Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi’s plan to disarm militias outside state control will be “impossible” to carry out given Iran’s tight grip on Baghdad, experts and officials told The National.
His government came under pressure this week after attacks on Saudi Arabia led to joint US and Saudi strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq. The attacks put the spotlight on the militias that have enormous political and military power in the country.
For years, various Iraqi prime ministers have attempted to confront Iran-backed groups. Mr Al Zaidi has vowed to disarm militias by September 30, curb corruption and launch a “comprehensive” reform plan to strengthen state institutions since taking office in May.
Similar pledges have been made by various prime ministers in the past.
“When it comes to disarming these groups, as we've said in the past, it's an impossible task. These groups are deeply embedded inside Iraqi territory,” said Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House in London.
The Iran-backed militias are "supported both by elements of the Iraqi state and by Iran and the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], which is now very strongly embedded in Iraq as part of the wider region that it's fighting, so it becomes even more difficult now".
He added it was "difficult now as ever" for Mr Al Zaidi to tackle those groups.
The US-Saudi strikes came after Mr Al Zaidi completed a visit to Washington, where dozens of economic and political deals were signed.
Baghdad dilemma
The militias have strong financial and military backing from Tehran and in recent years have become formidable forces that can rival the national army in firepower. They are also deeply enmeshed in Iraq's political, economic and social fabric, building business networks and holding seats in parliament and government positions.
They are part of the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of hardline Shiite factions. The alliance, a key pillar of Iran's network of regional proxy forces, has said it carried out dozens of missile and drone attacks on Israel and US forces in Iraq and Syria since the Gaza war began in 2023.
Mr Al Zaidi is likely to seek to avoid direct confrontation after the strikes, said Inna Rudolf, senior research fellow at the Centre for Statecraft and National Security at King's College London.
The Prime Minister is likely to “engage in quiet diplomacy with Washington and Gulf states. Most pressure on militias will be exerted behind closed doors – cajoling militia allies to help restrain rogue factions, trading concessions to avoid escalation", she told The National.
Baghdad has a central dilemma in its efforts to curb armed groups, Ms Rudolf said. The push for disarmament is intended to strengthen state authority, but foreign military action can reinforce claims by the militias that their weapons are necessary to defend Iraq, she added.
At the same time, it highlights the “political limits facing the government in pursuing unilateral demobilisation of armed factions", she said.
Iran has largely extended its influence through the Popular Mobilisation Forces and armed groups in Iraq under its influence. An Iraqi official told The National that Mr Al Zaidi had limited powers to rein in the militias because they have a strong hold over the government and the state.
"It will be impossible for the Prime Minister to curb the militias, especially as the war on Iran continues," the official said. "For years, members backed by Iran have been deeply embedded in government and ministerial roles. Iran has suffered intensely with the war and so it is gripping on to Iraq even more."
Since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, Tehran's influence in Baghdad has increased politically and economically. Iran supported Shiite armed groups that formed part of the insurgency against American forces and has built close ties with successive governments in Baghdad.
