In a matter of days, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian went from declaring his "greater access" to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to reporting "very difficult" communication with the injured supreme leader.
The shift reignited questions about who is calling the shots in Tehran, turning the issue into a remarkable dilemma given crucial negotiations with the US, which could lead to permanent peace or all-out war, and which now hang on the speed of decision-making and the word of an elusive leadership.
Despite the regime’s attempts to project an image of power and resilience at home and abroad, recent developments suggest that those running the country of 90 million, hardliners and military figures alike, are far from united behind a single position at one of the most crucial moments in Iran’s history.
"During a session of talks with mediators this week, Iranian negotiators couldn't easily agree among themselves, and it seemed they needed to go back to different entities to get things done and approved," a source said on Friday, painting a picture of confusion.
After staying out of sight during Iran's vast public funeral for his father, the younger Mr Khamenei has failed to quell speculation about his health and whereabouts.
His disappearance and vague comments from Iranian leaders about his decision-making have also baffled the mediators and the other negotiating party, the US, which has been trying to establish whom to speak to.
Mr Pezeshkian tried to reassure that things were running normally in July, telling a group of industrialists about "increased communication and greater access to our beloved leader" who dictates Iran's war policy.
This week, however, he delivered a contradictory message, saying that communication with the supreme leader is "very difficult".
According to Iran International, an outlet opposed to the regime, the President was recently taken to a secret Tehran location and allowed only minutes in a dark car with tinted windows alongside a man presented as Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.
"Mr Pezeshkian could not see the man beside him and later asked whether the voice he had heard had really belonged to the supreme leader," Iran International wrote. The National could not confirm this encounter with other sources.
IranWire, another outlet opposed to the regime, quoted two sources close to Mr Pezeshkian's administration as saying that rumours that Mr Khamenei was in extremely critical condition and could die at any moment were circulating widely at the highest levels of the regime.
Centre of power
Iran's political and military structures are unique, with power traditionally concentrated in the supreme leader, who sits at the top of a multi-layered system of elected institutions, unelected bodies and parallel military forces.
But the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ushered in a new form of collective leadership in the vast country. On the military front, with top generals killed, Iran's forces have also turned to a "mosaic defence" strategy that devolves power to local commanders, solidifying the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps across all ruling levels.
The IRGC was formed to defend the 1979 revolution and has steadily amassed power internally and across the Middle East through militant proxy groups. Under the elder Mr Khamenei, it still mostly had to adhere to his will. His killing, however, created a window for others to sneak into the highest levels of government.
"Unlike in the past - when the Supreme Leader stood above all institutions and held absolute power - the new Iranian political leadership operates within a decentralised, collective framework in which power is distributed among security institutions, with the IRGC as the most influential," wrote the Jamestown Foundation last month.
It added that the weakening of the middle class and the marginalisation of reformists and moderates set the stage for the IRGC’s increasing dominance.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and two other security figures - Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, head of the Supreme National Security Council, and Ahmad Vahidi, commander of the IRGC - effectively run the day-to-day affairs of Iran's government, according to the institute.
For the Geopolitical Intelligence Services think tank, the IRGC is now "the centre of power in Iran".
Pen and paper
Mojtaba Khamenei's absence from view has led to speculation that he is incapacitated or in hiding to avoid his father's fate. As questions over his disappearance grow, the power of a battle-hardened collective of commanders in the IRGC, mostly hardliners and those aligned with them, grows in parallel.
But besides the confusion over whom to speak to, another communication challenge lies in the security element: mediators have had to deliver notes on paper and fly to Tehran, as the regime limits the use of the internet and technology for fear of breaches by Israeli and US intelligence.
This week, reports emerged that the former head of the security council, Ali Larijani, was killed in an Israeli strike after his son received a call from a family member while they were together. The family issued a statement denying the reports, saying no phones were present at the site of the strike.
There were also reports of an Israeli takeover of surveillance cameras in Tehran, which led to a large-scale investigation and a revised approach to monitoring traffic and roads.
"The decision-making process is slower and much more complicated. Does this work long term? We'll know soon, when the moment comes to decide between war and peace. For now, Iran is in the hands of warmongers," the source close to the talks said.
