The World Meteorological Organisation forecast on Friday that a rapidly strengthening El Nino will drive above-normal temperatures across much of the world over the next three months.
The UN weather agency's update forecasts the tropical Pacific warming event will intensify quickly during the August-October period, with climate models pointing to a strong El Nino peaking later in the year and showing unusually high agreement among forecasting systems.
“The multi-model ensemble indicates a rapid development towards strong El Nino conditions,” the report said, forecasting the Nino 3.4°C sea surface temperature anomaly to average about 2.9°C during August through October before “the intensification trajectory” peaks in November.
It added that “the spread among individual forecast systems remains narrow, reflecting high forecast confidence”.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said the report shows the world is in “uncharted territory”.
“WMO’s outlook shows that through October, nearly every land area on Earth is expected to be hotter than normal,” he said. “Taken together, that risks shattering every seasonal record – and driving even more severe effects worldwide.”
The WMO said forecasts showed a “nearly universal global dominance” of above-normal temperatures across land areas, particularly in Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, western North America, Central America and the Caribbean.
“We must also tackle the root cause of this crisis by rapidly reducing emissions, accelerating the clean energy transition, and finally ending fossil fuel expansion,” Selwin Hart, special adviser to the UN Secretary General on climate action.
Southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand are also expected to see warmer-than-normal conditions.
Rainfall patterns are also expected to shift sharply in what the agency described as “a classic, strong atmospheric response to Pacific El Nino”.
The report forecasts below-normal rainfall across the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, parts of Central America and the Caribbean, and north-western South America.
Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, the northern Arabian Peninsula and south-eastern South America.
Southern Europe is forecast to be wetter than normal, while northern Europe is expected to be drier, although confidence there is lower.
-
Spain's Military Emergencies Unit personnel fight a wildfire near Navas del Rey, 55km south-west of Madrid. AFP -
Scorched ground in the Camino de Navahonda area, following a wildfire near Robledo de Chavela, 60km west of Madrid. AFP -
A man and his dog look out over a wildfire in a mountain in Onda, Spain, on July 27. Reuters -
Pedalo boats on a reservoir shrouded in smoke from a wildfire near Navas del Rey. AFP -
Burnt buildings in an area affected by a wildfire, in Le Porge, Gironde, amid drought conditions following a heatwave and water shortages across much of France. Reuters -
The wildfire ravaging the forest north of the Arcachon Basin since July 22 is also threatening the outskirts of Bordeaux, France. AFP -
People displaced by the wildfires are being housed at an exhibition centre in Bordeaux. AFP -
Burnt cars following a wildfire in Gironde's Le Porge commune in France. AFP -
The Paris Fire Brigade in action at Marcheprime, west of Bordeaux. AFP -
Smoke from nearby 'unpredictable' wildfires cover the Bordeaux city skyline on July 26. AFP -
Wildfires also broke out across parts of Spain from July 24, with firefighters from the Castilla-y-Leon Military Emergencies unit battling blazes in a forest next to La Atalaya residential area, 80km west of Madrid. AFP -
In western Madrid, two wildfires merged into a massive blaze with residents helping to water the soil in the industrial area of San Martin de Valdeiglesias. AFP -
A Community of Madrid forest ranger rescues a dog from a house evacuated due to the San Martin de Valdeiglesias wildfire. AFP -
Queen Letizia of Spain visits evacuees from the Madrid wildfire who are sheltered at La Chopera sports centre in Villamanta. AFP -
Smoke rises from a wildfire progressing in Betxi, Spain. Reuters -
A hydroplane sprays water to extinguish a fire in Betxi, Castellon. EPA -
Martin de Valdeiglesias residents help Spain's Military Emergencies unit tackle the wildfire in wooded areas. Reuters
It comes as climate events continue to wreak havoc around the world. Canada has reported one of its worst wildfire seasons, with smoke affecting air quality as far south as South Carolina, while France continues to battle fires across the country.
“The verdict is clear: the climate crisis is in overdrive,” Mr Guterres said, emphasising the need to confront the dangers of extreme heat worldwide. “The warm-up act is over. We cannot afford to wait for the main event.
