The UN Security Council held a sixth vote on Friday to choose the next Secretary General, with Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan still narrowly leading in the race.
Ms Grynspan has remained the front-runner, securing the minimum nine encouraging votes in the latest round and five discouraging votes, including two red from permanent Security Council members.
Argentina's Rafael Grossi secured eight encouraging votes and six discouraging votes, while Guyana's Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett also received eight encouraging votes and six discouraging votes. Both faced opposition from two permanent members.
Panamanian President Jose Mulino, whose country is one of the non-permanent members of the Security Council, declared ahead of the vote that Panama’s vote would go for Mr Grossi.
Unlike the five previous rounds of voting, Friday’s poll offered a clearer picture of which candidates had a realistic chance of becoming the next UN Secretary General and which faced opposition from the world's most powerful nations.
For the first time in this selection process, council members cast colour-coded ballots, distinguishing the votes of the five permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia and the US — from those of the 10 elected members.
Minh-Thu Pham, co-founder of the Starling Institute and a former adviser to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, said the narrowing gap between the three leading candidates underscored the growing uncertainty surrounding the race.
“Compared to previous rounds, differences between the top three are very, very slim now,” Ms Pham told The National.
“It seems to be a split decision with no P5 convergence. It means there is a path open for new entrants,” she said, referring to the five permanent members of the Security Council.
Still, Ms Pham warned that a new contender would not necessarily break the deadlock.
"It could get messy," she said.
None of the seven candidates who participated in the October 16 poll has withdrawn, and no new candidates have entered the race yet.
US ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said after the vote that Washington wanted a Secretary General who would refocus the organisation on its core mandate of maintaining international peace and security.
“We think that this institution needs strong, energetic leadership that is going to take the United Nations back to basics,” Mr Waltz told reporters, calling for greater efficiency and a renewed emphasis on peace and security.
He also played down the importance of regional rotation and gender in selecting the next UN chief, saying Washington's priority was finding the most qualified candidate.
“We understand there is a desire for regional rotation. Of course, if the best candidate's a woman, we would welcome that, but we really just need the best candidate,” Mr Waltz said. “This institution, after 80 years, has tried to become everything to everyone, and we need it. We put it on a diet, so to speak.”
On the timeline, Ms Pham said it was encouraging to hear Mr Waltz say he thinks the council can finish before the end of the year.
“Otherwise it could deepen doubts about the Council and the UN,” she said.
But Ms Pham warned that time was running out for new candidates to enter the race and secure sufficient support for the post.
“Even if the US, China, and Russia agreed behind the scenes on a candidate, we’re in an environment where the other Council members may not go along,” she said.
Unlike in 2006, when Washington and Beijing were able to rally support for Ban Ki-moon, Ms Pham suggested the US could now favour a candidate who would struggle to win broader backing.
Any attempt to accelerate the process could also provoke resistance from the General Assembly, she said, particularly if the Council moved to vote on new candidates without giving them an opportunity to participate in the usual informal hearings.
“A lot of pieces have to fall into place, and we’re running out of time,” she said.
