When a Turkish defence industry official is asked about the effect of “the war” on business, he replies, “Which one?”
It is a telling sign of Turkey’s position, sandwiched between several conflicts. Syria and Lebanon are to the south. Russia and Ukraine are to the north, just across the Black Sea. Iran is directly to the east.
It is the Middle East war that is preoccupies many minds at the Saha defence show in Istanbul. A colossal display of everything from drone boats to Turkey's first intercontinental ballistic missile, the annual expo is a display of ambition by the Nato member, which has the alliance’s largest military after the US.
That ambition is not only to meet its own needs, but also to become one of the world’s largest sellers of arms and defence systems. The numbers are moving in the intended direction: Turkey's defence and aerospace exports rose from $200 million in 2002 to $10.6 billion last year, according to the head of the country’s state-owned defence operation.
Surge in Middle East demand
Istanbul-based Baykar, a private company, says it is the world’s largest exporter of drones, with overseas sales worth $2.2 billion in 2025.
It is not just drone technology but also ways to counter hostile unmanned aerial vehicles that are now driving the defence sector in Turkey, whose economy overall is worth $1.64 trillion.
a Turkish defence firm
Iran’s attacks across the region, in response to the US-Israeli strikes that began on February 28, have prompted a surge in demand from states seeking air defence technologies and anti-drone systems from Turkish defence firms, industry officials told The National at Saha.
“Demand has dramatically increased since the war started,” an official from state-linked firm Roketsan told The National. He asked that his name be withheld in order to discuss the matter.
Demand is strong and business is good, he said, and added that all defence companies had noted similar patterns. “We are trying to catch up to demand from the region.”
He declined to name specific customers but said several countries had shown interest in purchases. “Clients want to protect their airspaces,” he added.
Iran’s retaliatory attacks focused on the Gulf, and the UAE bore the brunt of its drone and missile strikes. As of May 8, Iran had fired 551 ballistic missiles, 29 cruise missiles and 2,263 drones at the country, resulting in the death of 10 civilians as well as two UAE Armed Forces personnel and a Moroccan civilian contractor working for the military.
The managing director of Emirati defence conglomerate Edge told The National this week that the firm’s systems had eliminated more than 85 per cent of the drones launched at the UAE.
Alongside the Ukraine war, the Iran conflict has “profoundly affected” regional and global security while “also increasing our responsibilities”, Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler told an audience at the Saha expo’s opening ceremony.
Of particular interest to potential customers, the Turkish industry officials said, are systems that can help countries protect their airspace against drones, such as the Iranian Shahed.
These are often harder for air defence systems to detect than ballistic missiles, and are launched in swarms, making them more difficult to intercept.
Their relatively low cost also complicates the calculations around using interception missiles that can cost millions of dollars to shoot them down.
Roketsan unveiled its Cirit C-UAS missile, designed as a “low-cost, low altitude” missile to counter drone attacks, at the Saha defence show.
Aselsan, another Turkish state-linked defence giant, has added new anti-drone elements to its Steel Dome air defence system.
international sales and marketing manager at MKE
Turkish state-owned firms are also bolstering their air defence offerings by introducing lower-cost interceptors.
“You are trying to destroy or eliminate a target that is a couple of thousand dollars, but you are using millions of dollars' worth of rockets,” said Ersin Kandur, international sales and marketing manager at MKE, a weapons manufacturer owned by the Defence Ministry.
“This is the actual problem that we are solving right now.”
MKE has developed the Tolga short-range air defence system to counter mini and micro drones, smart munitions and cruise missiles, and “with the current situation in the region, it is attracting a lot of attention,” Mr Kandur told The National. “We are receiving a lot of demand from all the countries in this region.”
The system’s ammunition is “much more cost-effective compared to our rivals in the sector,” he added.
The Turkish armed forces have the operational system and MKE is “negotiating right now for deliveries” to foreign customers, Mr Kandur added.
