose for a photo in Tehran before holding a meeting on Syria. AFP
    Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pose for a photo in Tehran before holding a meeting on Syria. AFP
  • The meeting followed the so-called Astana Format discussions on Syria. AFP
    The meeting followed the so-called Astana Format discussions on Syria. AFP
  • It was Mr Putin's first overseas trip outside Russia since his country's invasion of Ukraine began in February. AFP
    It was Mr Putin's first overseas trip outside Russia since his country's invasion of Ukraine began in February. AFP
  • Mr Putin was also expected to discuss the Ukraine war with Mr Erdogan at the meeting. Reuters
    Mr Putin was also expected to discuss the Ukraine war with Mr Erdogan at the meeting. Reuters
  • The meeting comes only days after Russian and Ukrainian officials met Turkish officials to mediate an agreement on grain exports. AFP
    The meeting comes only days after Russian and Ukrainian officials met Turkish officials to mediate an agreement on grain exports. AFP
  • Mr Putin was also expected to discuss the stalled international discussions on reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iranian officials. AFP
    Mr Putin was also expected to discuss the stalled international discussions on reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iranian officials. AFP
  • The connection between Russia and Iran has deepened as they both support Syria's President Bashar Al Assad while Turkey, by contrast, backs rebel factions in the north-western parts of the country. AP
    The connection between Russia and Iran has deepened as they both support Syria's President Bashar Al Assad while Turkey, by contrast, backs rebel factions in the north-western parts of the country. AP
  • The US issued a warning last week that Iran was preparing to send Russia hundreds of drones, including models capable of carrying weapons, amid significant losses by Moscow’s military as Mr Putin's war approaches its sixth month. Reuters
    The US issued a warning last week that Iran was preparing to send Russia hundreds of drones, including models capable of carrying weapons, amid significant losses by Moscow’s military as Mr Putin's war approaches its sixth month. Reuters
  • Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds talks with Mr Putin and Mr Raisi in Tehran. EPA
    Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds talks with Mr Putin and Mr Raisi in Tehran. EPA
  • Mr Putin is in Iran to deepen ties with regional heavyweights as part of a challenge to the US and Europe, which have imposed sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine. AP
    Mr Putin is in Iran to deepen ties with regional heavyweights as part of a challenge to the US and Europe, which have imposed sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine. AP

Mr Erdogan showed little interest in co-operating with Russia in Syria. While he did tell Mr Putin that he was keen to find a common language to avoid confrontation, he also reaffirmed that Turkey’s assessment of its interests has not changed – and that Ankara will continue to carry out military operations in Syria when needed. Moscow understands that Ankara is even more determined to create buffer zone in northern Syria, particularly as Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine and the US is preoccupied with Russia, Ukraine and Iran.

Be that as it may, Tehran considers Syria to be vital for its regional project. It seeks to extend what it considers to be its "frontline" with Israel, from Lebanon to Syria, because this would give it leverage during times of confrontation.

During their bilateral meeting, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi requested Mr Putin to increase pressure on the other UN Security Council members involved in the talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. Mr Raisi stressed to Mr Putin that Iran will not make concessions that would make it look weak, including accepting the US's refusal to delist the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group. Whether Tehran's position negates any chances of a deal remains to be seen.

Of utmost importance to both Russia and Iran is the speedy conclusion of their pact. I am given to understand that two leaders discussed the possibility of Mr Putin returning to Tehran to sign the pact that would resemble the one the Iranian regime signed with China last year. Progress on this front shows that, even as the US continues to be in retreat from the Middle East, the China-Russia-Iran alliance is being advanced pragmatically, meticulously and resolutely.

US President Joe Biden’s visit to the region failed to reverse some Arab states' gradual shift away from Washington's orbit. And as long this trend continues, the prospects for a US-led axis in the region remain weak.

