Syria's government and a mostly Kurdish armed group have made some progress on a US-brokered integration deal crucial for stabilising the resource-rich east of the country, but the threat of renewed warfare lingers, observers said.
Neither side has pulled back from front lines, and they are yet to work out how to incorporate the American-trained and equipped Syrian Democratic Forces into the country's new military in accordance with the January 30 deal, monitors said. The army has been in formation phase since the removal of former president Bashar Al Assad in December 2024.
A Kurdish source in contact with the SDF said that talks are under way on how to incorporate thousands of its personnel into the regular army. They are expected to form three to four new army units, to be stationed outside north-eastern SDF-held cities near Syria's border with Turkey, the main regional backer of President Ahmad Al Shara.
"Where these units would be based is a source of disagreement," the source said. The SDF does not want to be too far from the cities, while the government wants the units to be based in remote areas.
The January 30 agreement halted fighting as regular forces and tribal auxiliaries began encircling large cities under SDF control near Turkey in the north-east, as well as the city of Kobani – officially called Ain Al Arab – to the west. Last week, the SDF allowed about 200 government security personnel, not from the military, into the cities of Hasakah and Qamishli, home to large Kurdish populations. They retook administrative buildings and some security compounds, but the SDF retained its presence in the cities.
Kurdish-majority Kobani, on the border with Turkey in Aleppo governorate, is another point of contention. It has been surrounded by government forces and tribal allies for several weeks, and most of its electricity and water supply has been cut off, although several UN aid convoys were allowed in. Talks in Aleppo two days ago between the SDF and the government on easing the siege of Kobani have failed, the Kurdish source said.
"It seems the regime will not let go of Kobani until the deal is implemented in the east," they said.
Longer timeframe
A security source in Jordan expected the integration deal to take at least three months to implement, compared to the one-month timeline given by Syrian officials.
"Basically, what we have is government forces locked inside their own compounds in Qamishli and Hasakah, while control is still with the SDF," the source said.
The SDF has also been fortifying its positions along two main roads leading to the border with the Kurdistan region in northern Iraq, to prevent an Arab tribal takeover that could cut off supplies to Hasakah and Qamishli. However, the source expected the SDF to allow government personnel into the Semalka border crossing with northern Iraq next week.
"The real test will be whether real government authority is established in the Kurdish heartland," the source said.
The SDF positioned itself as the defender of Syria's one million-strong Kurdish community after civil war broke out with an uprising against the Assad regime in 2011, although not all of the country's Kurds support it. US support for the group, which it helped to establish in 2015 in the fight against ISIS in Syria, started to wane after rebels toppled Mr Al Assad and established a new government that has quickly grown close to Washington.
The SDF has been clinging to survival since a government offensive recaptured most its territory over the past three weeks. Regular government forces were bolstered by Arab tribes and formations comprising former Turkish proxies from the civil war, during which the SDF acquired mostly Arab-populated territories.
The SDF chose not to resist the government offensive, which started in Aleppo and moved east, until the attacking forces approached the Kurdish concentrations of the north-east. Most of Syria’s farming, power and energy resources, which were under SDF control, have been restored to the central government.
