Brexit vote presents a challenge for this Jersey boy

Peter Hellyer weighs in on the campaign over whether Britain should leave the European Union.

Campaigners in favour of the so-called brexit. Christopher Furlong / Getty Images

Next month, Britain votes on continued membership of the European Union. Those favouring an exit, or Brexit, including several cabinet ministers, warn of uncontrolled waves of immigration or of the emergence of an unelected superstate. Those in favour of remaining, led by prime minister David Cameron, suggest that house prices would slump, national security would be threatened, and that ISIL and Russian president Vladimir Putin would rejoice if the UK left. There is plenty of hyperbole, but little in the way of verifiable fact.

I’ve been away too long to qualify for a vote, have relocated my British links to Jersey, which isn’t an EU member, and am now committed, in a variety of ways, to the UAE. That doesn’t mean that I don’t have views on the issue. With decades of political engagement within the United Kingdom, it could hardly be otherwise. I admire – and loathe – people on both sides of the remain/leave debate. My views, too, are split between the two sides.

I supported Britain’s entry into the original European Economic Community. It made excellent sense. I view with distaste the concept of “ever-closer union” between EU members, though fortunately a UK opt-out has now been accepted. I was against British adoption of the euro – and thank goodness that didn’t happen. The UK’s history is linked closely to those of its nearest neighbours. Britain, though, has little in common with EU members in eastern or south-eastern Europe, which have neither a colonial heritage nor a large number of inhabitants whose origins are in vanished overseas empires. In the east, west and south, perceptions of the greatest external threats vary enormously.

Britain, through the Commonwealth, has historical, ethnic and other links that span the globe. Yet Commonwealth citizens lack the freedom to enter and to work in the UK that is enjoyed by other EU citizens. A Pole can enter the UK freely, but an Australian or a Jamaican cannot. It’s little wonder that that arouses criticism.

Would a Brexit revitalise the campaign for Scottish separation from the United Kingdom? Probably – and I would not welcome that. British-Irish ties are at their warmest in 100 years. How would Brexit affect those relations? What about Jersey, so close to the French coast?

How would the rest of the world react? American president Barack Obama has said that Britain, outside the EU, couldn’t expect to be at the front of the queue for new trading agreements, although other US politicians suggest otherwise. China, Japan and Canada have made it clear they support continued membership.

Yet, in my view, the recent record of the EU has been dismal. The euro crisis is far from being resolved and the EU has failed to tackle effectively the challenges posed by the wave of millions of migrants and refugees. These and other facts engender little confidence in the ability of the EU and its members to move forward. As it staggers uncertainly ahead, it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that dramatic, perhaps unappealing, change awaits. And that’s without considering the overweening EU bureaucracy, with its over-regulation, lack of transparency and, often, evident contempt for the democratically expressed views of the citizens of member countries. The comment by EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker that the British will be “deserters” if they vote to leave is, frankly, insulting.

A slimmed-down Brussels bureaucracy, a review of freedom of movement, a recognition that millennia of historical and cultural differences matter, hugely, to many ordinary people – these might make a British vote to remain more reasonable. But they are not on offer. Yet Britain’s future outside the EU would, indeed, be unpredictable, economically and otherwise.

The issue is hugely complex, yet the increasingly shrill debate remains focused more on fear than on fact. Polls suggest that many are still undecided or won’t vote. I’m firmly in the undecided group. Perhaps it’s just as well that I don’t have a vote.

Peter Hellyer is a consultant specialising in the UAE’s history and culture