A former British national security adviser has said Tony Blair's peace plan for Gaza must secure the support of Arab nations to have any chance of success.
Peter Ricketts said the post-conflict blueprint was one that could forestall the most extreme Israeli efforts to expel the population of the Strip following a war that has killed more than 65,000 people in Gaza.
“We will only be able to get Arab countries engaged in the massive cost and the risks of reconstructing Gaza, providing security in Gaza, if there is a prospect of a Palestinian state at the end of the process,” the former diplomat told BBC radio.
“I think they're good proposals. I don't think they're all that different to the ideas that the Arab countries and the Europeans have been working up.”
A reported leak of the plans said the centrepiece of Mr Blair's ideas was the establishment of a Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA) that would run the Strip for a time limited period.
The concept was presented to US President Donald Trump by Mr Blair during a White House meeting in July. British officials have also promoted the principles of the plan and are ready to circulate the idea as a draft agreement for Gaza to next week's UN General Assembly.
Lord Ricketts said the Arab Peace Initiative was a foundational document for the architects of the Blair deal. “There was a so-called Arab peace plan on these lines,” he said. “Critically, it is Gaza for Gazans. So it avoids any suggestion of forced expulsion of Palestinians, which is very much part of the plans of certain Israelis, including the far-right ministers [Itamar] Ben-Gvir and [Bezalel] Smotrich.”
Monday's summit on promoting a two-state solution has been condemned by the US but co-sponsors Saudi Arabia and France want it seen as an agreement for Gaza. A collective agreement on how to rebuild Gaza and pave the way for a Palestinian state would be seen as a triumph for the planners.
Mr Blair, who was Britain’s Prime Minister from 1997 to 2007, was present at a White House meeting with Mr Trump when the reaction to the president's plans for postwar Gaza were discussed.
The hope is that the US leader's comments on redeveloping Gaza with Riviera-style resorts can be refocused on the needs of its people. “Conversations with the Americans are ongoing with the involvement of Tony Blair and ultimately if he is a bridge between the American ‘Riviera’ plan and a broader solution which is acceptable to all parties, then so be it,” a Whitehall source familiar with the talks said.
Mr Blair spent some time as Middle East envoy attempting to create the economic conditions for a two-state solution.
Steve Witkoff, US Middle East envoy, has stated that Washington is putting together a “very comprehensive” plan on “the next day” after the war ends.
Shuttle diplomacy
Expectations for what's next are an effort to achieve something “more than just recognition of Palestine” at the UN on September 22. One official said the day “can’t be a rehash of what countries did in July”.
“Our distinct hope is that it will be much more than that because if it is just recognition, then we've not achieved very much in the interim,” the source added.
Earlier in September, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said it was “working in lockstep with our Gulf partners to establish a framework for peace”.
“Ending the war in Gaza means not just reaching a ceasefire but turning it into a durable peace,” the source added.
Alongside getting a ceasefire, more aid and release of hostages, Britain is “working intensely on the conditions for a lasting peace and the foundations of a two-state solution”.
International diplomats have engaged for months with regional powers in the format of an “Arab Quint” (Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE) to seek a common understanding of postwar governance, recovery and eventual reconstruction.
All sides in the Quint process have said Hamas could play no future part in a Palestinian state.
“The question is how do we build on that consensus?” the source added.
One facet of the plan that has given regional partners some comfort is a series of offices within the GITA, designed to preserve the rights of Palestinians in Gaza, including a Property Rights Preservation Unit.
This is designed to counteract hardliners in Israel who seek the “voluntary” departure of Gazans on a non-return basis.
Polling by Zogby Research Services for Mr Blair's think tank in May found that less than four per cent of Palestinians in Gaza said they wanted Hamas to govern the Strip.
The poll found significant opposition to Hamas among Palestinians in Gaza, with 92 per cent holding Hamas responsible for the current situation, close to Israel's 93 per cent.
Gazans’ preferred choice of government is the Palestinian Authority under President Mahmoud Abbas, at 35 per cent. The second most popular option is a transitional international coalition working with a local Gaza administration at 27 per cent.
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
TUESDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY
Centre Court
Starting at 2pm:
Elina Svitolina (UKR) [3] v Jennifer Brady (USA)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) v Belinda Bencic (SUI [4]
Not before 7pm:
Sofia Kenin (USA) [5] v Elena Rybakina (KAZ)
Maria Sakkari (GRE) v Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) [7]
Court One
Starting at midday:
Karolina Muchova (CZE) v Katerina Siniakova (CZE)
Kristina Mladenovic (FRA) v Aliaksandra Sasnovich (BLR)
Veronika Kudermetova (RUS) v Dayana Yastermska (UKR)
Petra Martic (CRO) [8] v Su-Wei Hsieh (TPE)
Sorana Cirstea (ROU) v Anett Kontaveit (EST)
What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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