When Iran launched missile strikes after a US-brokered ceasefire came into effect in April, American officials argued the incident did not constitute a major breach and maintained that the truce remained intact.
When Israel continued striking Lebanon for more than a year and a half after reaching a ceasefire with Hezbollah, killing hundreds and expanding military operations, a similar argument prevailed: the agreement was still holding despite repeated violations.
Since the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, a broader shift across the Middle East has been taking place as ceasefires, from Gaza to other fronts, are increasingly defined by the absence of a full-scale war.
Regional security and political officials told The National that this change carries significant risks: by lowering the threshold for what constitutes a ceasefire violation, warring actors may be normalising a state of prolonged low-intensity conflict that could endure for years if underlying disputes remain unresolved.
“From Iran and its attacks on Gulf countries to Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, the region is witnessing the emergence of a more flexible interpretation of ceasefire agreements,” a regional security official warned. “Limited strikes, targeted operations and ground incursions continue, yet agreements remain formally in place, with diplomatic efforts focused on preventing escalation rather than ending violence altogether.”
The pattern is particularly visible in Lebanon, where repeated justifications have been offered for continued Israeli military action, including claims of newly discovered militant positions and other operational requirements. One source in Beirut argued that the ceasefire was always fragile and designed to manage, rather than end, the conflict.
“The ceasefire served a particular set of calculations and interests. It has now lost whatever limited credibility it once had,” the Lebanese security source said, pointing to Israel's latest incursions into southern Lebanon and renewed threats against Beirut.
Since the latest ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect in April, hundreds of Lebanese civilians, medics and rescue workers have been killed in Israeli strikes as the military continued expanding its ground operations in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has maintained drone and rocket attacks. Yet neither side has declared the truce collapsed.
'Cycle will continue'
In recent days, however, the fighting has intensified to unprecedented levels. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled), the Israeli military sharply escalated its attacks in Lebanon as Iran and the US moved closer to finalising a regional ceasefire agreement expected to include Lebanon.
Between May 23 and May 26, at least 242 Israeli air and drone strike events were recorded across southern Lebanon, a 110 per cent increase compared with the period between May 19 and May 22. The escalation followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's declaration that Israel would intensify its campaign against Hezbollah. The group responded with about 30 attacks against Israeli forces during the same period.
Israel has also expanded military operations beyond the Litani River. According to Acled, several Israeli Merkava tanks were reportedly seen inside the town of Zaoutar El Charqiyeh, while the Israeli military declared the area south of the Zahrani River an “active combat zone”.
The developments come as Washington advances a proposal that would effectively redefine the ceasefire. A US official acknowledged that discussions centred on an arrangement under which Israel would retain freedom of military action while Hezbollah refrains from attacks, with Beirut largely exempted from Israeli strikes.
“To advance ongoing talks between Lebanon and Israel, Washington proposed a clear sequence: Hezbollah must stop all attacks on Israel. In return, Israel would refrain from escalation in Beirut. This would create space for gradual de-escalation and an effective cessation of hostilities,” the official said.
The same pattern has emerged elsewhere in the region. During the weekend, Kuwait announced it had come under attack as Iran responded to two strikes on its territory. Tehran said it had targeted American military facilities, while Washington said the attacks were directed at US troops stationed in Kuwait. Yet despite the exchange, neither side declared the US-Iran ceasefire over.
Saud Al Sharafat, a Jordanian security specialist and former intelligence brigadier general, said that Iran’s strength through its proxies would depend on the shape of the eventual deal with the US.Hezbollah and the remaining militias in Iraq could be revitalised if “the deal saves Iran face and allows Mojtaba Khamenei or any of the the IRGC commanders to stand on a porch and declare that Iran has made America kneel,” said Mr Al Sharafat, who leads the Shorufat ِCentre for Globalisation and Terrorism Studies in Amman.
An Arab official briefed on the regional security picture explained that the Middle East has entered an era of persistent warfare regardless of whether Washington and Tehran ultimately reach a broader agreement.
Over the past month, he said, several countries have conducted operations against pro-Iranian militias in Iraq after attacks linked to those groups targeted sites in many regional countries, despite the ongoing US-Iran ceasefire. “The cycle will continue,” he warned. “This is low-intensity warfare” now.
