Israel is preparing for a prolonged campaign in Lebanon likely to involve deeper incursions into the south as it seeks to annihilate threats from Hezbollah, The National has been told.
“The belief is that the war in Lebanon, with its focus on Hezbollah, will take more time than war in Iran, the reason being it is not only air strikes that are needed, but ground infiltration and holding on to key positions around the border,” an official briefed on the Israeli operation said.
Israel has been escalating attacks on Lebanon since Hezbollah joined the war against the US and Israel. The Israeli military is striking outside areas where the group traditionally holds influence and launching ground incursions in southern Lebanon, where it declared a buffer zone on March 3.
It has also threatened to widen its campaign against Lebanese infrastructure. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Friday that Israel could strike “Lebanese national infrastructure that is used by Hezbollah terrorists” as the bombardment expands.
The official said Israel was likely to push deeper into southern Lebanon. “I can’t see it staying where it is now. They will have to expand that area,” the source said, adding that the first objective was to “remove immediate threats” to communities in northern Israel.
“They know it will take time,” the official said.
Hezbollah has been launching daily attacks on northern Israel, including its largest so far on Thursday, carried out in co-ordination with Iran. The group's military capabilities mostly consist of “short-length rockets and lots of drones, probably fewer medium-range missiles”, they added.
Lebanese government action
The Lebanese state has been taking unprecedented steps to disarm Hezbollah since a ceasefire in November 2024. In January, Lebanese army commander Rodolphe Haykal said the army had cleared all Hezbollah military infrastructure south of the Litani River and deployed thousands of Lebanese soldiers in the area.
Meanwhile, Israel has violated the truce thousands of times, striking Lebanon on a daily basis and killing dozens of civilians.
The US had viewed Lebanon’s efforts as insufficient, a western diplomatic source told The National.
The US had begun losing confidence in Gen Haykal several months ago, accusing him of moving too slowly in implementing the disarmament plan, the diplomat explained.
The Lebanese army has been eager to implement the plan without entering a direct confrontation with the militant group, which is still influential in the Shia community, fearing this might cause civil strife.
Hezbollah attack 'blessing' for Israel
The official source with knowledge of the operation said Hezbollah’s attack on Israel was seen “as something of a blessing”.
This was “because just before the protests in Iran happened, Israel was gearing up for another operation in Lebanon”, the official added.
Israel has repeatedly accused Hezbollah of rearming south of the Litani after the ceasefire was agreed. “It was always the case that they wanted to go back into Lebanon, because the thinking was that Hezbollah should not have the option of getting stronger,” the official said.
“There was an understanding that, as with any militia, you can’t really destroy it in one go, but have to do it over time.”
Following Hezbollah’s entry into the war on March 2, the Lebanese government took new measures, banning the group’s military and security activities and arresting members. But these steps are too little for Washington, the western diplomat said.
“For the Americans, this is not enough. There are still no visible measures being taken by the Lebanese state,” the diplomat added. This week, a decision by a military judge to release Hezbollah fighters for the equivalent of a $20 bail was viewed very critically in Washington, they added.
The diplomatic source said Israel’s military escalation aimed to force the Lebanese state to act against Hezbollah.
“The international community remains aware of the constraints facing the Lebanese state and the limits of the measures at its disposal,” they added. “But a balance must be found: further steps need to be taken to show that the Lebanese state is serious about its decisions,” the diplomat said.
While foreign powers exert maximum pressure on the Lebanese government, Israel has never given guarantees that it will withdraw from its so-called buffer zone in southern Lebanon. Before the latest escalation, Israeli forces had also remained in five positions inside Lebanese territory, and have not said whether they would leave even if Hezbollah were disarmed.
Israeli pressure on the Lebanese government has put the whole country under fire, with strikes killing many civilians. As of Thursday, Israeli attacks had killed 687 people, including 98 children and 52 women, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health.
On Thursday, the Israeli army bombed central Beirut in a “double-tap” strike – in which the same target is hit twice in a short period – killing 11 people, including displaced civilians sheltering on a beach. On Friday, it destroyed a bridge in southern Lebanon.
Mr Katz said the bridge attack was “only the beginning”. “The Lebanese government, which misled and did not fulfil its commitment to disarm Hezbollah, will pay increasing prices through damage to infrastructure and the loss of territory, until the central commitment of disarming Hezbollah is fulfilled,” he added.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s attempts to engage in direct negotiations with Israel have gone unanswered. “We cannot really talk about an initiative or mediation at this stage,” an informed source in Lebanon said, adding that Mr Aoun had also reached out to Iran, without success.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to negotiate a ceasefire have also yielded little progress. Despite his call on March 12 for the Israeli army to “renounce a ground offensive” in Lebanon, Israel appears unwilling to back down and has continued its incursions.
The US, busy with the Iran war, does not see Lebanon as a priority.
For the Israelis, the informed source said, “this is now or never. They are operating in a mindset where they want to finish the job they did not finish in 2024”.
