US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have been on the campaign trail in the past week laying out their agendas. AFP
US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have been on the campaign trail in the past week laying out their agendas. AFP
US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have been on the campaign trail in the past week laying out their agendas. AFP
US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have been on the campaign trail in the past week laying out their agendas. AFP

How would a Harris or Trump administration affect the US economy?


  • English
  • Arabic

US Vice President Kamala Harris is riding a wave of momentum after accepting the Democratic Party's nomination for president last week, but the economy remains the paramount issue in this year's race.

“This election, the outcome is going to be determined by how people vote with their wallets based on inflation,” Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told reporters last week.

According to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Ms Harris's Republican rival Donald Trump holds a nine-point lead when it comes to who Americans trust more to handle the economy and inflation. Meanwhile, a poll released by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business showed the Democrat with a one-point advantage.

The election's outcome will have significant effects on the economy with the Federal Reserve's inflation battle still being fought and the expiration of Mr Trump's tax cuts next year that will be fiercely debated in Congress.

Both candidates have been on the campaign trail in the past week laying out their agendas – Ms Harris with an appearance last Friday in North Carolina, and Mr Trump with a speech in the battleground state of Pennsylvania on Monday.

Inflation and interest rates

The inflation scenario varies, with economists agreeing Mr Trump's protectionism and immigration policies will stall progress in restoring price stability.

Mr Trump has recently proposed a 10 per cent tariff on all US trading partners – as well as a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese goods – as a replacement to income taxes.

A recent paper from the Peterson Institute of International Economics said higher tariffs would harm US exports and diminish economic growth, while also leading to higher inflation. A separate study by the Lombard Odier Group predicts that a Trump presidency and a Republican-controlled Congress would also stall inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to halt cutting interest rates at around 4 per cent.

“In the event of a Trump presidency with a divided Congress, the impact of tariffs would likely dominate, slowing growth while still increasing inflation,” the group wrote in its latest CIO Office Viewpoint.

The current target range for US interest rates is 5.25 to 5.50 per cent.

Bond yields would also probably rise, and so would the US dollar against the euro, the organisation said. The company expected a Harris-led presidency to have greater policy continuity should she succeed Mr Biden, with the Fed cutting rates through mid-2025.

Changes to the Fed's monetary policy will have implications for most central banks in the Gulf Co-operation Council, whose currencies are pegged to the US dollar.

“Any drop in the benchmark interest rates or higher-for-longer scenario will have an impact on interest rate-sensitive sectors in the GCC like banking, real estate, utilities as well as leverage companies,” said Faisal Hasan, chief investment officer at Al Mal Capital in Dubai.

“The investors here are also very international [in their focus] and changes in the monetary policy will impact their investment.”

Tariq Qaqish, chief executive at the Salt Fund Placement advisory firm in Dubai, said GCC countries must prepare for both administrations.

Mr Qaqish anticipates a Trump win would lead to a weaker dollar, thereby increasing liquidity into the region. A Harris win, he said, would lead to a stronger US dollar which would hamper economic growth.

Federal deficit

Regardless of who wins the 2024 election, the US federal deficit is expected to further increase.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that high fiscal deficits and the continuing increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio are not only a risk for the US, but also the global economy.

Ms Harris last week released some elements of her economic agenda, including expanding the child tax credit base from $2,000 to $3,000, expanding the earned income tax credit, advancing a federal ban on price-gouging on groceries and providing a tax credit of up to $25,000 for first-time homebuyers.

US Vice President Kamala Harris announced a plan to halt price-gouging at grocery stores as part of her economic agenda. Bloomberg
US Vice President Kamala Harris announced a plan to halt price-gouging at grocery stores as part of her economic agenda. Bloomberg

These and other plans make up the elements of the Agenda to Lower Costs for American Families, which outlines her intentions for her first 100 days in office.

All told, the plan would increase the US federal deficit by $1.7 trillion over a decade, according to the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). That figure would rise to $2 trillion if the housing policies became permanent.

Mr Trump has thus far not released a detailed economic agenda. The CRFB in July estimated that his plans to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits would increase deficits by $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion through 2035.

The national debt also soared during Mr Trump's term in office.

According to another analysis conducted by the CRFB, Mr Trump added $8.4 trillion to the national debt. Of that, $3.6 trillion was from Covid relief laws.

Donald Trump speaks on the economy during a campaign event in York, Pennsylvania. Bloomberg
Donald Trump speaks on the economy during a campaign event in York, Pennsylvania. Bloomberg

A second Trump term would likely be a continuation of the Make America Great Again agenda that defined his first term, where he wants further tax cuts and enhancing US industries, Mr Qaqish said.

“These policies could stimulate growth but will put more pressure on fiscal deficits,” he said, adding that geopolitical factors must also be considered. Should Mr Trump win and negotiate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, as well as a peace deal between Israel and Palestine, then Mr Qaqish expects a lower level of government spending and national debt.

Corporate taxes in focus

In one major policy shift, Ms Harris's campaign said her administration would lift the US corporate tax rate to 28 per cent from its current rate of 21 per cent. The campaign's proposal is in line with President Joe Biden's most recent budget proposal.

Mr Qaqish said this would have a direct impact on investors, who would establish businesses outside the US to reduce their corporate taxes.

Mr Trump cut the corporate tax rate from 35 per cent to 21 per cent as part of his 2017 tax plan, and pledged to further cut taxes if he was elected president again. Mr Trump's tax plan brought the US's corporate income tax rate down from the fourth-highest in the world to roughly median, according to the Tax Foundation.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in 2018 said raising the current corporate tax rate by one percentage point would raise US revenue by $96 billion from 2019 to 2028.

