A suspect in the RAF Fairford airbase arrests raised the alarm himself, it has been revealed, further clouding the motives behind the incident.
There are now at least five strands to the incident that counter-terrorism police are investigating, from the suspects being petrol smugglers to alleged Iran proxies seeking to blow up a US airbase.
While the five men from Britain, all in their 20s, arrested on Sunday outside the airbase used by US bombers in the Iran conflict, have been released on bail, they remain under investigation.
Emergency caller
It is now understood one of the suspects called the UK’s 999 emergency service phoneline but no explanation has been given as to why.
Curiously, the call was made at least an hour before another 999 came from a farmer who had spotted the vans and masked men at 1am as she returned home from a party.
Did the first caller realise he had been drawn into a terror plot, was he attempting to panic the authorities, or even to lure police into a potential ambush? It remains unclear why armed police reacted rapidly to the farmer’s call but not, it appears, to the suspect’s.
Dry run
A key line of inquiry will be whether the suspects, who may have been part of a larger gang, were on a reconnaissance mission or 'dry run’ for an attack.
US President Donald Trump said the suspects had been “under view” by British and American authorities for some time. Therefore, it is possible that they were assessing security weaknesses and potential entry points for a planned attack on the 470-hectare site.
Petrol bombers
Were the men foot soldiers on a terrorist or criminal operation? Splinter Irish Republican Army terror groups have used incendiary devices in which detonating petrol causes a loud bang but little damage. However, this practice needs explosives to set off the device and none were apparent at Fairford.
Iran proxies
The men could have been unwitting pawns in an operation by a hostile state, most probably Iran but potentially Russia, which has been attempting sabotage bases across Europe.
Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, claimed foreign actors were “clearly” involved at Fairford and Washington officials have raised the possibility of Iran. British police have disclosed they are investigating the potential of proxies for a foreign state. Tehran has denied any involvement.
Fuel thieves
A more prosaic outcome is that, in a time of soaring fuel prices, this was a gang of fuel thieves looking to make quick profit.
There are reports that the three vans – a number that does not suggest low-profile terrorism reconnaissance – were used to take on-board siphoned fuel. The men might fit the profile of a terrorist team, but whether they were is for detectives to rule in or out.
