Pressure builds on Cop29 climate talks to deliver

Questions over climate finance and the prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected as US president raise the stakes ahead of November's summit in Azerbaijan

Cop29 takes place from November 11 to 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Pawan Singh / The National

It is vital the Cop29 climate talks deliver a strong outcome despite entrenched positions on finance, climate advocates and experts say.

The pressure is on the Cop29 presidency to deliver an agreement that builds on the success of Cop28 in Dubai and lays the groundwork for Cop30 in Brazil next year.

Preparations are complicated because Azerbaijan had less time to organise the November 11 to 22 summit than other hosts due to its delayed selection over geopolitical wrangling. It is also expected to be a smaller gathering than previous years.

Cop29 also starts just days after crucial US elections that could see the return of climate change sceptic, Donald Trump, and comes before a hugely vital Cop in the south American country next year.

Dubai delivered the Global Stocktake – a report card for how the world is doing – where countries made the historic decision to transition away from fossil fuels.

Cop30 is crucial because countries need to come with revised climate plans – known as nationally determined contributions – to keep the 1.5ºC goal alive.

Now Baku needs to deliver on finance - how to pay for this transition and support those most vulnerable - but negotiators remain some distance apart.

“Waiting for another Cop is simply no longer an option,” said WaterAid climate expert, Patience Mukuyu, who said there needs to be a strong outcome on finance from the talks.

“It is the people around the world who have done the least to cause the climate crisis who continue to suffer from its devastating impacts – floods, droughts, cyclones, heatwaves and rising sea levels.”

• 

  Azerbaijan's capital Baku will host the UN Cop29 climate summit in November. All photos: Pawan Singh / The National

• 

  Baku Stadium is the venue for the crucial talks

• 

  Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, during the Shusha Global Media Forum. Mr Aliyev said the country wanted to have a good outcome

• 

  Cop29 signs have started to appear in Baku

• 

  Hikmet Hajiyev, foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijan’s president, said Armenia – which was recently at war with Azerbaijan – was invited to Cop29

• 

  Azerbaijan is boosting renewable energy, such as at this Masdar operated solar farm called Garadagh

• 

  But Baku has a long fossil fuel history, with oil derricks seen here and the stadium in the background

• 

  The spectacular oil rush was driven by entrepreneurs such as two of Sweden’s Nobel brothers. The Nobels installed oil pipelines and built the world’s first oil tanker. Seen here is a statue of Alfred Nobel at the Nobel museum in Baku

• 

  Azerbaijan has a rich cultural history to showcase for those attending Cop29

• 

  Baku's old city sits alongside newer buildings as the country develops using its oil wealth

• 

  Traditional-style construction in Baku

• 

  Stunning architecture in Baku's old city

• 

  Crafts for sale in Baku old city

• 

  Up to 50,000 people are expected in Baku for Cop29

New financial goal

Countries at Cop29 need to agree a new financial goal to replace from 2025 the $100bn pledge a year from developed countries to help developing countries deal with climate change. This is known as the “new collective quantified goal”. But countries remain at loggerheads on how to resolve this with a recent retreat convened by the presidency failing to break the deadlock.

“In short it is an agreement on the level of financial support and investment that rich countries should provide from public and private sources to help developing countries with their transition away from fossil fuels and to make themselves more resilient to those impacts of climate change that cannot now be avoided,” said Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at the London School of Economics, who said Cop29 was a “really important summit” because of this.

“Without this financial support we are unlikely to see the level of action required in the future.”

Moustafa Bayoumi, climate change research fellow at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi, said he expects a broad agreement at Cop29 that makes it easier for the close to 200 parties to find common ground.

"I think that's what they will have to resort to because they are very tough negotiations and there are a lot of uncertainties," he said. "There are a lot of geopolitical tensions.

"Negotiators today still have not reached agreement on the quantity, quality or sources of finance. Some developed countries also want to broaden the donor base to include developing countries."

Ms Mukuyu added the world had changed a lot since 2009 when the old pledge was made.

“Progress on the NCQG at this year’s Cop could change the course of the future for those living on the frontlines of the climate crisis.”

US President Donald Trump in 2017 announced that the US would withdraw from the landmark Paris climate deal. Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

US election casts long shadow

The US election takes place on November 5, just a few days before the summit opens.

Donald Trump has vowed to take the US out of the Paris climate deal for a second time if elected, imperilling global climate action from a global superpower and major greenhouse gas emitter.

Carbon Brief, the respected UK-based climate specialist website, published analysis stating a Trump victory could add 4bn tonnes of US emissions by 2030.

President Joe Biden has championed climate action but much remains to be known about the climate plan of Kamala Harris, US vice president and the Democratic Party's nominee if elected. However, she mentioned climate in her acceptance speech on Thursday and has a record of advocating for the environment.

