Iraqi armed groups backed by Iran will probably integrate into the state, allowing them to enjoy political and financial gains following the US-Iran deal, experts and officials told The National on Saturday.
Since assuming office last month, Iraq's Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi has been attempting to curb the groups' influence and push for reforms through a reshuffle of economic and security posts. However, Baghdad has very limited sovereignty over some of the powerful militia groups, making Mr Al Zaidi’s initiative unlikely to succeed.
The deal signed by the US and Iran this week to end months of conflict does not mention the Iranian-backed militias in the region, nor does it undermine Tehran’s influence in Iraq.
“The reality is that Iraq doesn't have that type of sovereignty to really be able to curb these militias,” Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at London’s Chatham House, told The National. “There may be a plan or several being discussed about how to move them into different institutions of the security sector.”
Baghdad may attempt reforms such as restructuring the Popular Mobilisation Forces, an umbrella of armed groups – some with close ties to Iran – that operate outside the government’s direct command. However, the government's limited sovereignty makes meaningful curbs on these groups unlikely, Mr Mansour said.
The divide between factions backing integration and those aligned with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the main sticking point given Baghdad's limited leverage over them, Mr Mansour said.
In recent weeks, two very powerful militia announced their willingness to integrate into the state. One group, Sarya Al Salam, is headed by Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr. The other, Asaib Ahl Al Haq, is led by Qais Al Khazali, a long-time Tehran supporter. He has shifted his focus to domestic politics with an eye on a cabinet position.
“Some actors aligned with the Iraqi state are signalling openness to integration, framing this as a moment to prioritise Iraqi national interests over the transnational agenda. However, key militias such as the Kataib Hezbollah oppose this move and remain closely aligned with the IRGC, which treats them as part of its regional conflict posture,” Mr Mansour said.
“The question of whether Baghdad will ultimately confront or accommodate them remains unanswered,” he said.
Mr Al Zaidi will face an even more challenging landscape as he attempts to maintain a partnership with a US intent on breaking Iran’s hold on his country and an Iranian regime ready to protect a prized asset.
US envoy Tom Barrack and Mr Al Zaidi met this week in Baghdad and stressed the need to ensure the “complete disarmament and disbandment” of militia groups in the country as part of a “shared vision” for the new government in Baghdad.
The disarming and reining in of Iran-aligned armed militia groups has been a major point of contention between Washington and Baghdad, even more so since the Iran war broke out on February 28. Groups linked to Tehran were accused of attacks on Gulf states as well as US assets and civilian infrastructure in Iraq, including the Kurdistan region.
Inna Rudolf, a senior research fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence at King's College London, told The National that with reduced regional pressure, pragmatically minded groups were likely to prioritise integration into Iraq’s state structures rather than external “resistance” activities.
Some factions may comply due to benefits like salaries, political protection and influence, but major obstacles remain, including hardline resistance, weak institutions, and entrenched patronage networks, she said.
“Some militia groups will face choices: integrate, adapt to a domestic role, become marginalised, or continue costly asymmetric activity,” she said,
Integration will be gradual and uneven, requiring sustained political will, enforcement, and incentives, she said, adding that if the move fails, it might trigger a backlash that revives resistance narratives.
US-Iran war
In Iraq, Tehran’s influence remains uncertain rather than diminished, with militias excluded from any agreement with the US, an Iraqi official told The National.
“Whether the government will persist in curbing these groups depends on US pressure on Baghdad and its willingness to act,” said the official. He added: “Iran is repositioning rather than retreating; the conflict has strengthened domestic cohesion around the regime.”
The future of armed groups in Iraq may lie in a partial integration into state structures, allowing them to keep political and financial influence even if they lose some autonomy, said the official.
“The question of whether Baghdad will ultimately confront or accommodate them remains unanswered. It remains unclear whether the Iraqi government will meaningfully challenge or defund these groups,” he said.
Militarily, Iran has been weakened and cannot win a large-scale war, but it still poses a serious threat regionally through missiles and drones, he said.
Bente Scheller, head of the Mena division at the Heinrich-Boll-Stiftung Foundation in Berlin, told The National that Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq have historically weakened the state and that any US-Iran arrangement failing to address Tehran’s proxy network risks undermining stability in Iraq and the region.
“Not addressing the questions of Iran's proxies at all might be even more risky,” she said, adding that it may potentially pose greater long-term dangers than previous conflict dynamics.
