The ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel exists “in name only”, a western diplomatic source has said, as Israel continues to hit Lebanon almost daily, despite a US-brokered deal that ended 14 months of fighting last November.
“It’s a ceasefire in name only. It's more of a de-escalation, as Israel strikes wherever and whenever it wants,” the western diplomatic source told The National.
Israel has breached the ceasefire thousands of times, according to data from Unifil, the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon. Breaches include air incursions, air strikes and ground operations.
The UN said on Wednesday that the Israeli strikes on Lebanon have killed more than 100 civilians in 10 months. The continuing attacks have threatened the legitimacy of Lebanon’s new government, the western diplomat added. The current Lebanese government has been widely welcomed by the international community as reformist and is the first to have initiated formal steps to disarm Iran-backed Hezbollah.
“There is a kind of ‘Syrianisation’ of Lebanon”, the diplomatic source said.
During former Syrian president Bashar Al Assad’s rule, which ended last December, Damascus was an ally of both Hezbollah and Iran. Israel regularly struck Hezbollah weapons depots and convoys on Syrian territory, drawing little formal international condemnation.
“But the difference is that the Syrian regime was shunned by the international community, while this government is seen as reformist,” the western diplomat said.
Many observers view US-backed President Joseph Aoun and international lawyer Nawaf Salam, who was appointed Prime Minister in January, as an opportunity to push through reforms, including introducing a state monopoly on weapons, after years of leadership vacuum.
Despite this, the Israeli military has confirmed carrying out hundreds of air strikes on its northern neighbour since November 2024, saying they targeted Hezbollah positions.
Lebanon, however, says the strikes have also hit civilians and destroyed homes. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said: “We are still seeing devastating impacts of jet and drone strikes in residential areas, as well as near UN peacekeepers in the south.”
There have been no reports of deaths from rockets fired from Lebanon towards Israel since the ceasefire, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said.
The war began when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel in solidarity with Hamas, a day after the group’s deadly incursion into southern Israel on October 7, 2023, that triggered the Gaza war. Israel responded with shelling and air strikes in Lebanon, escalating the clashes into a full-scale war by late September 2024.
Israeli forces killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians, while 127 people were killed in Israel, among them 80 soldiers.
'Maintaining maximum pressure'
Under the November ceasefire terms, Hezbollah was to begin disarming starting south of the Litani River, about 30km from the Israeli border. Israel, in turn, was required to stop violating Lebanon’s airspace and withdraw its forces from five positions it occupies inside Lebanon.
Israel has remained in the five positions it deems strategic and has shown no sign it intends to leave, US envoy Tom Barrack said in an interview with The National.
In September, the Lebanese government agreed on a plan to disarm Hezbollah, a historic decision adopted under heavy US pressure. The plan did not set a firm deadline for implementation and acknowledged the army’s limited capabilities.
The Lebanese army said that 90 per cent of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure has been dismantled south of the Litani River.
“Lebanon, for its part, has come a long way, the issue of disarmament is now on the table, along with the adoption of several reform-orientated laws,” the western diplomat said.
Hezbollah has consistently refused any comprehensive disarmament plan as long as Israel continues to hit Lebanon and keeps troops inside Lebanese territory, in violation of the truce.
“Israel’s goal is to maintain maximum pressure. The problem is that the longer these strikes continue, the greater the risk that this government loses its legitimacy," the diplomat said. "At the same time, it strengthens Hezbollah’s argument that it must keep its weapons."
In face of stalemate, with Israel’s refusal to provide guarantees that it will uphold its side of the truce, and Hezbollah’s rejection to disarm without them, the future remains uncertain, the diplomatic source said.
“Whether the situation slides back into escalation or remains in a fragile status quo depends entirely on Benjamin Netanyahu's calculations. And those are hard to read,” they added.
Humanitarian law concerns
Meanwhile, OHCHR said that civilians are bearing the brunt of the conflict. Israeli strikes have prevented more than 80,000 residents from returning home, it said.
Border villages, razed by Israel during its intense two-month air campaign, as well as after the truce was signed, remain in ruins.
While cash-strapped Lebanese authorities are unable to cover the $11 billion bill estimated for reconstruction, Israel has also hampered rebuilding efforts, even minor ones, by destroying temporary structures and heavy machinery.
“Today, families are simply unable to make a start on rebuilding their homes and their lives, and instead are faced by the real and present danger of more strikes. Hundreds of damaged schools, health facilities, places of worship, among other civilian sites, are still no-go zones, or at best, only partly usable,” Mr Turk said.
On Thursday, an Israeli strike killed two engineers working for Jihad Al Bina, a Hezbollah-affiliated construction company, about 10km from the Israeli border. Jihad Al Bina helped rebuild parts of southern Lebanon after the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, with funding from Iran.
On Monday, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said one person was killed in an Israeli strike on an excavator in the eastern Bekaa Valley.
As a powerful militia and social service provider, Hezbollah oversees a network of civilian institutions. Political affiliation alone does not make a target legitimate under international humanitarian law.
On September 21, an Israeli air strike on the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil killed five people, including three children. At their funeral, the coffins were draped with the Lebanese flag rather than Hezbollah’s, which is customary for the group’s supporters.
Mr Turk called for an independent and impartial investigation into the incident, along with other cases raising concerns about violations of international humanitarian law.
