Dubai’s residential market remained resilient in the first half of 2025, although off-plan sales transactions reflected a decline after an industry boom at the end of last year, a report says.
The slowdown was largely influenced by factors such as seasonality and a slower rate of new project launches, according to Cavendish Maxwell’s latest report.
Despite the dip, off-plan properties continue to dominate Dubai’s residential sales, said Usman Adrees, head of primary at Engel & Volkers Middle East. “With off-plan making up such a large part of the current market – accounting for 60 per cent of sales in July, for example – any significant delays would have a noticeable impact on the market,” he told The National.
“However, we do not anticipate major delays at present,” he added. “If delays do occur, they are more likely to be among newer or boutique developers still building their operational capacity.”
Dubai-based property agent Jonathan Coates said delays are common, but have “modestly improved”. “However, complexity and scale in 2025 introduce fresh uncertainty,” he told The National.
Matthew Green, head of research at CBRE MENA, said that while there has clearly been a slowdown in the pace of activity across certain projects, "the quantum of forecasted deliveries for the overall market over the next five years remains high".
Off-plan property dominates
Off-plan activity recorded a slight decline in H1 compared to the second half of 2024, but it still accounted for 70.2 per cent of total residential transactions, according to the Cavendish Maxwell report.
Momentum rebounded, however, in the second quarter, when both off-plan and ready segments posted record-breaking transaction volumes.
“Given the robust performance of the off-plan segment so far this year, developers are expected to capitalise on momentum,” it stated. “If the pace of new launches accelerates in the second half, overall transaction activity could surpass previous records.”
Apartments accounted for the majority of off-plan sales transactions at 76.7 per cent in the first half of 2025, but there was also an increase in townhouse and villa transactions, particularly among bigger units with four to six bedrooms.
This was driven by demand from end users and families looking for larger living spaces, plus investors capitalising on the growing appeal of master-planned communities, as well as affordable price points and flexible payment plans that make these properties more accessible.
The market seems to be entering a new phase, said Mr Green, as 40,000 new units are expected this year, with 60,000 to follow in 2026. "Annual completions will then potentially rise even higher during the period 2027 to 2029, although materialisation rates may yet impact this forecast," he said.
"With a larger pipeline of deliveries than ever seen before, particularly for off-plan, this is now leading to some moderation of growth, and at some point, declines may also follow, as is normal in any property cycle. However, crucially, Dubai has built an ecosystem and a brand which investors want to be part of, whether that is individual buyers or global institutional capital."
What can cause off-plan property delays?
With such an active real estate market, delays are to be expected, said Mr Green. "Particularly given there is a shortage of quality contractors available to actually deliver projects, something that has been accentuated by the continuing construction boom in the region, which has resulted in a resource and brain drain in recent times."
Experts have speculated on a correction in the UAE’s booming property market as new supply launches, potentially outweighing demand, but reputable developers have every incentive to deliver on time, “both to protect their brand reputation and to trigger milestone payments from buyers”, said Mr Adrees.
Leading developers, such as Emaar, typically use payment plan structures, where 80-90 per cent of the price is paid during construction, ensuring cash flow, significantly reducing the risk of delays.
“Developers offering more flexible or post-handover payment plans may face a greater risk of delays, especially if they have been launching projects at a fast pace to meet high demand,” he cautioned.
When delays do happen, these are linked to more practical factors such as supply chain bottlenecks, permitting processes or resource allocation, Mr Adrees explained, “rather than deliberate attempts to manage pricing”.
“In today’s fast-growing market, the rapid entry of new developers, some with limited track records, can also contribute, as these developers may face steeper learning curves in managing large-scale construction,” said Mr Adrees. “Flexible or post-handover payment plans can add further pressure, as cash flow is spread over a longer period.”
Economic downturns have also historically led to construction delays, but we are currently not seeing indications of this in Dubai, he added.
Mr Coates agreed it’s in the industry’s best interest for projects to deliver on time. “Off-plan delivery delays impact the market by reducing buyer confidence, increasing holding costs and tightening supply,” he said. In turn, this can push demand towards ready properties, slowing down resale activity and leading to stricter regulations, he added.
“Over time, it benefits trusted developers but challenges overall market stability.”
Consider carefully before you buy
For anyone looking to invest in off-plan properties in Dubai now, Mr Coates advised being selective in what you purchase. “Four or five years ago, any off-plan launch was seen as a strong investment … But now, because there are so many launches and there are so many properties under construction, and due to handover, there’s far more supply than there is demand,” he said.
Stick with established communities, such as Dubai Hills Estate, Arabian Ranches or Business Bay, for example, and projects from trusted developers, he said. “You know the build quality is going to be good and there are not going to be delays. There’s always going to be a demand for those types of properties on the rental market.”
That’s not to say don’t invest in smaller developers, he added. “But just be careful. Essentially, what may seem like a brilliant idea in the long run, probably isn’t.”
As for property type, he said, budget permitting, investing in off-plan townhouses and stand-alone villas right now is a smart decision since far fewer are due to be handed over than apartments. “There’s always going to be less of them for sale at one given time. The less of what there is available, the more there is of a demand – and you’re going to be able to resell that property for higher prices.”