Mr Trump's tax plan is set to expire at the end of next year, and will be one of the biggest issues facing Congress when the new session begins.

Extending the tax cuts would add $3.3 trillion to the US deficit over the next 10 years, the CBO said.

Winners

Ballon d’Or (Men’s)
Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain / France)

Ballon d’Or Féminin (Women’s)
Aitana Bonmatí (Barcelona / Spain)

Kopa Trophy (Best player under 21 – Men’s)
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain)

Best Young Women’s Player
Vicky López (Barcelona / Spain)

Yashin Trophy (Best Goalkeeper – Men’s)
Gianluigi Donnarumma (Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City / Italy)

Best Women’s Goalkeeper
Hannah Hampton (England / Aston Villa and Chelsea)

Men’s Coach of the Year
Luis Enrique (Paris Saint-Germain)

Women’s Coach of the Year
Sarina Wiegman (England)

Who was Alfred Nobel?

The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.

  • In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
  • Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
  • Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Healthcare spending to double to $2.2 trillion rupees

Launched a 641billion-rupee federal health scheme

Allotted 200 billion rupees for the recapitalisation of state-run banks

Around 1.75 trillion rupees allotted for privatisation and stake sales in state-owned assets

Disposing of non-recycleable masks
    Use your ‘black bag’ bin at home Do not put them in a recycling bin Take them home with you if there is no litter bin
  • No need to bag the mask
WOMAN AND CHILD

Director: Saeed Roustaee

Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi

Rating: 4/5

Timeline

2012-2015

The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East

May 2017

The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts

September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

May 2025

The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan

August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

October 2025

Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange

November 2025

180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

Classification of skills

A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation. 

A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.

The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000. 

A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
  • 2018: Formal work begins
  • November 2021: First 17 volumes launched 
  • November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
  • October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
  • November 2024: All 127 volumes completed

500 People from Gaza enter France

115 Special programme for artists

25   Evacuation of injured and sick

Other must-tries

Tomato and walnut salad

A lesson in simple, seasonal eating. Wedges of tomato, chunks of cucumber, thinly sliced red onion, coriander or parsley leaves, and perhaps some fresh dill are drizzled with a crushed walnut and garlic dressing. Do consider yourself warned: if you eat this salad in Georgia during the summer months, the tomatoes will be so ripe and flavourful that every tomato you eat from that day forth will taste lacklustre in comparison.

Badrijani nigvzit

A delicious vegetarian snack or starter. It consists of thinly sliced, fried then cooled aubergine smothered with a thick and creamy walnut sauce and folded or rolled. Take note, even though it seems like you should be able to pick these morsels up with your hands, they’re not as durable as they look. A knife and fork is the way to go.

Pkhali

This healthy little dish (a nice antidote to the khachapuri) is usually made with steamed then chopped cabbage, spinach, beetroot or green beans, combined with walnuts, garlic and herbs to make a vegetable pâté or paste. The mix is then often formed into rounds, chilled in the fridge and topped with pomegranate seeds before being served.

Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi

From: Dara

To: Team@

Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT

Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East

Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.

Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.

I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.

This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.

It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.

Uber on,

Dara

Semi-final fixtures

Portugal v Chile, 7pm, today

Germany v Mexico, 7pm, tomorrow

The specs: 2018 Audi Q5/SQ5

Price, base: Dh183,900 / Dh249,000
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged in-line four-cylinder /  3.0L, turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic / Eight-speed automatic
Power: 252hp @ 5,000rpm / 354hp @ 5,400rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,600rpm / 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy: combined 7.2L / 100km / 8.3L / 100km

The biog:

Favourite book: The Leader Who Had No Title by Robin Sharma

Pet Peeve: Racism 

Proudest moment: Graduating from Sorbonne 

What puts her off: Dishonesty in all its forms

Happiest period in her life: The beginning of her 30s

Favourite movie: "I have two. The Pursuit of Happiness and Homeless to Harvard"

Role model: Everyone. A child can be my role model 

Slogan: The queen of peace, love and positive energy

Cryopreservation: A timeline
  1. Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
  2. Ovarian tissue surgically removed
  3. Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
  4. Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
  5. Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months

Day 1 results:

Open Men (bonus points in brackets)
New Zealand 125 (1) beat UAE 111 (3)
India 111 (4) beat Singapore 75 (0)
South Africa 66 (2) beat Sri Lanka 57 (2)
Australia 126 (4) beat Malaysia -16 (0)

Open Women
New Zealand 64 (2) beat South Africa 57 (2)
England 69 (3) beat UAE 63 (1)
Australia 124 (4) beat UAE 23 (0)
New Zealand 74 (2) beat England 55 (2)

F1 The Movie

Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem

Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5

Our legal columnist

Name: Yousef Al Bahar

Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994

Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers

Dubai World Cup Carnival card

6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group 1 (PA) US$75,000 (Dirt) 1,900m

7.05pm: Al Rashidiya Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (Turf) 1,800m

7.40pm: Meydan Cup Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,810m

8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,600m

8.50pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m

9.25pm: Al Shindagha Sprint Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m

10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m

The National selections:

6.30pm - Ziyadd; 7.05pm - Barney Roy; 7.40pm - Dee Ex Bee; 8.15pm - Dubai Legacy; 8.50pm - Good Fortune; 9.25pm - Drafted; 10pm - Simsir

Countries recognising Palestine

France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra

 

Updated: August 27, 2024, 6:25 AM