"It is not going to change the negotiations immediately," said Mr Bayoumi. "But it will potentially cast a shadow on the mood because then people will know whatever we're going to negotiate here might be undone depending on the election results," he explained.

He suggested a Harris victory might bring a more positive mood at the talks with the expectation of continuity from the Biden administration and could be seen as a "sigh of relief" among climate activists.

A woman wades through flood waters at an inundated residential area in Garissa, east-central Kenya. AFP

No one adapts without water

The Cop29 presidency has been ramping up activity over the past few weeks. It has launched a billion-dollar climate fund, unveiled the thematic schedule for the event and announced a raft of other initiatives to drive action at Cop29.

Among them is an effort to bring water front and centre to the debate. Scientists believe hotter temperatures, changes in historical rainfall patterns, and water contamination, are putting pressure on water.

The “Baku Dialogue on Water and Climate” seeks to bring together governments, UN organisations, academia and the private sector to work on how to adapt to these new realities.

“Clean water, sanitation and hygiene are essential for people to adapt, building their resilience to continued climate change,” said Ms Mukuyu. “This must be at the heart of Cop29.”

Baku Stadium, venue for Cop29, with oil derricks also visible. Azerbaijan's history is intertwined with fossil fuels. Pawan Singh / The National

A smaller Cop

Cop28 in Dubai was the largest ever staged with, according to the UNFCCC, about 85,000 participants and more than 150 heads of state.

Cop29, however, is expected to be a smaller affair with organisers expecting up to 50,000 attendees but others put the figure around 40,000.

Mr Bayoumi said the last few Cops had been trying to be more inclusive by bring in businesses and wider society. This boosted numbers and interest, but also put pressure on the talks.

"It's good to be inclusive but it also needs to be very well managed, otherwise the negotiators can get overwhelmed with the number of places they have to be in, the queues, etc. It becomes very taxing," he said.

Clock is ticking

Regional climate weeks that are typically held across the world to drive momentum for Cop were cancelled this year due to a lack of funds.

But The UN General Assembly, along with Climate Week New York City, that both take place in September could be seen as crucial signposts ahead of the November summit.

The climate week in particular is seeing a surge of interest – with 1,350 organisations applying for speaker slots, as opposed to just under 650 last year – but organisers said it wasn’t clear if this was related to a slimmed down Cop29.

“It could be the challenges around Cop29, but it could also be because Climate Week NYC has an increasingly high profile among businesses and governments,” noted Rik Goverde, the event’s director of programme and corporate communications.

“So it is a bit hard to say what the influence of the business-sentiment around Cop is, if any.”

The G20 summit in Brazil also takes place during the closing days of Cop29 so it remains to be seen how the geopolitical landscape will influence the outcomes that are due on November 22.

Two other UN gatherings on biodiversity in Colombia in October and on desertification in Saudi Arabia in December are also getting attention.

“Our message to world leaders is this: there is no time to waste," said Ms Mukuyu.

“Delivering the finance needed to ensure people can adapt to climate change is not aid, it is justice.”

The effects of climate change on the Middle East region – in pictures

• 

  Flooding in the Al Barsha area of Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National

• 

  Vehicles being recovered near Al Maktoum airport in Dubai. Antonie Robertson / The National

• 

  Flooding in the Al Barsha area of Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National

• 

  Flooding along Sheikh Zayed Road in Dubai. Antonie Robertson / The National

• 

  Flooding along Sheikh Zayed Road in Dubai. Antonie Robertson / The National

• 

  Cars move through floodwater in Al Qudra, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National

• 

  Flooding on Dubai's Al Khail Road. Chris Whiteoak / The National

• 

  People abandon their cars on Sheikh Zayed Road due to heavy rain. Antonie Robertson/The National

• 

  Flooding on Al Khail Road. Chris Whiteoak / The National

• 

  Flooding in Oman. Photo: Royal Oman Police

• 

  A damaged car in Derna, Libya. Reuters

• 

  A destroyed vehicle in Derna. AFP

• 

  Abdul Salam Ibrahim Al-Qadi walks on rubble in front of his house, searching for his missing father and brother, in Derna. Reuters

• 

  An aerial view of the destruction in Derna. Reuters

• 

  Flood-affected people taking refuge in a makeshift camp after heavy monsoon rains in Jaffarabad district of Balochistan province. AFP

• 

  Internally displaced flood-affected people shift husk for their animals in a flood-hit area following heavy rains in Dera Allah Yar in Balochistan. AFP

• 

  The aftermath of flooding in Egypt's southern city of Aswan, 920 kilometres south of the capital. AFP

• 

  The Nile River from the top of Famine Stela, or Rock of Starvation, Egypt. Reuters

• 

  Volunteers search for people in need following heavy rainfall in east Mosul, Iraq, in March 2020. Reuters

• 

  People clean up after floods in Duhok, Iraq, on March 19. Reuters