The Syrian military is planning a major offensive by October to capture two main provinces on the Euphrates River from a mostly Kurdish militia that has refused to submit to Damascus, security sources told The National.
If the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) does not hand over the bulk of its territorial possessions, a Syrian attack force of 50,000 being assembled near the desert city of Palmyra will sweep north and capture the governorates of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor with support from their overwhelmingly Arab tribal populations, the sources said.
One of the sources, who holds a sensitive security position in Syria, said the offensive would not go ahead “without an American green light”. Another key would be ensuring non-intervention by Israel, which last month bombed Damascus in what it said was an effort to protect Druze amid deadly violence in the southern province of Sweida.
US-sponsored talks have failed to make progress in bridging differences between the two sides. The secular SDF is increasingly being seen as recalcitrant in Washington by not handing any significant powers to Damascus, the source said – a view closer to that of Turkey, which wants the SDF's demise.
Deadly clashes
Re-establishing central control of SDF territory has emerged as a major obstacle to stabilisation since the removal of former Syrian president Bashar Al Assad in December in an offensive led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), a militia that broke ties with Al Qaeda in 2016.
Deadly clashes have increased between the SDF and forces loyal to Damascus since the US-sponsored talks between the two sides faltered last month. The two sides signed a deal in March to integrate the SDF into the Syrian army, but relations have soured since then.
Urged by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the US embarked in May on normalisation with Damascus. President Donald Trump met President Ahmad Al Shara in Riyadh, giving a glimpse of a potential alliance that could weaken Iran and Russia, and their allies in the Middle East.
Staging grounds
Another source said that staging grounds for the offensive are being prepared in the desert areas of Rasafah, on the road between Palmyra to Raqqa, and in Sukhnah, which links Palmyra with Deir Ezzor. Turkish proxies in the governorate of Aleppo, now part of the new Syrian army, would move against SDF positions east of the Euphrates, near Tishreen Dam, once the multipronged attack begins.
In the past eight years of the Syrian civil war, Turkey had carved out a zone in northern Syria, reliant on rebel allies now in power in Damascus, to limit the territorial expansion of the SDF.
Arab tribesmen, thousands of whom had joined the SDF, would be expected to turn against the group at the start of military action, the source said. About 30 per cent of the 70,000 core SDF members are members of Arab tribes.
“They have so many scores to settle with the Kurds,” the source said, referring to an SDF land grab of Arab areas since the US set up the Kurdish force in 2015 as the main ground component in the war against ISIS in Syria.
Even a major advance by the government would leave the SDF with the province of Hasakah, where the Kurdish population is significant. Raqqa and Deir Ezzor are overwhelmingly Arab. The Kurds account for about 10 per cent of Syria’s 23.8 million population, according to the CIA’s World Factbook. However, currently SDF-held areas account for most of Syria’s output of commodities, electrical power, and energy.
US State Department officials have been urging the SDF to compromise, although it is seen as retaining strong support within US security branches. The SDF wants a federal system, an anathema Damascus, and to remain as a single unit, even if it joins the Syrian army.
In remarks to loyalists in Idlib late on Saturday, Mr Al Shara said he hoped Syria could avoid military conflict with the Kurds if efforts were to collapse.
During the civil war, Russia, Iran, Turkey and the US built their own zones of influence in the country. But only Turkish and American forces have remained in Syria, as well as Russian troops confined to two main bases. Most of an estimated 20,000 Turkish force are deployed near SDF areas, while the 1,000 American troops are mainly on bases within SDF territory.
