Middle East buyers eyeing up prime central London properties have been warned they are in danger of missing the bottom of the market as they hold out for a bargain.
The UK’s sluggish economy and London’s tarnished reputation as a safe place to live have convinced some there will be a fire sale of properties but calling the bottom of the market is dividing watchers in the city.
Americans seeking to invest outside the US are snapping up the available luxury properties, a report found. Tom Ford and George Lucas are among high-profile Americans to have bought super-prime properties in London recently.
Value in Vogue, a report by property search and acquisition consultancy Black Brick, examined the themes that defined the property market in 2025 and what to expect this year.
US buyers accounted for 22 per cent of Black Brick sales last year, second only to British buyers. This compares with less than five per cent of buyers in 2014, when the market was at its highest and buyers from around the world “were out in force”.
“Middle Eastern buyers are keeping their powder dry, waiting for the right moment to start buying London or UK property again,” said Camilla Dell, managing partner of Black Brick.
“Nineteen per cent of buyers currently registered with us are from the Middle East. The one thing they all have in common is that they are looking for great deals.
“For investors, adopting a wait-and-see approach is understandable, with most forecasts showing flat growth across prime London this year. However, for buyers looking for their perfect home away from home in London, the advice I always give is that trying to time the exact bottom of the market may risk losing out on your perfect home. The time to buy and get the best deals done is when others are fearful.”
This delaying tactic had a knock-on effect with the kinds of homes now being bought, due to Americans’ love of period properties. Mayfair and Marylebone have become the most popular prime central London locations, taking over from Chelsea and Kensington.
The findings are at odds with a previous report from luxury property agency Beauchamp Estates, which found Gulf buyers were driving sales of homes priced above £15 million ($19.6 million) across central London in the latter half of last year, although these were often apartments in luxury buildings rather than houses on which Black Brick focused.
The report found 84 per cent of Black Brick clients preferred the “original features and charm that comes with a period home”, whereas in 2014 only 56 per cent of its sales were new builds, often preferred by Middle East buyers.
“Mayfair has become much more trendy in the past decade,” said Ms Dell. “It has had a real renaissance, with Mount Street now one of the best in London, and the beautification of North Audley Street and Grosvenor Square. In 2014, it was more of a business district, not somewhere to buy a cool flat.”
She said new builds may have fallen out of favour because people are looking for more value for money in this “weaker market”.
“Not only do you have to pay a premium for a new home, but they also come with very high service charges. The pipeline of off-plan new builds in prime central London has also significantly decreased over the last decade, becoming more of a second-hand market.
£1m threshold
The Black Brick report, using further research by property analyst LonRes, also looked at the cost per square foot of buying in London, and how far £1 million ($1.3 million) would stretch.
It said £1 million was a “very modest starting point in fashionable central London neighbourhoods”, which would “barely stretch to a compact family house even in the leafy suburbs”.
In prime central London, a £1 million budget would be enough for a studio apartment measuring 417 square feet in Mayfair − about the size of a two-car garage – or a little more space to stretch out at square feet in Knightsbridge.
Meanwhile, in Belgravia and Marylebone you at least get a bedroom, while in Notting Hill, Kensington and Chelsea it might be enough for a spacious one-bedroom apartment or have a separate kitchen.
In outer London, Hampstead had the most expensive floorspace, followed by Fulham then Battersea, while Wimbledon had the best value, translating to a three-bedroom terrace or semi-detached property.
Today's hotspots
Based on postcode area, Marylebone in W1U – once dismissed as a “no-man’s land” on the fringes of Soho but now an aspirational neighbourhood – had the greatest price growth last year at 9.6 per cent, with an average sale price of £2.42 million, followed by Mayfair and parts of Piccadilly in W1J at 5.9 per cent growth and an average price of £4.53 million.
Tom Kain, partner at Black Brick, said: “Buyers love Marylebone because it is incredibly central, it has a really good high street and cafe culture, and is relatively close to Regent’s Park.”
The report said that while the heart of London was flourishing, it was more muted elsewhere, with sub-2 per cent price growth for Pimlico, Marble Arch and Paddington still being enough to make the top 10.
Resilience
The report noted the London property scene has had a “torrid” decade due to tax increases, Brexit, the pandemic, global instability and the cost-of-living crisis. In such storms, buyers turn to areas which have a reputation for being able to “bounce back after a shock”, it said.
Marylebone once again comes out top, with a 6.7 per cent increase in value compared with 2016, followed by Mayfair at 5.6 per cent and Hampstead at 4.7 per cent. Bayswater and Maida Vale were the only other areas to see a positive change, with 1.7 per cent growth.
South Kensington (minus 18.4 per cent), Fitzrovia (minus 12.7 per cent) and Chelsea (minus 12.2 per cent) have had a nightmare decade by comparison.
Schools wanted
For anyone starting afresh with all of London an option to locate the family, such as those moving from the shires or returning from a life abroad, it is the suburbs to which they are most likely to be drawn.
The study analysed house price change across 17 of the leafiest suburbs, selected for their mix of high-grade streets, period properties, schools, open space and transport links.
Hampstead in North London had the highest growth at 10.6 per cent to an average £3.8 million, followed by Putney (9.5 per cent, £1.3 million) Muswell Hill (9.4 per cent, £1.5 million) and Chiswick(9.3 per cent, £1.6 million). Key to these areas’ growth was a range of shops and malls, as well as amenities such as cinemas, private members’ clubs and padel courts.
“Schools have a lot to do with Hampstead’s appeal, because it has some of the best private primary and secondary schools in London,” said Ms Dell. “We get a lot of people who want to sell in Highgate and other areas, and move to Hampstead for that reason.”
