Homeowners and potential buyers in Dubai are responding with cautious optimism to a report that residential prices could fall by as much as 15 per cent this year.
Last month, a report was released by New York-based ratings agency Fitch Ratings, predicting the city’s real estate market would enter a “moderate correction” in the second half of 2025 as a record number of projects launch.
But, on the ground, while some prospective buyers are pausing to reassess, homeowners are showing little concern, despite the potential market decline.
"Even if it goes down by 15 per cent, I'm still going to make money, because I bought below market price and I did renovations," said Laurie Fersing, a property investor from France, who also owns her own facilities management company in Dubai.
"It's like the stock market," she added. "Don't sell when it goes down. Keep it, rent it and after maybe five or six years, 10 even, it's going to increase again, because everything in life [eventually] increases."
The long game
Sam Conn, from the UK, and his wife factored any potential price correction into their decision to buy their first Dubai home earlier this year. The couple moved to the UAE in April 2024 and spent a year renting before buying a property in Canal Front Residences in January. Handover took place in April.
“We were aware of the oversupply risks and the talk of a potential correction, however the forecasts and commentary we researched before buying suggested that this wouldn’t materialise until 2027,” said Mr Conn, who recently launched his own management consultancy business here.
“While the timing of the start of the correction has moved forward to the second half of this year, it doesn’t change our view or decision as we have confidence in the location where we have purchased… The reality is that rent prices were becoming unsustainable, and buying made more sense for us both financially and from a lifestyle perspective.
“Even if there’s a dip over the next few years, we’re backing the bigger picture: the continued growth of this region, the migration of talent and wealth, and Dubai’s ability to attract long-term investment. We see our purchase as a long-term play in a city that has an exciting future.”
Filipino Dubai resident Lyn Helbling is also playing the long game. She and her husband bought a property for Dh4.9 million in Jumeirah Park last year and it's already grown in value to Dh8.7 million, according to the latest valuations.
"We were thinking to sell our property as the price went up by quite a lot, but have decided to keep it, install a pool and still enjoy having our own home," she told The National.
"When our daughter leaves for university, we would probably consider selling and downsizing, but not if the price isn’t right. We’re not in a rush and intend to live in Dubai long term and have no foreseeable plans to move."
Buyers weigh up timing and location
Prospective buyers, meanwhile, like communications professional Francesca Hedley, from the UK, are adopting a wait-and-see approach. She and her partner have spent the last month looking for their first property, but are now hesitant to buy this summer.
“We want to wait and watch,” she told The National. “We are mindful that prices will only decrease where there is oversupply, so if we continue to look in Downtown, for example, we are conscious the prices there may be unaffected – and only increase.
"Whereas if we broaden our search, we could wait for a bargain.”
With a budget of Dh2.2 million, the couple has been exclusively looking in Downtown Dubai and Business Bay. “Prices don’t appear to be shifting … [but] it’s very hard to find something on that budget that doesn’t need lots of work.”
Price growth slowing, not collapsing
Professionals remain confident in the market’s potential, citing Dubai’s record population growth, continuing housing demand and maturing real estate sector as indicators that any correction will likely be moderate.
“While Fitch’s projection of a potential price correction makes headlines, the reality on the ground tells a different story,” said Christopher Cina, sales director at agency and brokerage Betterhomes. “Dubai’s population is growing at its fastest pace – we saw nearly 90,000 new residents arrive in Q1 alone, which is over 1,000 people a day. That level of sustained population growth is a real driver of housing demand, especially in liveable, well-connected communities.”
Data from CBRE Middle East supports that view. Matthew Green, the commercial real estate company’s head of research, said price growth has moderated slightly from highs of more than 20 per cent per annum during 2023 and 2024, but values continue to grow, increasing by around 17 per cent in Q1 2025 against the same period last year. This reflects the continued demand for Dubai’s housing products, he said.
“While this price growth is expected to slow further in the coming quarters and years, overall transaction volumes and the value of these sales continue to grow robustly,” said Mr Green, adding that April was a record month for already-built residential transaction value.
Meanwhile, between 2025 and 2026, around 110,000 new units are expected to be completed, which Mr Green said could help ease some of the cost-of-living pressures caused by rising rents.
Population boom, but cautious optimism
Despite the flood of new units, Mr Cina said concerns about a sudden imbalance are overstated. “Yes, supply is coming, but handovers in Dubai do not always arrive on time, delays are common and the volume expected over the next two years will be staggered, not sudden. That helps prevent a sharp shift in balance between supply and demand.”
Buyers are also increasingly calculating long-term benefits, he noted. “Demand isn’t just holding up – it’s strengthening. Rents are at all-time highs in many areas, and for many residents, the cost of a mortgage today is still more attractive long term than continuing to rent."
A maturing market
Siraj Ahmed, director and head of strategy and consulting at Cavendish Maxwell, said he expects strong supply to continue – though not necessarily at the forecasted levels.
“Around 73,200 new residential units are expected to enter the market this year, with another 95,700 in 2026, but, as we have seen in the past, actual completion rates may be lower, with the delivery of some units pushed to a later date,” he said.
The property consultancy’s latest insight on Dubai’s residential real estate market also show that while sales and rental prices grew in Q1 2025, the pace of quarter-on-quarter increases was relatively modest compared to quarterly growth over the last two years.
“This is largely due to a surge in residential supply,” he added. “If this delivery pace continues, the market could experience another stable quarter, potentially signalling a transition towards a more balanced and mature phase.”
For prospective homeowners and investors, Mr Ahmed said it’s more important for them to understand why they’re buying, rather than timing the market perfectly. “Real estate prices and rental yields are influenced by supply and demand dynamics and the pace at which new stock enters the market," he said. "The question of when to buy property is, in many ways, philosophical.”
