France is set for long-term economic losses as a result of its hottest June week since records began.
The heatwave has triggered a national debate on how to reorganise workflows, particularly in agriculture and construction, in the event of any repeat.
Statistically, the impact of the most recent heatwave may be limited, argued economist Dominique Seux on Monday, offset by falling oil prices after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in electricity demand as households rush to install air conditioning.
But on the ground, the damage is real. Construction workers have been forced to cut their hours, businesses have shifted their opening times to avoid the hottest part of the day and, in Paris, some boulangeries with hot ovens and no air conditioning shut their doors as temperatures exceeded 40°C.
Provisional figures show around 1,000 excess deaths were registered, largely among the elderly population. The final toll is expected to fall between the 5,700 who died in last year's heatwave and the 15,000 in 2003.
Agriculture has been hit hard. Chicken deaths exceeded usual rates by 1,200 per cent, prompting emergency authorisation for farmers to bury carcasses on-site rather than send them to processing plants.
More preparation
French Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard warned of heavy losses in wheat and corn production. During the 2003 summer heatwave, national cereal production decreased 21 per cent.
“It's clear that extreme weather events – heat, but also frost and flooding – are becoming more frequent. We need to prepare for them,” Ms Genevard told daily newspaper Les Echos. She also called on installing air conditioning and cooling systems for animal stock, as well as increasing water reserves for farmers.
It is the latest signal that politicians are no longer focusing on tackling climate change with preventive measures, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions – they are now discussing adaptation methods with renewed urgency.
It appears that promises made years ago have dropped off the radar, including French President Emmanuel Macron's pledge in 2022 to plant one billion trees by 2032. The figure so far is less than 100 million, according to France Inter radio station. The so-called Green Fund, intended for climate change adaptation, has been cut by two thirds over three years.
With the recent heatwave, the government earmarked €100 million ($114 million) in emergency spending to buy air conditioners, fans and other equipment for hospitals. But the question now being asked is a larger one: how much will it cost to adapt to a changing climate that could bring 50°C temperatures to Paris by 2050, as predicted by experts such as climatologist Robert Vautard?
Europe exposed
A recent Allianz report found France could face a $240 billion loss between 2026 and 2030, ahead of Italy ($147 billion), Germany ($131 billion) and Spain ($120 billion). “Extreme heat is emerging as a structural economic risk, with Europe highly exposed,” it said. “For these economies, the fiscal damage from heat is actively eroding the budgetary room from which the adaptation response must be financed.”
Productivity is badly hit by the heat. When temperatures exceed 30°C, work output also decreases by 3 per cent an hour, the Allianz report found. Heat stress also triggers sleep loss that reduces productivity.
The infrastructure built for a different climate is already failing: ageing underground cables have cut power to towns near Paris, forcing residents to throw out refrigerated food, while three nuclear reactors were taken offline to avoid overheating nearby rivers.
The havoc is not restricted to France. In Germany, tram tracks have buckled. In Belgium, asphalt on some roads has melted and moved, prompting emergency repairs.
Existing labour law offers scant protection to those most exposed. France and Germany provide little compensation for seasonal and outdoor workers during extreme heat. “The cost of adaptation therefore falls disproportionately on the workers least able to bear it,” the Allianz report warned.
The heatwave is also reshaping how societies think about work itself. As the crisis moves east, with similar temperatures forecast for Germany, Czech Republic and Hungary in the coming days, sustainable development consultant Elisabeth Laville wrote in an opinion piece in daily newspaper Le Monde that the old divide between white-collar and blue-collar is giving way to a starker one: wet-collar vs dry-collar.
“Dry-collar workers are those who will be able to continue working in protected, air-conditioned, flexible and digitised environments,” she wrote. “Wet-collar workers are those whose activity will depend on physical exertion exposed to increasingly unbearable temperatures.”
