Iran's attack on Israel at the weekend has increased the pressure on Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson to pass a long-stalled foreign aid bill that includes billions in extra funding for the US ally.
A democratic congressional aide told The National that after Saturday's attack, there “has been a substantive push on the House Republican side to Speaker Johnson to get him to put up the security package as it currently is in the Senate”.
Republican divisions have held up a bipartisan $95 billion national security package that includes aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel from being taken up in the House.
The Democratic-controlled Senate passed the legislation earlier this year.
Far-right hardliners in the Republican Party have threatened to remove Mr Johnson from his role as Speaker if he brings the bill to the House floor for a final vote, due to objections over US support for Kyiv and partisan battles over securing the southern border with Mexico.
“I think the people of Ukraine, the people of Taiwan and I think the people of Israel and the innocent civilians in Gaza are a little bit more important than having Speaker Johnson trying to save face,” the aide said.
House Republicans are due to meet for a closed-door conference on Iran on Monday evening.
The conservatives are deliberating over setting a date to bring the full aid package to the floor for a vote as it is, while some have suggested once again trying a new stand-alone package containing only funding for Israel.
Ari Sacher, a senior policy adviser at the US Israel Education Association, a pro-Israel group, said he is confident Saturday's events would push Republicans to get the bill over the line.
“This escapade on Saturday night cost a half a billion dollars … We're going to need the assets and the American support is critical, and America knows that,” Mr Sacher told The National.
He recently organised a trip to Israel for Republican Senator James Lankford and House representatives Randy Weber, Morgan Griffith and Brandon Williams.
“The feeling on the Republican side is … the support for Israel is visceral," Mr Sacher said.
“The question is whether or not it'll be tied to the Ukraine and how much it will be."
But the prospect of a standalone Israel aid package also seems unlikely.
The congressional aide said Senate Democrats, and some Republicans, are “united” in supporting the package as it is.
“I just don't see a scenario where we start segmenting this,” the Democrat said.
Iran's attack on Israel – in pictures
“It just is, first of all, way too challenging and complicated. Second of all, there doesn't need to be an issue. There doesn't have to be any major revisions on our end.”
In a “Dear Colleague” letter published by US outlet Punchbowl News, House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries declared that the “gravely serious events in the Middle East and Eastern Europe underscore the need for Congress immediately”.
“We must take up the bipartisan and comprehensive national security bill passed by the Senate forthwith. This is a Churchill or Chamberlain moment,” Mr Jeffries wrote.
Momentum to pass the full supplemental package comes from leadership in the House Republican caucus, too.
“What happened in Israel last night happens in Ukraine every night,” House foreign affairs committee chairman Michael McCaul told CBS on Sunday.
“We don't have time on our side here, we have to get this done.
"I need to educate my colleagues that [Iran and Russia] are all tied together.”
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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