Iraq’s parliament is scheduled to convene on Thursday for a confidence vote on the cabinet line-up presented by prime minister-designate Ali Al Zaidi, a session that could end months of political deadlock following national elections in November.
The government formation comes amid pressure from Washington to curb Iran-backed militia groups and from Tehran to keep Iraq in its orbit. It also comes as the regional tensions are growing in the Gulf despite a temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US announced in April.
Mr Al Zaidi faces a 30-day constitutional deadline to form a government, which began on April 27 when President Nizar Amedi formally assigned the task to the 41-year-old businessman.
Parliamentarians expect him to present candidates for at least half of the ministerial portfolios on Thursday, while negotiations continue over the remaining ministries, according to politicians.
As of Wednesday night, Mr Al Zaidi's plan was to submit names to lead at least 15 ministries and keep the remaining eight, a lawmaker linked with Iraq’s largest Shiite parliamentary bloc, the Co-ordination Framework, told The National.
Candidates for the ministries of defence, justice, education, migration and displacement, labour and social affairs, water resources, youth and sport, and agriculture, as well as four deputy prime ministers, have not been decided, he said.
None of the ministerial candidates chosen so far are associated with Iran-backed armed factions due to American pressure, another politician said.
Some of these groups, including Asaib Ahl Al Haq, which holds 29 of the Parliament's 329 seats, "are mulling laying down weapons, but they want it to be framed in a national initiative endorsed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani," the politician said.
Security has been tightened around Baghdad's Green Zone, where the Parliament, government offices and embassies are located, in preparation for the parliamentary session, which is scheduled to start late in the afternoon.
Mr Al Zaidi emerged as a compromise candidate after Washington rejected the Co-ordination Framework's nomination of former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki and threatened to cut US assistance if a pro-Iran figure took office.
US President Donald Trump has publicly backed the nomination of Mr Al Zaidi and spoke to him by phone, inviting him to Washington once the government is formed.
Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani visited Baghdad this week, urging Shiite factions not to concede to pressure to disarm or tilt towards Washington.
The government formation is taking place amid a collapse in Iraq’s oil-dependent economy due to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the main export route for oil and gas producers in the region. The blockade of the waterway, imposed after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, has cut Iraq's crude exports from 3.5 million barrels per day to roughly 300,000, choking the state’s main source of revenue.
The government programme Mr Al Zaidi has submitted to Parliament, titled “A Stable State, A Productive Economy, Balanced Partnerships”, pledges measurable targets on energy, economic reform and national security. But funding those commitments will depend on diplomatic progress to reopen export routes and ensure the stable flow of oil revenue held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The PM-designate also inherits the task of disarming Iran-backed militias that carried out attacks on US forces in the region in support of Tehran, and rebuilding ties with Gulf states affected by those operations. US officials have demanded “concrete action” against these groups, which Washington says carried out 600 attacks since the conflict began.
Mr Al Zaidi’s lack of a political base is viewed as both an asset and a liability. He has not held an elected or administrative office, building his profile through banking, logistics, and government contracts. Supporters say that makes him less beholden to entrenched factions; critics argue it leaves him exposed to pressure from both Tehran and Washington.
If he succeeds in forming a government, he will be tasked with ensuring it is “free from terrorism”, in Mr Trump’s words, while navigating the tightrope between Iran and the US. If he fails, Iraq will return to caretaker rule and heightened uncertainty as the region remains volatile.
