A year after Assad's downfall, Syria's Al Shara pursues consolidation at home and pragmatism abroad

The National explores the plans of the country's authorities and the three main categories of their governing structure

Its members still call each other by their noms de guerre, even a year after toppling the Assad regime. The state is now firmly in its grip, the country's security forces bolstered by foreign fighters.

Yet Syria’s new government insists it will deliver pluralism and it may soon find itself courting the US as a prospective ally.

President Ahmad Al Shara said “we are not ashamed of our past” at a talk to Syrians in Washington last month, where he was joined by Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani. Mr Al Shara addressed him as Abu Aisha as he outlined his vision for an economically resurgent Syria, with a new constitution and elections in five years, according to someone who attended the event.

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Mr Al Shibani was known as Abu Aisha when he was a militant comrade of Mr Al Shara in Iraq and Syria. Mr Al Shibani helped him found Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, the former Al Qaeda affiliate, which led the assault that toppled the Assad regime on December 8, 2024.

After dawn prayers on Monday, Mr Al Shara praised "the sacrifices and heroism of the fighters" who entered Damascus a year ago. Wearing the same military attire as he did when he went in the capital, he called on all Syrians to work together to rebuild their country. "The current phase requires the unification of efforts by all citizens to build a strong Syria, consolidate its stability, safeguard its sovereignty, and achieve a future befitting the sacrifices of its people," he said.

The toppling of the regime one year ago resulted in a major geopolitical transformation, all but ending the influence of Iran and Russia in Sunni-majority Syria. The Assad regime had ruled Syria since a 1970 coup, led by Hafez Al Assad, father of ousted president Bashar Al Assad. Hafez Al Assad had cemented the domination of the Alawite minority over the country by allying with the Soviet Union and supporting Iran in the Iraq-Iran War.

With US sanctions hitting the Syrian economy, Mr Al Shara has been co-operating with Washington on counter-terrorism in exchange for the normalisation of ties, although a complete lifting of sanctions has not yet been announced.

Pictures of people killed during the Syrian civil war on display at the Syrian Revolution Military Exhibition in Damascus. Getty Images

The Syrian pound is trading at 12,000 to the dollar, similar to the exchange rate in the last year of the Assad regime, as near-daily violence continues. However, there have been improvements in electricity supplies and other services, while Damascus has received pledges of billions of dollars in investment from Gulf states.

Three categories

A US official said Mr Al Shara “has done a lot” to bring Syria close to the US, but “he needs to do more” on issues such as the presence of foreign fighters, who were part of the 11-day offensive that toppled Mr Al Assad. Regional security sources said there were still senior ranks outside a special army unit formed at the beginning of the year to contain foreign HTS allies in the country.

Mr Al Shara also opened channels with his old adversary, Russia, to try to limit Israeli expansion in Syria and help lift UN terrorist designations on HTS and its commanders. His supporter, Turkey, has enhanced military co-operation with the government, as Israel has carried out repeated incursions into Syria.

Despite the presence of the Turkish military in Syria and strong intelligence ties between the two countries, the US has quickly established itself as the main influence on the government, a regional security official said. In November, Mr Al Shara met US President Donald Trump at the White House and joined the anti-ISIS coalition.

"The degree of attention Trump is awarding him is astonishing, given his history with Al Qaeda," the security official said. He added that the US has continued with that approach despite misgivings by some American allies about the employment of Islamists in the government and the influence by Turkish-backed rebel groups with connections to the Muslim Brotherhood, who are now part of the army, particularly in Aleppo province.

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A Syrian official who recently returned from exile to take a position in the government in Damascus said that its cadres were divided into three categories, according to organisational principles HTS adopted during its rise in the northern province of Idlib.

Any Islamist-linked figures fall into the third category. They number in the thousands and are called "mufawadoun", meaning those who are bestowed with executive leeway to achieve a specific task, such as running a government department, or a ministry where technical expertise is needed.

The middle category, comprising dozens or even hundreds of men, is called "mutaniffithoun", or influence holders. They have more power and include people such as Mr Al Shara's brother Hazem, who holds sway over Syria's economy.

The top tier is more exclusive. Known as "nawat al salbat", or hard nucleus, it comprises only a few men with decision-making powers. Among them are Mr Al Shara, Mr Shibani and Interior Minister Anas Khattab, also known as Abu Ahmad Al Hudud, a reference to previous militant roles on the border between Syria and Iraq.

Easing political pressure

The Syrian official said Mr Al Shara has been a hands-on leader, even in the economic matters, meeting foreign investors personally. Improvement in living conditions, he said, would widen the base of the government, which is rooted in the outlying northern areas that fell outside the control of the Assad regime during the war.

Mr Al Shara believes that "once people feel that their lot is improving, the political pressures would ease". The official said the Sunni majority, in particular, do not want to see the President fail.

In March, Mr Al Shara sent loyalist forces to the Alawite coastal heartland after what the government described as a “mutiny” in the area. At least 1,300 Alawite civilians were killed in clashes in the the region, but there was little domestic outcry.

There was further violence in July in the mostly Druze southern province of Sweida, which left hundreds of civilians dead. Israel launched strikes during the fighting in what it said was an effort to protect the Druze. In the coast and the south, loyalist militias acted on the side of the government.

To the east, the presence of US forces and diplomatic efforts by Washington have prevented an armed conflict between the central government and the mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Many members of the country's minority groups have concerns about the ideological underpinning of the government.

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At the Doha Forum last week, Mr Al Shara said Islam does not contradict the "principle" that people should choose who rules them, but that Syria needs time to "build institutions that would function indefinitely".

The government has declared Monday and Tuesday to be holidays to mark Syria's "liberation" from the Assad regime. Rallies started early, after Mr Al Shara last week urged Syrians to take to the streets to celebrate the start of the offensive that toppled Mr Al Assad.

He issued the call a day after Alawite demonstrations, mainly on the coast, to demand a halt to the killing of members of the sect. Protesters also want a decentralised form of government, rather than the current unitary state. However, the protests were overshadowed by the hundreds of thousands of people who responded to Mr Al Shara's call for celebrations.