Unusual movement of US troops and equipment has been observed in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, in recent days, raising questions about whether the US-led anti-ISIS coalition is beginning an early drawdown ahead of its planned exit next month.
It is not yet clear whether the activity constitutes a full withdrawal. However, sources in Baghdad and Erbil say personnel have been relocating defence systems and support equipment from coalition sites in Erbil International Airport over the past week.
The equipment includes air-defence components that have been crucial in intercepting drones and rockets fired at coalition bases from Iran and by armed groups inside Iraq.
A number of British, French and German forces serving in the ISIS coalition have also left Erbil, the sources said.
The activity comes as Washington and Baghdad work to implement a 2024 agreement to formally end the coalition’s military mission in Iraq by September 30 and transition to bilateral security co-operation.
According to two Kurdish officials, one working in security and the other in the Kurdistan Regional Government, convoys carrying interceptors and logistical containers were seen leaving the Erbil air base in the last week of July. The base has served as a main centre for coalition forces advising the Kurdish region Peshmerga security forces and providing intelligence support.
“The movement is not routine,” the government official said. “We are seeing defence systems that were fixed in place now being packed and moved.
“We don’t have confirmation if this is a relocation within Iraq, a return to the US, or part of the coalition closure.”
The regional government official had not received any formal notification about the moves, the official said. “There was no prior co-ordination with us.”
Residents posted pictures of a high-altitude surveillance balloon, known as an aerostat, after it was taken down by US forces from above Erbil.
The unusual activity is taking place against the backdrop of heightened tension between the US and Iran, and amid repeated attacks on US sites in Kurdistan.
Since the outbreak of the Iran war, US assets in Iraq have been attacked by Iran-aligned Iraqi militias or from Iran. While most of the projectiles were intercepted, the attacks have killed and wounded several US service members as well as civilians.
In 2024, Iraq and the US announced a joint agreement to end the international coalition’s military mission in Iraq by September 30 this year. Under the deal, the coalition will conclude operations and any future US presence will be governed by bilateral agreements focused on training, intelligence sharing and arms sales.
Then-prime minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani framed the agreement as a step towards full Iraqi sovereignty, arguing that ISIS no longer holds territory and that Iraqi security forces can manage any remaining threat. The government has also linked the disarmament of Iraqi militias to the September deadline for the coalition's withdrawal.
With the deadline less than two months away, any movement of US military equipment is being watched closely for signs of how the transition will proceed.
An Iraqi official in Baghdad said the withdrawal would be “orderly and co-ordinated” when asked about the latest movements in Erbil. He did not elaborate.
Erbil-based independent political analyst Kadhim Yawar said the recent movement, whether it turns into a full withdrawal or not, carries clear security signals to Baghdad, Kurdistan and Iran.
“Whether this withdrawal is real or not, what they have in common is that there will no longer be a pretext for Iran, or for Iran-affiliated factions, to target the Kurdistan Region,” Mr Yawar told The National.
“It also reduces the cost of protecting the US consulate and the American advisers in Kurdistan,” he added.
He said the move appears designed to put more responsibility on Kurdish forces, known as Peshmerga, to confront pro-Tehran armed factions.
“There is a message here to both Kurdistan and Baghdad: that Washington is trying to push the region’s forces to take on protecting Kurdistan from the factions,” he said. “This could create new internal Iraqi security tensions.”
If the tensions continue, the “internal Iraqi dynamic may force a call for the coalition to return to Iraq, or else things could slip out of the hands of Iraqi politicians if security deteriorates inside Iraq”, he added.
