Can Starmer lift the gloom hanging over Labour Party?

Latest poll shows Reform challenge has moved within a whisker of majority

Keir Starmer is a leader under a cloud with opponents inside and outside the Labour movement in full cry.

As he arrives in Liverpool for the second party conference since Labour won a 400-plus seat victory in mid-2024, Mr Starmer cuts an unpopular figure, despite Labour's dominant political position.

An eve of conference opinion poll that looked at the fate of every parliamentary seat in a general election found that the right-wing Reform UK party is in pole position to win the next election.

The rise of Reform to the top of the polls would translate to it winning more than 300 seats in the next election. Labour would sit below 150 seats.

YouGov said the rise of multi-party politics would mean the average constituency would be won on just 34 per cent of the vote, down from 40 per cent in 2024 and 55 per cent in 2019.

“Such a defeat for Labour would be an even greater loss of seats than the Conservatives experienced at the last general election, and a sharp turnaround from a majority victory that was expected by some to carry the party through at least two terms in office,” YouGov said.

The troubles the Labour leader faces are expected to be seen on the opening day of the conference on Sunday when supporters of the banned Palestine Action group line up at the conference security fence on Liverpool's dockside. Mass arrests can be expected to mar the start of the annual gathering.

Mr Starmer led the government decision to recognise the state of Palestine as part of a co-ordinated movement by almost a dozen states last week.

The party ranks are likely to applaud that decision but it won't be enough to assuage many who want to go further including an arms sales ban to Israel.

UK, Canada and Australia announce recognition of Palestinian state

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Mr Starmer's party lost seats against the trend in the last election to pro-Gaza independents, who are now joining with ex-Labour MPs − including former leader Jeremy Corbyn − to form a new left-wing alternative to Labour.

If there was a sliver of comfort for Mr Starmer from the YouGov poll it was the prediction that Mr Corbyn's Your Party will not make a breakthrough. Neither, the poll showed, will the growing Green Party under dynamic new leader Zack Polanski. It has likely success in just three seats − down from its current four.

Mr Starmer has seized on the polling to make his case that the next election will be fought on dividing lines. “There’s a battle for the soul of this country, now, as to what sort of country do we want to be,” he told a meeting of progressive leaders on Friday, including Canada's Mark Carney and Australia's Anthony Albanese.

“We must show our politics resolutely opposed to a status quo that doesn’t deliver for working people,” he said. “The worst thing we can do is to defend the status quo, it hasn’t worked for working people.”

Mistrust is not confined to the outsiders flocking to Nigel Farage's Reform banner. The poll said 53 per cent of Labour supporters disapproved of its record in government.

To take the fight to Reform, Mr Starmer is proposing a digital ID scheme as move to ensure migrants cannot work illegally. Pressure over migrant levels rises daily. On Friday it was revealed that an extra 750,000 people were added to the UK population in 2024, the second highest jump on record.

The backlash against digital IDs is expected to be strong. Political analysts and pollsters warn that nearly all segments of the population are against the idea.

Labour is pitching this as a solution to illegal immigration, but “the iron law of polarised debates is that people will always attribute the worst motivations to any policy advanced by people they don't like”, wrote Nick Barron of lobbying firm MHP.

“The narrative will soon flip, and Labour's lapsed supporters will come to see it as another attack on ordinary people. Labour has haemorrhaged support among lower-trust voter groups and this will damage their chances of winning them back.”

Mr Starmer's badging of the idea as BritCard went down badly among Scottish and Welsh electorates, while its legal implications in Northern Ireland could be serious.

Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, at the launch of the party's general election manifesto in Manchester in June 2024. Bloomberg

Challenger

At the conference efforts to unite Labour on a tough stand on migration is set to be overshadowed by attention on Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. He has been forced to cut back his events to just three at Labour conference after publicly toying with a leadership challenge to Mr Starmer.

Leave aside that he is not an MP, Mr Burnham is still likely to garner plenty of attention and his events are expected to be standing room only.

A real race is under way for deputy leader after Mr Starmer lost his deputy Angela Rayner, who was exposed for tax failings. She and a raft of figures have left the senior team, spoiling the launch of Mr Starmer's Phase II of government.

It is the economy that troubles Labour strategists most. Having promised a change of government on a mission for economic growth it has instead faced a debt spiral. The consultancy EY said on Friday that while the UK economy was not stalled, it was stagnant.

“The UK economy continues to tread water, with GDP growth flatlining but avoiding outright contraction,” said Barret Kupelian, PwC UK chief economist on Friday.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces the conference as a diminished figure and came under further pressure after Mr Burnham took as his rallying cry the state of the economy, saying Labour policies should not be in hock to the bond markets.