A Gaza ceasefire offers no assurance that Israel will halt its strikes in Lebanon or across the region, Lebanese political experts and Hezbollah officials have told The National, and future escalation depends on US or Israeli interests and shifting goals.
Israel’s military said on Friday that it was now observing the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. This came into effect at 12pm local time, the military said.
After US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday night that Israel and Hamas had accepted the first phase of a ceasefire, questions emerged over what the deal means for a region that has been mired in turmoil since October 7, 2023.
In Lebanon, Israel has continued to strike what it says are Hezbollah targets despite a ceasefire being reached almost a year ago. Syria has continued to see repeated Israeli attacks despite the fall of the Assad regime late last year, while Iran fought a 12-day war with Israel in June.
For analyst Joseph Daher, the Gaza ceasefire will not necessarily mean regional stability, which he says depends on how the interests of Mr Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain unpredictable and could change.
“For now, there’s a wait-and-see posture depending on what is negotiated in the next phases,” said Mr Daher.
He expects a sustained push for Hezbollah to disarm. This could intensify if maximum pressure is applied on Hamas to surrender its weapons in the next phases of the Gaza ceasefire, which both parties have yet to agree on, said Mr Daher.
“The greater the pressure on Hamas, the more likely Hezbollah will also be pushed to surrender its weapons. The message will be: 'the Palestinian-led resistance front no longer exists, there is no reason to keep your weapons',” he added.
Israel and the US have exerted unprecedented pressure on the Lebanese government to carry out the push to disarm Hezbollah, or otherwise risk violent reprisals or losing potential aid from Washington.
Referring to the pace of the disarmament push, a former senior Lebanese official told The National that they “don't see there’s a satisfaction with what’s happening”, from an international and regional perspective.
Hezbollah has strongly resisted the push to lay down its weapons, particularly when Israeli troops continue to occupy south Lebanon and bomb the country almost daily.
With the “Axis of Resistance” − a network of Iran-backed armed groups that includes Hamas and Hezbollah − significantly degraded over the past two years of war, the question remains whether Israel will stop here or seize the moment to push further.
Mr Daher said there are strong indications that a hardline stance could be taken to push Hamas to disarm, something the group has not explicitly committed to in the negotiations.
“This will depend on Mr Trump’s calculations,” Mr Daher said. “But he also has his own personal, political and strategic interests which sometimes contradict each other; it’s impossible to know what will happen,” he added.
Conflict with no end
Hezbollah itself does not view the Gaza ceasefire as the end of the regional conflict.
Youssef Al Zein, the head of Hezbollah’s media relations, told The National there is a “broader Israeli project” that is “gradually expanding across the region and driven by aggressive intentions towards Lebanon and Syria”.
Since the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has seized swathes of land in southern Syria, launched waves of air strikes across the country and destroyed much of the Syrian army’s heavy weaponry, all while the new government in Damascus has repeatedly said it is not seeking direct confrontation.
Mr Al Zein said Hezbollah expects the conflict would remain open, though the intensity may vary, arguing that Mr Netanyahu needs war to evade domestic issues.
“Israel, and specifically Mr Netanyahu, sees the war as an opportunity to escape accountability and distract from political turmoil,” he told The National.
However, Hezbollah does not expect a full-scale war in Lebanon. “Israel could continue the kind of continuing escalation we are witnessing, with its intensity rising or falling depending on Israeli calculations of interest and timing,” he said.
Syrian question unresolved
The issue of Israel’s hostilities towards Syria and its occupation of the country’s southern region also remains unresolved.
Experts have described Israel’s presence in Syria as an attempt to create a buffer zone, part of a more aggressive defence policy adopted after the war in Gaza, and a “bargaining chip” in future peace negotiations where withdrawal terms would be set.
For Gen Mounir Shehadeh, a former Lebanese army officer, many of Israel's actions in Syria are part of an effort to stoke further discord and tension within the country. “Because dividing Syria would trigger the fragmentation of the entire region,” he said.
Mr Daher said that the question of the occupation of southern Syria will be tied to a potential future agreement between Israel and the Syrian government.
Washington has been lobbying for countries in the region to normalise their relations with Israel, a push which Mr Daher says is full of contradictions.
“They want countries in the region to normalise with Israel, while supporting all the hostile actions Israel is carrying out against its regional neighbours,” he said.
All eyes on Iran
For many observers and actors on the ground, the greatest risk of escalation lies not in Lebanon or Syria, but in Iran, which Israel attacked in June, accusing it of nearing the development of nuclear weapons that threatened its national security.
Gen Shehadeh, who was tasked with co-ordinating with Unifil peacekeepers in Lebanon from 2021 to 2023, said in many ways his country was a secondary issue for Israel, and that its main focus now was on a future war with Iran.
The daily bombardments on Lebanon would continue, he said, but Gen Shehadeh saw another full-scale ground invasion as unlikely.
“It will continue to pressure Lebanon through air strikes, hitting deeper areas inside the country to push the Lebanese authorities towards its goal – disarming Hezbollah; not tomorrow, but now. But it doesn’t mean it needs a ground war,” he said.
“I think Israel’s and America’s main effort now will move towards a new round of war on Iran aimed at toppling the regime, which would turn into a regional war,” he added.
Hezbollah also appears to believe that its patron Iran will be the next focus.
“Israel may see that it failed to achieve its goals during its last round of attacks against the Islamic Republic, and that the renewed sanctions have created new opportunities,” Mr Al Zein said.
For Mr Daher, the jury is still out on whether there will be an escalation with Iran. The prospect of renewed tension depends on whether Washington sees any benefit in increasing pressure on Tehran over its nuclear programme.
“The question remains: do the Americans today have an interest in increasing pressure on Iran or not? If there’s an interest in extracting further concessions, why not [increase pressure]? But the question remains open,” he said.
