UAE primed for desert expansion and 15-minute cities to keep pace with population boom

It is time to offer 'new urbanism' as construction sector looks to adapt in cities including Dubai, experts say

Inclusive, self-sustainable communities such as Emaar South will become more common as developers move outwards from main cities. Photo: Emaar Properties

New residential communities are primed to rise out of the UAE's sprawling desert as developers harness the nation's natural resources to keep pace with a continued population boom and surging demand for housing and infrastructure.

An evolving real estate landscape will also champion the 15-minute city model to put amenities on the doorstep and bolster the off-plan property market to satisfy a growing appetite from people all over the world to lay down roots in the Emirates, experts said.

The population of Dubai is expected to almost double by 2040, with many new residents drawn by its dynamic economy, global connectivity and comfortable lifestyle. In the first three months of 2024, 25,700 people moved to the city, the Dubai Statistics Centre said, while Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah and Sharjah also reported increased migration to the cities.

Such sharp growth presents opportunities and challenges for developers and urban planners, who are being tasked with rethinking the future of city living.

“It is time for reflecting on the future of cities,” said Prof Carlos Moreno, scientific director at IAE Paris Sorbonne University. “It is time for changing our paradigms, including in this part of the world. It is time to offer the new generations a new urbanism.”

He said the proximity model could transform cities in the Middle East by promoting walkable, inclusive communities, easing traffic and enhancing climate resilience. “I dream of the Middle East becoming an exemplary region of 'proxilience', which refers to proximity as resilience,” he added.

Prof Moreno was speaking alongside several experts at the Big 5 Global event for construction and design technology, which concluded last week at Dubai World Trade Centre last week.

Evolving cities

The prevailing sentiment at Big 5 Global was one of optimism. Forward-thinking strategies, innovative construction techniques and a commitment to sustainability were referred to as key drivers for the UAE to thrive amid the demographic surge.

During a panel discussion, titled How Are Changing Population Dynamics Shaping the Way We Live and Work in Urban Environments?, speakers emphasised the importance of integrating residential, commercial and recreational spaces to enhance quality of life.

“It’s not just about fancy buildings, it’s about what these buildings provide to families and communities,” said Sameer Daoud, managing director of KEO International Consultants. “When we’re talking about liveable cities. There’s no common standard that applies to everywhere and every region, even in the same country. Quality of life is what is really driving us forward.”

Lutz Wilgen, head of design management at Abu Dhabi’s Masdar City, spoke about the need to put people at the heart of urban planning. “What is the prime focus or use of a city? It’s people, it’s there to house people and make them feel comfortable and see it as a home in which to create memories,” he said. “Investment is important, and money generation and value creation is part of that, but the fundamental question is, what kind of environment do we want to create for the future generation?”

Expanding into desert

With central areas in Abu Dhabi and Dubai already densely populated, developers are looking elsewhere to accommodate the influx of residents. Jay French, chief executive of property development company Matthews for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, compared the trend to suburban expansion in North America, around Sun Belt cities such as Miami or Dallas. “Dubai has the advantage of abundant land for expansion,” he said.

Developments are already emerging along Al Ain Road, Dubai South and towards the Abu Dhabi border. Mr French believes these areas, once considered the fringes, will soon become vibrant, self-sufficient communities. “You see [these communities] on different levels now, but I believe you will see much more refinement in some of them in future,” he added.

“Different developers from different parts of the world will come in and put their flavour on to the local market, as currently it’s quite uniformed. You’re looking at creating a sense of pride of ownership, promoting family values and community living, and that has a social anchor to it, too."

Jack Sellers, founder of YallaValue, agrees there will be a major shift towards community living. “Dubai is already like a collection of sub-cities,” he said, adding that the trend of buying off-plan is only set to increase as developments expand into the desert. “That's going to have a huge impact on what becomes considered prime real estate.

Jack Sellers, founder of YallaValue, at Big 5 Global in Dubai. Pawan Singh / The National

“There's a bit of a misconception that you've got to buy in a place that's up and coming. That can really, really work sometimes and it can really, really not work sometimes. I'm much more of a believer that there's a reason why it's more expensive to buy in Dubai Marina or Downtown – because those are good places to buy and they will continue to be good places to buy.

“As long as governments keep printing money, everything's going to go up. It's just a question of, did the thing that you buy go up as much as it could have?”

Building smarter for the future

As pressure on the construction sector mounts, Mr French emphasised the need for innovation in construction methods. He is a strong advocate of using steel framing, a method that has not yet found popularity in the UAE. “It’s a great product that lends itself to quality and speed,” he said. He referred to its sustainability benefits and suitability for modular construction, which can “take pressure off trades and existing construction companies and the supply commodity market”.

Despite the overall message of optimism, experts also acknowledged the challenges that come with rapid urban growth. Dr Akram Awad of Boston Consulting Group highlighted the importance of inclusivity in urban planning. “We need to take a responsible approach,” he said. “A city must feel like they belong, that they have a sense of conviction regardless of their background.”

Dr Anas AlMughairy, director general of the Arab Urban Development Institute, also emphasised the importance of infrastructure in ensuring quality of life in new communities. “We are planning and designing enclaves long distances from the cities and assuming infrastructure will follow,” he said.

“The Mayor of Riyadh [Prince Faisal bin Abdulaziz] always says we’re trying to be ahead of the curve and make infrastructure before the development comes, because the pressure of growth is unbelievable. There is this real struggle to balance economic development and growth, and still have places that people enjoy."