The El Nino weather system is forecast to intensify in the next three months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall, the World Meteorological Organisation has warned.
The WMO is stepping up its early warning support to help governments, humanitarian agencies, agriculture and health industries, and vulnerable communities to prepare for the potential impact.
The organisation’s Global Seasonal Climate Update warns of a “rapid development” into a strong El Nino event from July to September, continuing to strengthen during the northern hemisphere autumn and having an impact across the globe.
It says multiple forecasts indicate a “consistent and significant” warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature deviations expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring spots.
“El Nino conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo.
“This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall, and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.
“Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives, and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.”
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by above-average sea-surface temperatures, typically occurring every two to seven years. El Ninos last between nine and 12 months, and their impact on global temperatures is usually felt the following year.
Europe has already struggled through heatwave conditions this summer, with record temperatures in the UK, France and Germany.
This was accompanied by localised violent storms, and by worsening drought and the risk of wildfires in some areas.
There have also been warnings of intense heat in the US across the July 4 weekend, as well as extreme heat in parts of Asia.
“Heatwaves like this are what we expect to see in a changing climate,” said John Kennedy, head of climate information at WMO, last week. “In the 50 years since the historic heatwave of 1976, Europe as a whole has warmed by about two degrees. It’s the fastest-warming continent and temperature extremes have increased too.”
French Health Minister Stephanie Rist said on Friday that there were 2,025 excess deaths recorded during the heatwave that hit France last month, adding that the number could still rise.
The WMO last week warned that the record temperatures that hit Western Europe for over a week in late June would worsen the risk of wildfires, given the outlook for sustained high temperatures, very low humidity and dry vegetation.
Two-thousand firefighters were battling several wildfires fanned by strong winds along France's Mediterranean coast on Thursday, as the region grappled with parched conditions. Authorities said 1,500 people had been evacuated from campsites and the airport in Perpignan was closed.
Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, whose minority government faces a no-confidence vote in parliament on Monday over its handling of the heatwave, held a crisis meeting in Marseille. France's weather office has warned that another spell of extreme heat could hit next week.
Mr Lecornu said that 8,700 hectares had burnt in France so far this season, including 1,200 on Wednesday.
