British police said an Iranian UK dual citizen had been arrested in central London on Thursday in connection with a suspected plot to attack the US airbase at RAF Fairford.
“A 27-year-old man, a dual UK-Iranian national, was arrested in the Borough of Westminster, London, on suspicion of preparation of terrorist acts under Section 5 of the Terrorism Act 2006,” a statement said.
Five British men were arrested on suspicion of preparation of a terrorist act and explosives offences after they were spotted by a member of the public near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire in the early hours of Sunday.
Police added that a second man, aged 26, who is a UK national, was questioned under caution on Thursday as part of the London operation. Searches of two properties have also been carried out in the same area.
“The investigation into circumstances surrounding events in Gloucestershire is hugely complex, and our specialist teams are interrogating multiple lines of inquiry,” said Vicki Evans, senior national co-ordinator for Counter Terrorism Policing. “We’re looking at all possible angles – including possible foreign state involvement.”
Diplomatic repercussions since the arrests have spread among the UK's intelligence allies. Israel warned Britain about a pending operation by Iran-sponsored agents, according to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We gave the Brits the intel that there was going to be an attack, an Iranian-sponsored attack,” Mr Netanyahu said.
US President Donald Trump said the suspects had been “under view” by British and American authorities for some time, while Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, said foreign actors were “clearly” involved.
On Wednesday, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham suggested that there were "strong indications" Iran may have been behind last week's incident. The five men arrested near the perimeter of the base have since been released on bail.
Israel's Mossad foreign intelligence service is understood to have significant human intelligence sources inside the Tehran regime. Intelligence experts have told The National that Israel also probably provided British intelligence with some specific signal intercepts that a plot was under way, possibly to attack Fairford.
“Israel would likely have given general intelligence that the Iranians were planning something, and then the UK security services would have dug deeper and got across this plot,” said Megan Sutcliffe, Middle East analyst at Sibylline, an intelligence company. “It was not necessarily handing over information that at this date or this time, this is going to happen.”
Former MI6 officer Matthew Dunn agreed that Israeli intelligence could have been vital, but the depth of their knowledge of the plot was unclear. “What did the Israelis know? Did they know that this was going to be a significant assault of some description, a major threat, or did they not have that information?”
Israel's President Isaac Herzog said Israel had “excellent co-operation on the intelligence level, with high mutual respect".
“No one wants to hurt national security interests," he said. "It should be left alone without judgmental action.”
The experts said co-operation remains high between the intelligence services – particularly between Mossad and the UK's Defence Intelligence agency. “It is the reality of professionals from different jurisdictions getting stuck in and working together, irrespective of potential differences at political level,” said Mr Dunn.
His comments suggest Israel has some level of security co-operation with Britain, but as the incident involved a US airbase used to bomb Iran, Israel would also want to protect its closest ally.
Tehran retort
After Mr Burnham said on Wednesday there were “strong indications” Iran had a role in the incident at Fairford airbase, the Iranian government lodged a protest.
Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned the UK ambassador to Tehran on Thursday to convey Iran's rebuke against “this destructive approach by the British government”. Officials demanded a “correction of its inappropriate approach towards Iran”.
While he said he could not go into details, he said of his suggestion of Iranian involvement that “obviously I wouldn't say it lightly”. “We are on top of it in every possible way imaginable,” the UK Prime Minister added.
It has also been disclosed that one of the five suspects raised the alarm himself, further clouding the motivations behind the incident.
There are now several strands to the plot that counter-terrorism police are investigating, with theories including the men being petrol smugglers, or proxies for Iran seeking to blow up a US airbase.
While the five men from Britain in their 20s arrested on Sunday outside RAF Fairford, which is used by US bombers in the Iran conflict, have all been released on bail, they remain under investigation.
But there are questions about whether Britain and its intelligence community has been undermined by the case, with the potential for political point-scoring by disclosing who shared information at the time of a general election in Israel and political uncertainties in the US.
“They were released on bail, therefore police believe they are not a threat in terms of fleeing or a risk to people in the UK,” said Mr Dunn. “That does beg various questions, the obvious one being: how serious was the action that they undertook?”
