Just when Justin Trudeau thought things could not get any worse, one of his key allies walked out of his cabinet. Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as finance minister this week capped a wretched year for the Canadian Prime Minister, as pressure continues to mount on him to step down after nine years.
Ms Freeland's resignation came weeks after Mr Trudeau broke bread with president-elect Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, hoping to avoid a damaging trade war, as the American leader-in-waiting threatened to impose 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports.
Far from being diplomatic, Mr Trump smelt weakness, suggesting Mr Trudeau could become “governor” after Canada became the 51st US state. This remark did not go down well north of the border.
But Jeffrey Lord, who worked in the White House of former president Ronald Reagan, suggested that Canada should relax.
“President Trump does like to troll Justin Trudeau, which I find amusing,” Mr Lord told The National. “There may be some rivalries between the countries and their respective leaders. President Trump does have a good sense of humour. So this doesn’t surprise me at all.”
Mr Trump’s strategy, according to a diplomatic source, is to soften up Mr Trudeau before the negotiations.
“His view is that Trudeau is on the other side of the table, and I am going to do everything I can to weaken his position,” the source said. “There used to be a saying in Washington, that if you want anything from Canada, don’t do it publicly. Trump’s position is entirely different. Unfortunately for Canada, Trudeau is in a weak position right now.”
While Mr Trudeau has tried to defuse the looming tariff crisis, other Canadian politicians have tried to fight fire with fire, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatening to cut off energy supplies to large parts of the US, potentially leaving 1.5 million homes in New York, Michigan and Illinois without power.
Mr Ford has urged other Canadian provinces and the government to back his hard line, but the country appears split over what to do.
Ms Freeland, in her resignation letter, was scathing about Mr Trudeau’s approach to the impending trade war, which could devastate Canada’s economy.
“Our country today faces a grave challenge," she said. "The incoming administration in the United States is pursuing a policy of aggressive economic nationalism, including the threat of 25 per cent tariffs. We need to take that threat extremely seriously.”
Ms Freeland called on Canada to avoid “costly political gimmicks” in favour of “keeping our fiscal powder dry” ahead of any trade war. And she is not alone in suggesting that Canada should be ready to fight back if diplomacy fails.
“President-elect Trump’s threat of a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian imports is insulting and unwarranted,” said Derek Burney, a former Canadian ambassador to the US.
“His crude 'might is right' ploy would blatantly contravene the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. He favours coercion over co-operation, even with key allies. Sadly, Trump’s announcement reflects the degree to which Canada has fallen in terms of the mutual respect and relevance that has long characterised a special, even privileged relationship.
“If the threat becomes real following Trump’s inauguration, Canada should retaliate with equivalent measures.”
Mr Burney said he supported strengthening the border and voiced hopes that common sense would prevail. But, judging by what happened during the first Trump administration, it would be unwise to expect sweetness and light.
Talks did not go well at the 2018 G7 summit in Charlevoix, Quebec, with Mr Trump lashing out at the Canadian leader on Twitter, calling him “very dishonest” and “weak”. The latest barbs appear to be a continuation of what happened before, and suggest there is little love lost between the two men.
“Trump since the election has both threatened Canada with tariffs and joked about it becoming the 51st state, neither of which are very neighbourly,” Christopher Galdieri, professor of politics at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, told The National.
“This may be Trump playing to his base and mocking Canada – perhaps for being a stable and normal democracy – or it may signal an eagerness to start a fight he thinks will be easy to win. I am not an economist but if that's the case, given the amount of trading between the two countries, this seems like a real miscalculation on Trump's part.”
But the Trump camp believes the incoming president is in a much stronger position than Mr Trudeau, as he pushes for concessions on immigration and trade, even though the bigger problem is on the US southern border.
In short, while Mr Trump can look forward to four years of power, Mr Trudeau’s grip is weakening by the day. The one-time golden boy of Canadian politics is losing his lustre. Members of his own Liberal Party are urging him to stand down after a series of disastrous election results.
Until now, he has managed to fend off no-confidence votes, but with Canada’s left-of-centre New Democratic Party calling on him to quit, an election in the next few months appears inevitable.
With the conservatives well ahead in the polls, a change of administration seems inevitable. But that is no guarantee that things will get easier for Canada.