Cost and delivery speed are advantages that Turkish defence industry officials often say is their competitive edge.
“Our national precision-guided munitions, developed to Nato standards, directly increase the military capabilities of armies with the low-cost advantage they offer compared to foreign counterparts,” Mr Guler said at Saha.
That comes against the backdrop of a global defence industry where many companies have reported a surge in demand since the start of the Iran war.
BAE Systems in the UK and Reston, RTX, Northrop Grumman and GE Aerospace in the US are among the companies reporting strong demand and raised profit and revenue forecasts since the start of the Iran war.
“Turkish defence systems are top-notch and low cost, and we are their neighbour,” Iraq’s Deputy Army Chief of Staff for Operations, Lt Gen Saad Harbiye, told The National as he confirmed the purchase of 20 air defence systems.
But all systems have their limitations. Even as manufacturers develop systems to shoot down smaller and smaller drones, militant groups across the region are adapting. Drones just 18 centimetres wide are sturdy enough to carry an anti-personnel mine but small enough to easily go undetected.
“You can’t shoot them down,” Ufuk Aydiner, a military historian who also works as a product designer for a defence firm, told The National.
Foreign policy priorities
Turkey’s multibillion-dollar defence sales last year have placed it 11th in the list of the world’s largest arms suppliers, behind countries like Israel, the UK, the US, China and Russia.
The volume of arms exports from Turkey increased by 122 per cent from the period 2016-2020 to 2021-2025, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).
Haluk Gorgun, head of the state’s Presidency of Defence Industries, said Ankara aims to edge into the top 10. “We will grow our exports sustainably. We will further increase the global competitiveness of our companies,” he said at Saha’s opening ceremony. The Presidency is Turkey’s central defence acquisition and planning agency.
The delegations and firms present at Saha gave a clear indication of the relationships Turkey and its defence sector are trying to build.
Smartly dressed military officials from countries including Sudan and Rwanda pointed to Turkey’s push into Africa, where it is the largest arms supplier to sub-Saharan states behind Russia and China, Sipri says.
Ukrainian defence exports union Zbroya displayed drones and small arms, while Emirati companies including Edge formed part of the UAE stand.
Baykar signed deals worth at least $8 billion, including a contract with Indonesia for 12 unmanned combat aircraft. Aselsan signed a contract to build a joint venture with the Omani state-owned defence company Sinan Advanced Industries, which Aselsan chief executive Ahmet Akyol said would build relations with the "friendly and brotherly country of Oman".
Chinese state arms manufacturer Norinco had a colossal stand, but Russian and Iranian firms were notable by their absence. Both countries’ defence industries are under strict western sanctions.
Turkey maintains relations, sometimes tense, with both countries, but their presence would put off other countries whose presence is more vital to Ankara, an industry source told The National.
“If we invite the Russian or Iranians, the ones we really want — basically, the rest of the world – won't show up,” the source said.
Industry challenges
Turkey’s defence industry is not without its challenges.
The US Treasury placed the Presidency of Defence Industries under sanctions in 2020 during President Donald Trump’s first term, when Turkey acquired the S-400 surface-to-air missile system from Russia. Turkey-US relations have since improved, and in March Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said efforts were ongoing to have the sanctions lifted before the US midterm elections in November.
Despite its booming turnover and export figures, the sector in Turkey faces “long-term challenges”, a 2025 paper by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said. While industry officials speak of foreign-educated Turks returning to work in the industry, the paper noted that new market competitors and “an increasing rate of ‘brain drain’, especially since the late 2010s” in Turkey are obstacles.
Lawyers also point to the web of interconnected politics and economics in the export of Turkish military goods. Herdem Attorneys At Law, an Istanbul-based firm, cautions that Ankara “tightly controls” the export of military goods and technology and can “deny or delay [export licence] permissions based on foreign policy considerations”.
But at Saha, the industry is thinking about growth, not the obstacles to it.
“We are evolving more quickly than any other country,” said Mr Aydiner, the military historian.
