The horrific beachfront terrorist attack in Sousse came barely three months after the assault on tourists entering Tunisia’s Bardo museum, which left 22 dead. Sousse, where the latest tally is 38 dead, has shattered Tunisian hopes that Bardo was the act of two or three renegade jihadists.
Now, Tunisia is confronted with a very different reality. It is clear that it is under attack from those who are determined to see that Tunisia does not succeed in the next phase of its democratic transition. It is clear that home-grown jihadists will do their utmost to destabilise the country, which means attacking its largest economic driver, the tourism industry.
There is much talk of the government taking effective action, but this is easier said than done. Battling to save the tourist-friendly image of a country that has suffered two terrorist attacks this year is a huge challenge. The government needs to get the word out that it is serious about security. But some industry veterans believe that Tunisia’s problems are larger than the fear induced by the two attacks. Its very neighbourhood does not convey a sense of security.
Even so, as a senior executive of a large Sousse hotel noted right after the atrocity on the beach, Tunisia needs to take immediate steps to show that it has put new security measures in place and a security presence must be visible in front of hotels, inside hotels and on the beach.
Some doubt that this will make Tunisia attractive to tourists but while the situation stabilises and the government cracks down on extremists and enforces improved security measures, it needs to calm the panic in a sector that employs up to 500,000 people. Imagine what would happen if there were massive layoffs, says Makram Halloul, of a four-star hotel in Sousse: “Imagine the social costs if some 100,000 employees were to be laid off, each with a spouse and two children ... an additional 400,000 hungry Tunisians could lead to another revolution, or worse.”
Some hoteliers suggest that the government should immediately implement an incentive package for hotels in exchange for no layoffs, perhaps in the form of a two or three- month tax furlough.
After the Bardo attack, which resulted in hotel cancellations throughout the country, tourism industry stakeholders complained about insufficient government action.
Tourism minister Selma Elloumi-Rekik, who is relatively new to the job, visited Paris right after the attack, but no one spelt out a clear and effective communications strategy to reassure potential summer travellers from Europe and travel agents that Tunisia was safe.
After Bardo, hotels in every price range, from five-star seaside resorts that take holiday-makers and business delegations to smaller places, had immediate cancellations. The “sun and sea” coach tour hotels in resort towns such as Sousse and Hammamet suffered significant cancellations. In the three-month interim, there have been few new bookings. Many cruise ships stopped calling after Bardo; docking requests were cancelled not just for 2015 but 2016 as well. After Sousse, hotels are reporting cancellations for the rest of the summer from British, Belgium, Polish and Scandinavian tour operators.
This is particularly tragic because just weeks before the Sousse attack, the tourism ministry had tried to showcase Tunisia internationally once again. French tour operators were invited to the capital, Tunis, in the hope of reversing the 20 per cent decline in French visitor numbers.
The Sousse tragedy has put paid to that for the moment but the bigger problems for Tunisia lie in the months ahead: the long-term fallout of the attacks on its major industry. President Beji Caid Essebsi’s Nidaa Tounes party’s election campaign in late 2014 was all about creating jobs. If the government cannot do much even with Tunisia’s biggest employer, then the hope of that election win may turn to despair.
Jerry Sorkin is a tourism expert, emeritus president of the American Tunisian Association and lives part of the year in Tunis
On Twitter: @tunis_usa