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 374hp at 5,500-6,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm from 1,900-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.5L/100km
Price: from Dh285,000
On sale: from January 2022
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
UAE cricketers abroad
Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
SM Town Live is on Friday, April 6 at Autism Rocks Arena, Dubai. Tickets are Dh375 at www.platinumlist.net
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
The five pillars of Islam
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Essentials
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Geneva from Dh2,845 return, including taxes. The flight takes 6 hours.
The package
Clinique La Prairie offers a variety of programmes. A six-night Master Detox costs from 14,900 Swiss francs (Dh57,655), including all food, accommodation and a set schedule of medical consultations and spa treatments.
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Afghanistan fixtures
- v Australia, today
- v Sri Lanka, Tuesday
- v New Zealand, Saturday,
- v South Africa, June 15
- v England, June 18
- v India, June 22
- v Bangladesh, June 24
- v Pakistan, June 29
- v West Indies, July 4
Key 2013/14 UAE Motorsport dates
October 4: Round One of Rotax Max Challenge, Al Ain (karting)
October 1: 1 Round One of the inaugural UAE Desert Championship (rally)
November 1-3: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Formula One)
November 28-30: Dubai International Rally
January 9-11: 24Hrs of Dubai (Touring Cars / Endurance)
March 21: Round 11 of Rotax Max Challenge, Muscat, Oman (karting)
April 4-10: Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge (Endurance)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Gertrude Bell's life in focus
A feature film
At one point, two feature films were in the works, but only German director Werner Herzog’s project starring Nicole Kidman would be made. While there were high hopes he would do a worthy job of directing the biopic, when Queen of the Desert arrived in 2015 it was a disappointment. Critics panned the film, in which Herzog largely glossed over Bell’s political work in favour of her ill-fated romances.
A documentary
A project that did do justice to Bell arrived the next year: Sabine Krayenbuhl and Zeva Oelbaum’s Letters from Baghdad: The Extraordinary Life and Times of Gertrude Bell. Drawing on more than 1,000 pieces of archival footage, 1,700 documents and 1,600 letters, the filmmakers painstakingly pieced together a compelling narrative that managed to convey both the depth of Bell’s experience and her tortured love life.
Books, letters and archives
Two biographies have been written about Bell, and both are worth reading: Georgina Howell’s 2006 book Queen of the Desert and Janet Wallach’s 1996 effort Desert Queen. Bell published several books documenting her travels and there are also several volumes of her letters, although they are hard to find in print. Original documents are housed at the Gertrude Bell Archive at the University of Newcastle, which has an online catalogue.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Meydan race card
6.30pm: Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh125,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,200m
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh170,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm: Rated Conditions (TB) Dh240,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh175,000 (D)1,200m
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
A German university was a good fit for the family budget
Annual fees for the Technical University of Munich - £600
Shared rental accommodation per month depending on the location ranges between £200-600
The family had budgeted for food, books, travel, living expenses - £20,000 annually
Overall costs in Germany are lower than the family estimated
As proof that the student has the ability to take care of expenses, international students must open a blocked account with about £8,640
Students are permitted to withdraw £720 per month
RACECARD
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Lowest Test scores
26 - New Zealand v England at Auckland, March 1955
30 - South Africa v England at Port Elizabeth, Feb 1896
30 - South Africa v England at Birmingham, June 1924
35 - South Africa v England at Cape Town, April 1899
36 - South Africa v Australia at Melbourne, Feb. 1932
36 - Australia v England at Birmingham, May 1902
36 - India v Australia at Adelaide, Dec. 2020
38 - Ireland v England at Lord's, July 2019
42 - New Zealand v Australia in Wellington, March 1946
42 - Australia v England in Sydney, Feb. 1888
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
Moving%20Out%202
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SMG%20Studio%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Team17%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20One%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Under-21 European Championship Final
Germany 1 Spain 0
Weiser (40')
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20DarDoc%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Samer%20Masri%2C%20Keswin%20Suresh%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%24800%2C000%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Flat6Labs%2C%20angel%20investors%20%2B%20Incubated%20by%20Hub71%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi's%20Department%20of%20Health%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%2010%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20WallyGPT%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2014%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESaeid%20and%20Sami%20Hejazi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%247.1%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%20round%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Bob%20Marley%3A%20One%20Love
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A0Reinaldo%20Marcus%20Green%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EKingsley%20Ben-Adir%2C%20Lashana%20Lynch%2C%20James%20Norton%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A02%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
Winners
Ballon d’Or (Men’s)
Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain / France)
Ballon d’Or Féminin (Women’s)
Aitana Bonmatí (Barcelona / Spain)
Kopa Trophy (Best player under 21 – Men’s)
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain)
Best Young Women’s Player
Vicky López (Barcelona / Spain)
Yashin Trophy (Best Goalkeeper – Men’s)
Gianluigi Donnarumma (Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City / Italy)
Best Women’s Goalkeeper
Hannah Hampton (England / Aston Villa and Chelsea)
Men’s Coach of the Year
Luis Enrique (Paris Saint-Germain)
Women’s Coach of the Year
Sarina Wiegman (England)
Favourite book: ‘The Art of Learning’ by Josh Waitzkin
Favourite film: Marvel movies
Favourite parkour spot in Dubai: Residence towers in Jumeirah Beach Residence
Mercedes-AMG GT 63 S E Performance: the specs
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8 plus rear-mounted electric motor
Power: 843hp at N/A rpm
Torque: 1470Nm N/A rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.6L/100km
On sale: October to December
Price: From Dh875,000 (estimate)