Harris struggles to convince voters that Trump could threaten democracy

Our polling data suggests people either don't buy the doom-and-gloom predictions of what a second Trump term would bring, or are too stressed about their financial situations to care. AFP

Vice President Kamala Harris’s closing argument for American voters has veered far from her initially “joyful” platform: she now says the November 5 presidential election is a referendum on democracy.

An increasingly panicked campaign in which Ms Harris’s early momentum has sputtered is sounding the alarm over what a second Donald Trump term could be like. She has warned that he wants to shred the US Constitution, rule like a dictator and has expressed admiration for Adolf Hitler and his Nazi generals.

Last week, the Vice President called her opponent a fascist who wanted unchecked power. “The question in 13 days will be, what do the American people want?” she said outside her Washington home.

It is a question that may well come back to haunt her.

According to a new poll commissioned by The National, threats to democracy are a primary concern for only a relatively small number of voters. When respondents were asked the three most important problems facing them and their families, only 10 per cent listed threats to democracy as a top issue.

The thing people are most worried about? It's the economy, stupid.

James Carville, the Democratic consultant who coined that phrase back in 1992, appeared on CNN at the weekend to say he was convinced Ms Harris would win next week because people are deeply concerned about an authoritarian Mr Trump returning to the White House.

“It’s the Constitution, stupid,” Mr Carville said.

Our polling data suggests people either don't buy the doom-and-gloom predictions of what a second Trump term would bring, or are too stressed about their financial situations to care.

The Biden administration says the US economy is the envy of the world, with macroeconomic trends all moving in the right direction: dropping interest rates, low unemployment, a well-performing stock market and increasing consumer confidence.

But in an ominous sign for Ms Harris, millions of Americans remain convinced the economy is far worse than it is. In our survey, respondents said prices and the economy were their main worries, with 51 per cent and 40 per cent respectively selecting these among their top three concerns. Next on the list: immigration, health care, reproductive rights, housing and crime – with threats to democracy coming in eighth place.

American voters are scarred by soaring post-pandemic inflation and say everything – from homes to petrol to food – still costs far too much. They remember the early part of Mr Trump's term in office fondly, when the economy was growing and inflation was low. The Federal Reserve may have navigated a soft landing, but that matters little to someone working two jobs who still can't make ends meet.

Gore Vidal once called America the “United States of Amnesia” and it's a term that applies today. Many people have forgotten the chaos of the Covid pandemic and Mr Trump's mishandling of the crisis that killed more than one million Americans, instead opting to direct their ire at President Joe Biden and Ms Harris for the continuing high prices.

Job growth was slower under Donald Trump than Joe Biden. Reuters

Mr Trump and the Republicans have crafted their entire campaign around two things: the cost of living and high rates of illegal immigration, issues that resonate with voters as they worry about job security and prices.

Ms Harris has struggled to deliver a coherent message on the economy. When asked about it, the Vice President gives rambling, circuitous answers about how many Nobel Laureates and Wall Street institutions have endorsed her proposals.

Mr Trump, on the other hand, gives simple albeit fallacious answers, telling people he will magically make everything better again. Many economists agree that his proposed tariffs, mass deportations and tax cuts would expand the deficit and spark new rounds of inflation.

Instead of explaining this or touting improvements to the economy under the Biden administration, Ms Harris gets bogged down when talking about her economic vision and reverts to discussing her own middle-class upbringing and an “opportunity economy”.

The result: voters appear willing to roll the dice with democracy in hopes of things getting better for their wallets.

The National's survey, conducted by Deltapoll, also asked more than 3,000 adults – including 1,340 swing-state voters – about foreign policy. Only 3 per cent of respondents listed the war in Gaza as one of the top three concerns facing them and their families.

However, when asked the broader question of how important the war Middle East is in determining their presidential pick, 71 per cent said it was either “very” or “fairly” important, while 23 per cent said it was not important. Six per cent were unsure.

In other words, many people will be thinking about the Middle East conflict in some capacity as they consider their presidential pick – or decide whether to bother voting at all. Democrats in critical swing states such as Michigan, with its large Arab-American population, may opt to stay home instead of voting for Ms Harris, who like her boss has pledged unflinching support for Israel even as the war has expanded to Lebanon and beyond.

Just as she has struggled with the economy, Ms Harris has been unable to address the concerns of Arab Americans and made the blunder of not allowing pro-Palestinians to speak at the Democratic National Convention over the summer.

Meanwhile Mr Trump, who has pledged a new travel ban and whose Republican Party has promised to bar Gazan refugees from entering the US, is gaining support from the Arab-American community by saying he will stop the war.

Our poll shows the election will come down to a few voters in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. On voting intention, Ms Harris has a 3 per cent lead in the popular vote, but Mr Trump leads by 1 per cent in the swing states.

At this stage in the race, it feels like 2016 all over again, with Mr Trump on course to win the electoral college and lose the popular vote. Eight years ago, Hillary Clinton failed to make her case in the places that count. It appears Ms Harris is making the same mistakes now.