Britain is poised to outlaw Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps over parliamentary allegations it used cryptocurrency transactions via the UK to fund its suppression of protests.
Britain's International Development Minister disclosed the government was “actively considering what next steps we need to take on sanctions” against Iran.
In a statement to the House of Lords, Jenny Chapman said peers “will notice the difference in that comment than the one they usually receive”. She added: “We are considering measures in respect of proscription-like measures in respect of the IRGC.”
She was then asked by Lord Polak, chairman of the Conservative Friends of Israel, about reports that the IRGC had used two UK-registered cryptocurrency exchanges to move $1 billion since 2023, evading international sanctions.
What steps was the government taking “to stop the UK being used as a clearing house for Iran's terrorist folks?” he asked.
“We're being encouraged to go further with proscription,” the minister responded. She then referred to a report by Jonathan Hall, the government terrorism legislator, who recommended measures including legislation to curtail the IRGC's activities.
“We're looking closely at it," Ms Chapman said. "Obviously, we don't announce these decisions ahead of time because it diminishes their impact potentially but I think what I've said today does nudge things along in that direction.”
Proscription of the entire IRGC was yet to be taken because the IRGC is a state body and thus not within the scope of UK terror legislation.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said this week that legislation would be introduced to target finance, energy, transport and software industries “that are advancing Iranian nuclear escalation”.
Fragmenting Iran
The threat of the uprising could make the IRGC even more important, said Fabian Hinz at a webinar at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.
“We're seeing quite a bit of reporting and research about the younger ranks of the IRGC becoming increasingly radical,” he said. “That could become an issue in the future, with the IRGC already in a very dominant position in the economy, political sphere and the economic sphere.”
He was among a panel of Middle East experts who say Iran is struggling to contain the protests because the demonstrations are so widespread, with no clear leaders emerging.
The regime is also unable to mount a serious deterrent to external attack from the US, after its long-range missile and air defence arsenal was destroyed in the 12-day war with Israel last June, the experts said.
But it is the nationwide nature of the protests with no clear spearhead that is proving difficult for the regime to contain.
“Interestingly, we still don't have a clear idea of the leadership,” said Emile Hokayem, IISS Middle East security specialist. “At present it is quite fragmented, quite localised, which is why the regime has struggled to really decapitate this movement, because of its very organic nature.”
Mr Hokayem said a key moment to observe in coming days is whether the opposition, despite obstacles such as the internet shutdown, would be able to take control of city centres and bring potentially millions on to the streets as it did in 2009.
Mr Hinz argued that Iran’s military would find it difficult to respond to a US attack after their “air defence architecture was effectively neutralised” by Israel. He added: “Iran has not been able to reconstitute its capabilities.”
While The National and others have reported that Tehran was looking to buy Russian or Chinese equipment, this has “not materialised to a degree that would be significant”, he said.
That means US air strikes would be more straightforward, as an “extensive suppression of enemy air defence campaign” would not first be required.
Dr Hasan Alhasan told the conference that the “critical window” for the region was “between now and the point at which the US has enough air and missile defence” in place, before any US attack that could trigger Iranian retaliation with its short-range missiles.
He also warned of the potential for ethnic Iranian insurgencies if the regime collapsed and the “possibility of a mass refugee event in a country of more than 90 million people” only a short distance from Gulf states.
