The bright yellow track of the missile ocean launch streaks upwards from Earth on a near-vertical trajectory towards space.
Instantly a warning appears across the bank of computer screens in the crucible-like operations room of UK Space Command. “Missile in flight,” says one of the operators at UK Space Command. There is a question that they need to very rapidly answer: is this going to threaten a major UK or allied satellite?
It becomes rapidly apparent that this is not a rocket fired in anger from the Ukraine conflict or by Iran. Instead its line of travel is heading unflinchingly towards the heavens, an anti-satellite (Asat) weapon released to hunt its prey more than hundreds of kilometres above Earth.
The stakes are high. In geostationary orbit 35,000km above Earth is one of the four Skynet 5 satellites, a $5.4 billion communications system that serves all of Britain’s highly sensitive government communications, from special forces, spies in the field to the prime minister giving commands to nuclear submarines. If it is destroyed it will create a major vulnerability in UK defences.
The Asat’s yellow streak surges upwards gathering speed but now giving a strong indication of what its target might be, as within 10 minutes it has breached Earth’s atmosphere. The computer readout indicates about 20 satellites in the missile’s path, giving their nationalities as Russian, Chinese, American, Australian and British.
As the weapon soars upwards, the number of satellites on an elliptic course narrow down to just five: two Russian, two Chinese and the UK’s Skynet 5. The staff at Space Command have about 15 minutes to notify the operators to begin evasive manoeuvres and carry out defensive actions.
“The first shot in the next war going to be in space,” says one of the officers, as the scenario played out at the 24/7 operations centres comes to an end, after The National had been put in the hot seat to make the decisions on whether or not the Asat was a threat. But we were not given the options on defensive measures that, beyond rapid manoeuvring, could be taken – they remain classified.
Space wars
The last decade has made it became apparent that space will be another dimension in future war and the military personnel at the centre have been deployed to the furthest frontier the armed forces patrol. When Britain’s military realised it had to have much better “situational awareness”, it set up Space Command in 2021.
It has since grown to a force of more than 600 personnel, three quarters from the RAF, based at former Bomber Command headquarters near High Wycombe, housed in a series of unremarkable 1930s redbrick buildings that had been designed to resemble a village to put off German bombers in the Second World War.
As in the Second World War, behind these walls a hub of specialists are assembled to observe the sky far above for any threats to Britain or its allies. To date there has never been an aggressive Asat launch, although Russia, the US, China and India have all shot down their own satellites to demonstrate their capabilities.
That threat is evident in the low-key offices of Space Command, where personnel know that one consequence of a satellite being destroyed is that the timing signal for financial transactions would result in a loss of £1 billion a day, and that 18 per cent of the UK’s economy dependent on space.
Protect and Defend
In what was the first time it had opened its doors to the press, the UK Space Operations Centre demonstrates a template for those countries operating in space – more than 80 currently – on how they can, as Space Command's logo urges, to “protect and defend” the 811 UK vehicles in orbit.
“From a national security point of view, space is a contested, congested and competitive domain and we need to make sure as our adversaries advance their capabilities that we’re able to deal with what that throws up,” said Maria Eagle, the Minister for Defence Procurement, as she officially opened the operations centre.
With the global space economy projected to grow to $1.8 trillion by 2035, the dimension is about to get a lot more congested and competitive.
Asteroid alert
The British government is putting cash alongside its words with £13 million of funding for a constellation of new telescopes that will be arrayed across most of Britain’s 14 independent overseas territories.
They will be on hand to enhance the constant looking-towards-the-heavens operation of the space officers on duty who spotted the 876 “uncontrolled re-entries” of last year, or the nearly 30,000 collision risks to UK satellites, of which 20 resulted in an official alert.
It is not only foreign powers but space itself that throws up many hazards, with 3,206 “close approach asteroids” reported and one actual “asteroid alert” that ultimately came to nothing.
The centre also monitors for space weather alerts, including the coronal mass ejections from the Sun which could wipe out power grids and satellites, particularly during a “solar maximum” period, which Earth is currently experiencing.
Given the 12,000 or so satellites currently orbiting Earth, space command is one of many now monitoring the skies to avoid a collision that could lead to a cascade of crashes causing the Kessler Effect, which could take out all orbiters, with catastrophic consequences.
Satellite grabbers
Ultimately it appears that the nations racing to colonise space will present the biggest dangers, and not just from their weapons. Space junk caused by the debris of obliterated satellites still presents hazards, including that from 2007, when China shot down one of its own older weather satellites, and 2021, when Russia conducted a similar exercise.
But nations are also developing elaborate space weapons that could pose dangers to Earth and in the cosmos, with a “satellite grabber” device being among the most feared.
“The National Space Operations Centre does vital work in monitoring and protecting our interests,” Ms Eagle told The National. “It’s a recognition of the fact that our adversaries are active there, and we need to know what’s going on.”
