Trump's Gulf tour to focus on economic ties, Gaza and Iran

Gulf states expected to seek clearer 'economic vision' from US President as they navigate tariffs and oil slump

Live updates: Follow the latest on Trump's Gulf trip

President Donald Trump will head to three Gulf capitals next week for a high-profile visit that is expected to focus on a series of deals.

He is expected to present a friendly face to the important regional allies, in contrast to some of the tough rhetoric the President has had for the EU, Ukraine and other countries. The trip will “obviously be dollar deal-focused”, a State Department official told The National. “We have Saudi, UAE and potentially Qatar announcements as well.”

The visit was initially billed as Mr Trump's first foreign trip since taking office in January, but he made an unexpected visit to Rome last month for the funeral of Pope Francis. Mr Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE to “strengthen ties” with those countries, the White House said.

Under his “America First” approach to foreign policy, Mr Trump has antagonised allies and trading partners, and overturned long-held US policies on critical issues such as climate and the war in Ukraine. But to the Republican President who has vowed to bring economic prosperity to the US, the Gulf region is an area of significant economic investment opportunities.

A number of corporate leaders and heads of major defence and aerospace companies are expected to join him on the trip. The UAE has already committed to a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment in the US. In Saudi Arabia, his first stop, Mr Trump is set to seal an arms deal with the kingdom worth more than $100 billion, Reuters reported last month.

Gaza war

“He's under some significant public pressure here in Washington that he probably didn't expect at this level,” said Douglas Silliman, president of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “So he's going to want to show Americans that he has got close ties, good economic and political, and maybe security relations too.”

The investment package with Riyadh is expected to last more than four years and builds on talks held under the previous administration. Former president Joe Biden tried to advance the deal as part of a wider effort to expand the Abraham Accords.

But the establishing of official ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been stalled by the continuing war on Gaza following Hamas's deadly attack on October 7, 2023. More than 52,567 Palestinians have been killed since, with more than double that number injured. Much of the coastal enclave has been reduced to rubble and for more than two months Israel has blocked all food and aid from entering.

“The Saudis remained interested in Abraham Accords-type normalisation deal for the vast majority of the war,” a former Biden administration said. “They were pretty adamant, but also recognised that they could not agree to any such agreement while the war was continuing,” the official added, noting that a framework for the deal had been formulated.

US Presidential visits to Saudi Arabia - in pictures

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  Franklin D Roosevelt, US president at the time, meets King Abdulaziz on board the 'USS Quincy' in the Suez Canal on February 14, 1945. Photo: Saudi Press Agency

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  Richard Nixon, US president at the time, visits Saudi Arabia in 1974. Photo: Saudi Press Agency

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  Mr Nixon meets King Faisal in 1974. Photo: Saudi Press Agency

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  George HW Bush, US president at the time, is greeted by King Fahd as he arrives in Saudi Arabia on November 21, 1990. AP

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  George W Bush, US president at the time, meets King Abdullah in 2008. Photo: Saudi Press Agency

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  King Abdullah meets former US president Bill Clinton in Riyadh on April 7, 2010. Saudi Press Agency / AFP

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  King Salman shakes hands with Barack Obama, US president at the time, at Erga Palace in Riyadh on January 27, 2015. AFP

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  Donald Trump, US president at the time, meets Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2017. Photo: Saudi Press Agency

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  Mr Trump meets King Salman in 2017. Photo: Saudi Press Agency

Hamas officials last month said intensive negotiations were under way to reach a Gaza ceasefire agreement before Mr Trump’s visit. But on Monday the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a new offensive in Gaza aimed at defeating Hamas, Experts in Washington said the trip's dates suggest there may be no imminent breakthrough for Gaza.

“I don't think he's going with a concrete, diplomatic agenda,” said Khaled Elgindy, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and an expert on US foreign relations in the Middle East. “He hasn't had a coherent diplomatic approach to the region since he came to office, so I don't see why he would suddenly have one now.”

Still, Gulf capitals are expected to discuss the war and hopes to take part in the enclave's eventual reconstruction. They envision Mr Trump will abandon his plan to empty out Palestinian residents and turn the territory into a beach resort. However, Mr Netanyahu said on Monday that the local population will be moved “for its own protection”.

At the beginning of Mr Trump's first term, in 2017, his first foreign trip was also to Saudi Arabia. He stopped in Israel and the Vatican before attending two summits in Brussels and Sicily.

First lady Melania Trump with Mohammed bin Nayef, who was then Saudi Arabia's crown prince, in 2017. AFP

Much has changed since, analysts say, both in the US and across the Middle East. The trip comes amid a continuing US-China trade war, renewed US pressure on Iran over its nuclear programme and diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Gulf leaders are likely to seek reassurance from Washington that US talks with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme will succeed. Saudi Arabia and several Arab states have welcomed the negotiations, which are mediated by neighbouring Oman.

Tariffs, trade and unpredictable Trump

Gulf states can be optimistic about good relations with the US based on trade, AI development, energy and investments. But there is also cause for concern. Mr Trump last month slapped a 10 per cent tariff rate on the three Gulf states, raising concerns, at least in the medium term, that the levies could hurt their economies.

Mr Silliman said Gulf leaders are likely to want to get a better sense of Mr Trump's economic vision, given the impact any slowdown in global trade could have on oil-producing countries. They will also take the opportunity to be the first to host and be heard by the US President.

“I really do think they want to distinguish themselves as the countries in the world that have the closest relationship with the United States,” Mr Silliman said.

Donald Trump, Melania Trump, King Salman of Saudi Arabia and the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi opening the World Centre for Countering Extremist Thought in Riyadh. EPA