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The Syrian government's tasks in recent weeks have consisted of unveiling a new blue and teal police uniform, inviting composers to submit tunes for a national anthem to replace that of the former regime, and having public workers distribute free iftar meals to motorists, in a gesture of a prosperous state.
Syria appears to be a world away from the Iran war affecting its immediate Arab neighbours – Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan. A power consolidation drive by the post-Assad order continues unabated after the capture of large parts of northern and eastern Syria from Kurdish-led forces earlier this year.
Externally, the country could emerge in a stronger strategic position, even if Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah are not bombed into submission, according to a Syrian official who requested anonymity.
The US's war planners, he told The National, had factored in the need to maintain Syria’s stability before the February 28 outbreak of the war, and withdrew most US soldiers from Syria over the past month. That was no coincidence.
“The Americans understood Syria’s fragile situation ahead of the [Iran] war,” the official said, pointing to an economy still in tatters from the 2011-2024 civil war, and pro-Iran elements among Syria’s Shiite and Alawite communities, whom Tehran may try to reconnect with. However, Syria, which is majority Sunni, has not been hit with Iranian missiles and drones, unlike other countries in the region that host US bases.
The US, the official said, supports Syria’s “self-imposed remoteness” from the war. The government’s response, he said, has been mainly the deployment of troops to guard the borders against infiltration by Iran’s proxy militias in Iraq and in Lebanon, and to prevent these groups from using sleeper cells in Syria to attack Israel, which could draw Israeli retaliation against Syria.
The intervention of Iran and its proxies in Syria’s civil war was crucial for the survival of the dictator Bashar Al Assad until he was ousted in December 2024 by forces commanded by the current leader Ahmad Al Shara. Mr Al Shara, a former Al Qaeda operative, promised a transition to pluralism in five years and became friendly with the US. The US lifted sanctions on Syria last year and admitted the country to the anti-ISIS coalition, while Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries pledged billions of dollars in investment to rebuild vital sectors.
The promised flow of funds has been “frozen” since the outbreak of the war, the official said. “They will resume. Syria constitutes strategic depth for the Arabian Peninsula.”
Mr Al Shara has been careful to avoid offensive outside moves, particularly in Lebanon, the official said. However, many Syrian commanders would welcome an opportunity to fight Hezbollah to avenge its campaign in Syria during the civil war, he said,
Mr Al Shara addressed the issue as soon as he was declared President in January last year. He signalled that he had contained elements within rebel ranks who wanted to “continue into Lebanon” after they swept into Damascus and toppled the Assad regime. Operating under Russian air cover, Hezbollah played a main role in siege warfare against rebel urban centres during the civil war, and the eventual displacement of their inhabitants.
Unlike Syria’s intervention under Hafez Al Assad in the early stages of Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war, Damascus has neither the “grip on the internal front” nor the economic power to sustain a similar intervention, the official said. On Tuesday, Tom Barrack, US envoy to Syria and ambassador to Turkey, denied a Reuters report that Washington was urging a reluctant Mr Al Shara to send troops to Lebanon, as “false and inaccurate”.
Hezbollah, the Syria official said, is “spreading such rumours as a scare tactic to keep its weapons”. Since coming to office in February last year, the Lebanese government of Nawaf Salam, a former international jurist, has put pressure on the group to disarm, in fulfilment of the 1989 Taif agreement. The deal ended the civil war, but could not prevent renewed upheavals.
Waiel Olwan, head of research at the Jusoor Centre for Studies in Damascus, said “there will be no unilateral entry” of Syrian troops into Lebanon”. Mr Olawan did not rule out an intervention if the Lebanese army moves against Hezbollah and asks for Syria’s help. “Damascus will be ready then,” he said.
However, the government’s priority when the Iran war ends will be to bring the focus back to reconstruction flows, Mr Olwan said. He said stability in Syria is interconnected with rebuilding and recovery of its economy. “The Gulf thinks strategically and realises that supporting stability in Syria keeps Iran from coming back,” he said.
