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The 2016 election was Hillary Clinton’s to lose, and she duly lost it. Kamala Harris is determined not to make the same mistakes.
From the moment reporters were kept behind a moving rope line in Gorham, New Hampshire, early in the Clinton campaign, it was hard to avoid the impression that the former secretary of state – and the Democratic hierarchy – were treating the election as a coronation.
Painful lessons were learnt when Democrats’ worst fears came to pass in November as Ms Clinton became the party’s first candidate to lose the "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin since the 1980s.
In Michigan – a pivotal Midwest state in what is known as the Rust Belt, where local economies were previously dominated by manufacturing – Ms Clinton managed to alienate the sizeable Arab-American and Muslim-American community, whose votes were vital in a race that was expected to go to the wire.
During the third presidential debate, she described the community as America’s “eyes and ears” in the war against terror.
It was a crass mistake.
“She implicitly assumed this community would have knowledge of terrorism,” Nazita Lajevardi, associate professor of political science at Michigan State University, told The National.
“She characterised them with tropes of terrorism and violence. Harris is pursuing a different strategy; she is walking a very fine line.”
Ms Lajevardi said Ms Harris is indicating “implicitly, and at times explicitly, that she understands the policies that the Arab-American and Muslim-American communities will be passionate about”.
“You can see that in her refusal to oversee [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s address to Congress,” she said.
In her own debate against Donald Trump this week, Ms Harris addressed the Israel-Gaza war, a major topic in the Arab and Muslim-American communities. While she voiced strong support for Israel's right to self-defence, she also noted Palestinians' right to self-determination.
There are up to 250,000 Arab and Muslim Americans in Michigan, Ms Lajevardi said. “We are talking enough people who could sway a presidential campaign.”
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Democratic nominee for the White House, Vice President Kamala Harris, at a campaign rally in Madison, Wisconsin. Reuters -
A political advertisement for Ms Harris on the Sphere in Las Vegas. AP -
Ms Harris speaks during a rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Getty Images -
Ms Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina. Reuters -
Ms Harris during a campaign event on the Ellipse of the White House in Washington, DC. Bloomberg -
With the Washington Monument in the background, supporters of Ms Harris wave American flags. AP -
Ms Harris and her running mate, Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz, greet supporters in Ann Arbor, Michigan. AFP -
Former US President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign rally in support Ms Harris in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. AFP -
Musical artist Beyonce and Ms Harris embrace on stage during a campaign rally Friday in Houston. AP -
Ms Harris speaks during a televised debate with Republican nominee candidate Donald Trump in Philadelphia. AP -
Ms Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff visit a watch party at Cherry Street Pier after the presidential debate in Philadelphia. AP -
Ms Harris arrives on Air Force Two at Atlantic Aviation Philadelphia. AP -
Ms Harris speaks behind protective glass during a campaign stop in North Hampton, New Hampshire. Reuters -
Ms Harris speaks as Mr Emhoff, Democratic vice presidential nominee Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and his wife Gwen Walz listen at a campaign event in Rochester. AP -
A man wears a T-shirt in support of Ms Harris in Miami, Florida. AP -
Ms Harris holds a campaign rally in Savannah, Georgia. Reuters -
Ms Harris greets people during a campaign stop in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. AFP -
Supporters at a campaign event in North Hampton. Bloomberg -
Ms Harris campaigns with President Joe Biden at the IBEW Local Union in Pittsburgh on Labour Day. AP -
Ms Harris makes a speech at a campaign event at a school in Detroit, Michigan. AP -
Ms Harris during a campaign rally in Savannah. Reuters
The Harris campaign is also focusing heavily on Wisconsin.
“Compared to the [Barack] Obama campaigns that preceded it in 2008 and 2012, Clinton’s campaign invested less in field operations ... in the Midwest battleground states,” Barry Burden, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told The National.
“Clinton also famously did not visit Wisconsin, the first major party presidential candidate to skip the state in half a century. The Biden campaign and now the Harris campaign appear to be heavily involved ... in the 'blue wall' and other battleground states.
“Harris has stepped up the pace and scope of in-person events in these states and the Democratic Party has been investing from early in the campaign year in field operations, things like offices and staff.
“It also seems so far that the Harris campaign is breaking from the Clinton campaign in other ways. It is not stressing the candidate's race or identity. It is also dismissive of Trump, operating proactively rather than responding to each outrageous thing coming from the Republican candidate.”
In her memoirs, Ms Clinton insists that her campaign did not ignore the Rust Belt states. But even she admitted that Wisconsin was the “one place where we were caught by surprise”.
Across the country, there are stark differences in tone between the Clinton and Harris campaigns.
The Vice President has been more aggressive in challenging Mr Trump, said political consultant Mary Noone.
“I was in Detroit when the protesters tried to interrupt her rally but she firmly went into prosecutor mode and addressed them,” Ms Noone said. “Kamala Harris is calling out the Trump campaign and voters like it – we want the Democrats to fight.”
There have also been marked differences between the Trump campaign of 2016 and that of 2024. Since the beginning of July, he has held about a third of the rallies that he did eight years ago.
In part, there is little doubt he has been hampered this year by the blizzard of litigation he is facing, and clearly the assassination attempt has made his team more cautious.
“Don’t forget he was shot at a rally just a few weeks ago – that obviously affects planning quite a bit,” said Richard Porter, a former member of the Republican National Committee. “And before that, the Dems had him stuck in a courtroom on trumped-up charges.”
Jeff Lord, who served in the Reagan White House, believes that the rallies have become more focused compared to the scattergun approach of eight years ago.
“There is serious emphasis on battleground states, especially in Pennsylvania. He feels he has to defeat her here and in Michigan,” Mr Lord said.
Others think there are more reasons for the Trump campaign’s scaled-back operation this election cycle.
“I think he is tired. His campaign spent a long time thinking they were running against Biden, now they are not,” Christopher Galdieri, professor of politics at Saint Anselm College, New Hampshire, told The National.
“The candidate is eight years older than then and there is also the aftermath of the assassination to take into account. He was having fun in 2016; it is clearly not the case now.”