At the Tehran summit, Hezbollah may have been a notable absentee but it remains Iran’s strongest proxy in Syria and Lebanon. Mr Erdogan has traditionally not raised the issue regarding the militia group’s presence in Syria, but he could be forced to do so when Iran starts implementing its project there. Hezbollah is moving to position itself either alongside Iran’s forces or on their behalf, as and when circumstances dictate.

Iran is using its proxies in Lebanon to put pressure on Israel. AFP
Iran is using its proxies in Lebanon to put pressure on Israel. AFP

In Lebanon, where the group doubles up as a political party, it is in the midst of turning the country's oil and gas resources into ammunition for its "resistance" – despite the country's economic problems and its urgent need to monetise those resources. Hezbollah is doing so by threatening to obstruct the proposed demarcation of maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel. Its two key objectives are: securing its share of Lebanon's wealth, and ensuring its unhindered movements between Lebanon and Syria by both land and sea.

It is ironic that a US-Iran-Israel deal on nuclear and security issues and the resulting de-escalation are a much better choice for the likes of Syria and Lebanon – despite the free rein this option would give to Iran and Israel – than the choice of military confrontation. It is clear that Iran and Russia have decided to commandeer Lebanon and Syria for their mutual interests and calculations related to containment of Israel when needed. The Biden administration is still caught between wishing for a deal with Iran, hesitating about pressuring Tehran and Hezbollah for fear of retaliation, threatening to restore Trump-era “maximum pressure” sanctions on the Iranian regime, and/or blaming everything on the previous administration due to its withdrawal from the deal with Iran.

In the meantime, the realignment continues amid global political chaos. Perhaps the best scenario in the Levant at this juncture is the continuation of the status quo with all its flaws.

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill

Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
 
  • Grade 9 = above an A*
  • Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
  • Grade 7 = grade A
  • Grade 6 = just above a grade B
  • Grade 5 = between grades B and C
  • Grade 4 = grade C
  • Grade 3 = between grades D and E
  • Grade 2 = between grades E and F
  • Grade 1 = between grades F and G
What are the influencer academy modules?
  1. Mastery of audio-visual content creation. 
  2. Cinematography, shots and movement.
  3. All aspects of post-production.
  4. Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
  5. Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
  6. Tourism industry knowledge.
  7. Professional ethics.
THREE
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The Bio

Name: Lynn Davison

Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi

Children: She has one son, Casey, 28

Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK

Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho

Favourite Author: CJ Sansom

Favourite holiday destination: Bali

Favourite food: A Sunday roast

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Avatar: Fire and Ash

Director: James Cameron

Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana

Rating: 4.5/5

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Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
South Africa World Cup squad

South Africa: Faf du Plessis (c), Hashim Amla, Quinton de Kock (w), JP Duminy, Imran Tahir, Aiden Markram, David Miller, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Kagiso Rabada, Tabraiz Shamsi, Dale Steyn, Rassie van der Dussen.

Queen

Nicki Minaj

(Young Money/Cash Money)

The%20Hunger%20Games%3A%20The%20Ballad%20of%20Songbirds%20%26%20Snakes
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HIJRA

Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy

Director: Shahad Ameen

Rating: 3/5

The specs: 2019 Haval H6

Price, base: Dh69,900

Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder

Transmission: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm

Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km

Dubai World Cup factbox

Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)

Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)

Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)

Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)

The specs

Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)

Company profile

Name: Dukkantek 

Started: January 2021 

Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani 

Based: UAE 

Number of employees: 140 

Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service) 

Investment: $5.2 million 

Funding stage: Seed round 

Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office  

The President's Cake

Director: Hasan Hadi

Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem 

Rating: 4/5

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
Indian origin executives leading top technology firms

Sundar Pichai

Chief executive, Google and Alphabet

Satya Nadella

Chief executive, Microsoft

Ajaypal Singh Banga

President and chief executive, Mastercard

Shantanu Narayen

Chief executive, chairman, and president, Adobe

Indra Nooyi  

Board of directors, Amazon and former chief executive, PepsiCo

 

 

Like a Fading Shadow

Antonio Muñoz Molina

Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez

Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Updated: July 25, 2022, 10:08 AM