The Arabian Peninsula has seen temperatures on the hottest days of the year rise by what feels like 4°C since the 1970s, a sharper increase than in many other parts of the world, a study has shown.
As a result, more people are being put at risk from heat stress, research from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows. Climate scientists have warned that continued increases are probable, with current average temperatures in the Arabian Peninsula set to increase by as much as 6°C by the end of the century if carbon emissions remain high.
Published in Nature Climate Change, the study looks at a combination of temperature, wind and humidity called the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). This is seen as giving a more realistic estimate of how hot it feels, rather than relying on temperatures alone.
Researchers compared conditions measured between 2015 and 2024 with figures from the 1970s.
Global temperatures on rise
On every continent, extreme heat stress has become common and some previously unaffected areas now experience episodes. “Pronounced trends are observed across the globe, with some of the largest changes seen in Europe, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and North America,” the ECMWF said.
“In southern Europe and parts of northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, for example, the maximum UTCI on the 10 warmest days of the year is up to 4°C warmer in our current climate than in the 1970s.”
Dr Rebecca Emerton, the study’s lead author and a senior scientist at the ECMWF, said in a statement that the research showed a "clear, climate-driven intensification of heat stress across the globe”. Compared to the 1970s, "heat stress is now more severe, more frequent and longer-lasting", she added.
“As a result, more people worldwide are exposed to hazardous heat, driven not only by population growth but by our changing climate.”
Urgent need for climate action
She said the results showed the importance of limiting continued warming and using heat stress in climate risk assessments and early-warning systems “to protect human health”.
Dr Diana Francis, an assistant professor at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi and head of the Environmental and Geophysical Sciences Lab, said the Arabian Peninsula was facing higher-than-average increases in hazardous heat “because climate warming is interacting with the region’s natural climate conditions”.
“Much of the peninsula is extremely dry, so there is little soil moisture or vegetation to absorb heat through evaporation,” said Dr Francis, who is not connected to the study.
“Instead, more of the sun’s energy goes directly into heating the land and air. Clear skies, intense solar radiation and periods of weak wind further raise the 'feels-like' temperature. Along coastal areas, humidity adds another layer of risk by making it harder for the human body to cool through sweating.”
Dr Francis said that because the region started from very high temperatures, even a few more degrees could push conditions into dangerous heat-stress levels. “In simple terms, global warming is the main driver, but the Arabian Peninsula’s dry land, strong sunshine, coastal humidity and persistent heat patterns amplify the impact on people,” she added.
While south-western Europe is recording increases of up to 5°C, in most regions the temperature rises are more modest, at about 2°C to 3°C.
Perils of extreme heat
Dr Niklas Hoehne, of the New Climate Institute in Germany, who is not an author of the study, said that average temperature rises were likely to cause an increase in the number of extreme heat events and make them last longer.
“If the average is going up, the extreme temperature levels go up and it stays hot longer,” he said. “The human body has difficulty coping with the peak and the duration of how long it’s warm.”
He added that conditions became particularly dangerous for people who did not have access to air conditioning.
Dr Francis said the trend of more and increased episodes of extreme heat was “expected to continue”, with summer temperatures rising faster than winter temperatures and northern Arabia warming more strongly than the south.
“Under moderate emissions, average temperatures could rise by about 2°C to 3°C by late century, while under high emissions they could rise by 4°C to 6°C, with summer extremes increasing even more in some northern and central areas," she said. “This means extreme heat and dangerous heat-stress events are likely to become more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting, especially if greenhouse gas emissions remain high.”
UAE embraces AI to tackle issue
The UAE is taking significant steps to tackle the effects of climate change and to better protect the public from the risks of extreme weather.
In September, the National Centre of Meteorology agreed to a five-year partnership with the Abu Dhabi Public Health Centre to support awareness campaigns on heat safety and to help experts develop more accurate studies on the effects of potentially hazardous weather such as high temperatures, poor air quality and sandstorms.
The NCM is to share advanced data on temperatures and humidity levels with the health authority under the strategy.
Meanwhile, researchers in the Emirates have created a forecasting method using artificial intelligence that is said to be 96 per cent accurate in predicting heatwaves.
Better forecasts of extreme weather could help people to take measures to minimise their exposure to extreme heat, said Basit Khan, a research scientist at New York University Abu Dhabi who helped develop the model.
