The killing of Yasser Abu Shabab, leader of the most prominent Israel-aligned armed group in Gaza, has triggered significant upheaval within these militias.
The incident, which is shrouded in conflicting narratives, is being viewed as a turning point that may reshape the structure and future operations of these groups, which are active in Rafah and eastern Khan Younis.
Mr Abu Shabab's death is “a pivotal moment” in the evolution of armed groups formed to counter Hamas and pressure communities in areas under Israeli control, the Palestinian political analyst Wisam Afifa told The National.
Mr Afifa said the multiplicity of accounts about his death suggested that it stemmed from “an internal liquidation or engineered restructuring”, rather than a personal dispute, as initially claimed.
He identified three possible scenarios: a leadership struggle within the group; a targeted operation following a security breach by Hamas; or an Israeli-driven reorganisation aimed at installing new leadership.
Within hours of Mr Abu Shabab's death, Ghassan Al Dahini, a former Palestinian Authority security officer, emerged as the new commander of the militia, which operates in Rafah. According to information provided to The National by Hamas security officials in Gaza, Mr Al Dahini, born in 1987, had previously joined extremist organisations in Gaza and has long been considered a controversial figure.
His rapid ascent to the leadership has fuelled speculation about a co-ordinated internal reshuffle. Interrogations of defectors from the group indicate that Mr Al Dahini had been serving as Mr Abu Shabab’s deputy, and took part in engagements with Israeli media outlets, according to a Hamas security official who asked not to be identified.
Armed groups affiliated with Israel have strengthened their presence in Rafah and eastern Khan Younis, areas of southern Gaza where Hamas fighters have been unable to engage them directly due to the proximity of Israeli military positions.
Both areas are behind the "yellow line" to which the Israeli military withdrew on October 10 under a ceasefire plan to end two years of devastating war in the Palestinian enclave. The Hamas security official said the Israel-backed armed groups attempted to project strength online, but that internal weaknesses have become increasingly apparent.
“Testimonies from surrendered members describe disputes, lack of co-ordination, and serious internal instability,” the official told The National. He said militia leadership has imposed strict measures to prevent defections, including limiting communication, restricting movement and isolating members socially.
In eastern Khan Younis, a separate militia formed early this year by Hussam Al Astal, a former officer in the Palestinian Authority's Preventive Security force with a history of criminal charges, is also facing internal turmoil, the security official said.
Several of its fighters have surrendered since the killing of Mr Abu Shabab. According to their accounts, fear, leadership disputes and planned splits have intensified. Mr Al Astal's family previously issued a statement disowning him and condemning his actions.
Residents of southern Gaza say the militias are increasingly viewed as unstable and fracturing. “We see their videos online, but those who leave the groups say they’re weak and falling apart from within,” Mu’min Muslim, who was displaced from Rafah and now lives in the Al Mawasi area in western Khan Younis, told The National.
He said that a neighbour who recently defected from Mr Abu Shabab's group had confirmed that there were rising tensions, internal disputes and exchanges of gunfire among members. Defectors have also reported allegations of field executions carried out by Mr Al Dahini against fighters accused of communicating with Hamas, Mr Muslim said.
According to Mr Afifa and the Hamas security official, further shifts in the internal dynamics of these groups are expected. Potential developments include new leadership struggles, rapid turnover of members, increased defections and intelligence leaks.
“The landscape inside these armed groups is fluid,” Mr Afifa said. “We may see new figures emerge and further turbulence as these militias attempt to reorganise.”
