The US negotiating team heading to Islamabad for talks with Iranian officials this weekend will be dealing with a “fragile, high-risk” geopolitical moment.
Barbara Leaf, who was US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, told an online seminar organised by the Middle East Institute that Washington must narrow its focus rather than pursue an all-encompassing agreement.
A key part of the discussions will be the Strait of Hormuz, a critical gateway for the global supply of oil and liquefied natural gas, which is also Iran’s most powerful source of influence.
“The Iranians are going to cling to it, like grim death, as long as they can to get what they want,” Ms Leaf said, referring to their control of the strait.
The US and Israel joined forces in launching strikes on Iran in late February, with the stated goals of degrading its nuclear capabilities and possible regime change, but with growing discontent at home, President Donald Trump is keen to end the conflict.
For Mr Trump, the core issue is keeping the strait open. Iran’s chokehold on it has rattled global markets and is threatening his domestic economic stance. After making the ceasefire conditional on reopening the strait, Iran appeared to close it down again.
Other major issues on the table this weekend will include Iran’s enrichment of uranium, its ballistic missile programme, the lifting of sanctions and its support for proxy groups.
But getting one "mega deal" that encompasses all issues "is not going to happen", and the US team will have to deal with that reality, said Ms Leaf, a former US ambassador to the UAE. Time, she added, is not on the administration's side, as the midterm elections approach this year.
Meanwhile, Israel appears intent on pressing ahead against Hezbollah in Lebanon, having launched large-scale attacks that have so far killed more than 1,500 people. After Israel launched renewed strikes following the announcement of the ceasefire, Iran appeared to largely shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
This week, the US and Israel said any ceasefire agreement would not include Lebanon, but Iran has insisted otherwise.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel would hold ceasefire talks with Lebanon. The US State Department confirmed Washington would host the talks next week.
“The President himself has to manage Israel’s expectations, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s expectations and his ambitions to go further and continue this campaign,” Ms Leaf said. “He’s got to reconcile this great divergence now with the Israelis.”
