A dangerous moment for America after Trump assassination attempt

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump marks a terrifying new moment for America, stoking fears of further political violence in an increasingly divided country where extreme narratives have drowned out civil discourse.

Images of a bloodied and fist-pumping Trump emerging defiant from the attempt on his life also mark a watershed moment in this year's election campaign, likely to further galvanise support among many voters.

Even before a bullet whizzed past the former president's head at a Pennsylvania rally on Saturday, several other high-profile figures – both Republican and Democrat – have been targeted, and the inflammatory rhetoric during this election campaign is unlikely to abate anytime soon.

“There is no place in America for this kind of violence. It's sick,” President Joe Biden said shortly after Saturday's shooting.

“We have to unite this country. We cannot allow for this to be happening. We cannot be like this. We cannot condone this.”

Mr Biden went on to say that “the idea that there's political violence or violence in America like this, it's just unheard of”.

That assessment, sadly, is untrue.

A long list of American presidents have been shot at, dating back to before the Civil War, and four of them were killed. The most recent assassination of a sitting president was John F Kennedy in Dallas in 1963.

Ronald Reagan survived after being shot in Washington in 1981.

Some blame Democrats for shooting

Following the attack on Trump, prominent figures from both the Republican and Democratic parties condemned the shooting and wished him well.

Alongside the outpouring of support, however, a right-wing narrative soon emerged that the assassination attempt was the fault of the Biden administration's rhetoric about Trump, whom Mr Biden has portrayed as a would-be dictator who wants to end American democracy.

This election season has been overshadowed by foreboding language, with Trump vowing to be a “dictator” on day one if he wins re-election in November, and pledging to take “revenge” on those who he believes have politically persecuted him.

“The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” said JD Vance, a senator from Ohio believed to be on Trump's shortlist to be his vice presidential running mate.

“That rhetoric led directly to President Trump's attempted assassination.”

Republican Congressman Mike Collins of Georgia went further, saying authorities in Pennsylvania should “immediately file charges against Joseph R Biden for inciting an assassination”.

Another shock

Saturday's shooting presents yet another shock in the election season, which in recent weeks has been dominated by Mr Biden's apparently failing cognitive abilities and whether he is fit to run for re-election.

Trump has already emerged as the favourite as he maintains the lead over Mr Biden in crucial swing states, and the contrast to a blood-soaked shooting survivor to an elderly man unable to form coherent sentences at a debate is stark.

Steve Schmidt, a former Republican political strategist who has spoken out against former president Trump, said on Saturday that “the political consequences of this assassination attempt will be immense, and they will benefit Donald Trump”.

Within minutes of the shooting, “Civil War” was one of the most trending terms on X, reflecting the deep concerns many Americans have about worsening political violence.

A 2023 report from the non-partisan research firm PRRI found that nearly a quarter of Americans agree that “patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country” – the most in the about three years the question has been asked since Trump’s term in office.

The report also found that 75 per cent of Americans, from both sides of the political spectrum, agree that American democracy is at risk in the 2024 presidential election.

In 2022, the husband of former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was violently assaulted by a hammer-wielding attacker in the couple's San Francisco home. The assailant David DePape, who yelled “Where is Nancy” during the attack, was sentenced to 30 years in prison.

That same year, police arrested an armed man who had made threats against Brett Kavanaugh near the conservative US Supreme Court justice's home. Police say he was plotting to kill the judge.

And three men in Michigan were found guilty of taking part in a conspiracy to kidnap Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

But for many, the gravest incident of political violence in modern times was the deadly January 6, 2021 riots, when thousands of Trump loyalists stormed the US Capitol in an attempt to stop Mr Biden from becoming president after Trump refused to concede defeat.

Ellie Sennett in Washington contributed to this report.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”