Sudan divided between two governments - or is one of them a bargaining chip?

Formation of rival administrations suggests country at risk of breaking up

A displaced mother prepares food at a camp shelter in Tawila, North Darfur. Reuters

Sudan now has two governments based in cities at opposite ends of the vast Afro-Arab nation, separated by hundreds of kilometres of desert, lush green fields, the Nile and a trail of destruction and hunger.

The possibility of Sudan breaking up as a result of its civil war has become real after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which have been fighting the army since April 2023, recently declared the establishment of a parallel government in areas under their control.

The new government is based in the city of Nyala in the western region of Darfur, which is fully controlled by the RSF except for the army-held city of El Fasher.

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More than 2,000km to the east on the Red Sea is Port Sudan, home to the army-backed government appointed this year.

The existence of two governments mirrors conditions in Yemen across the Red Sea and in Libya, Sudan's neighbour to the north – two Arab nations widely viewed as failed states, with violence and instability tearing them apart since popular uprisings more than a decade ago.

Heavily damaged buildings in the south-western Lamab suburb of Sudan's capital Khartoum on July 30. AFP

Now with two governments and a pair of prime ministers, Sudan has not looked so close to breaking up since citizens of its south voted to secede in 2011, a move that cost Sudan a third of its land mass and much of its oil wealth.

"The existence of two capitals presents a secessionist scenario that only deepens our divisions and threatens the unity of Sudan," said Sudanese political analyst Bahaaeldeen Issa.

RSF chief Gen Mohamed Dagalo has been named head of the Nyala administration's "Presidential Council", with the leader of a powerful rebel group, Adam Al Hilu, as his deputy. Five others were named to sit on the council. The administration also includes eight regional governors, some of whom are symbolically named to run army-held regions.

Mohammed Al Tayashi – a former member of Sudan's army-led Transitional Sovereignty Council from 2019 until 2021 – was appointed as Prime Minister.

The creation of the Nyala government only deepened the effects of the civil war on Sudan, a resource-rich yet impoverished nation that has often looked close to unravelling in the nearly 70 years since independence.

Already, half of Sudan's 50 million population are facing acute hunger as a result of the war, and more than 13 million have been displaced and tens of thousands are thought to have been killed.

The already distant prospect of a peaceful settlement of the war may have significantly diminished after the creation of the Nyala government, which the army calls a "phantom" entity.

An outdoor market in Khartoum's twin city of Omdurman on July 29. AFP

However, the declaration of the parallel government may have in part been a tactic rather than an attempt at enshrining division, according to Sudanese analyst Osman Al Mirghany.

"If the war ends now or shortly, the RSF may drop the idea of a parallel government. But if the war continues, it will be a substitute for peace and serve as a vehicle of secession."

The Nyala government is yet to be recognised by any foreign power, but its formation gives the RSF, whose forerunner is a notorious Darfur militia called Janjaweed, a bargaining chip in any future negotiations.

For now, it also gives the RSF a much-needed measure of respectability and provides an entity with which foreign powers can deal directly, rather than a paramilitary widely accused of war crimes, including ethnic cleansing in Darfur.

Its formation comes at a time when the war adversaries are at a standstill militarily, with the army in control of the capital as well as the northern, eastern and central regions. The army has also faced allegations of war crimes.

The RSF holds sway over Darfur and parts of Kordofan, much of which is held by the paramilitary's ally, Mr Al Hilu's Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North.

Displaced Sudanese stand in line to receive humanitarian aid on their arrival in Khartoum on July 28. AFP

The army and its allies have been engaged in battle with the RSF in Kordofan in recent weeks, hoping to fight their way to Darfur where they aim to lift the months-long siege of El Fasher and take back the region.

They are not making much progress and are not likely to do so any time soon, barring unforeseen developments, say analysts.

The presence of rival governments, they explain, is not the worst of Sudan's problems at present, citing corruption in the Port Sudan government, the near-total absence of state institutions, lack of basic services in many areas and a serious crime wave in the capital.

Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, the army chief and de facto leader of Sudan, has repeatedly vowed to press on with the fight until the RSF is completely destroyed or surrenders. He has refused several bids to restart peace negotiations.

Gen Dagalo, however, has been keen on negotiations, a position that the analysts believe is rooted in the RSF's lack of mid- or long-term plans for its future and the ambiguity that shrouds its war goals.

Displaced Sudanese families at Cairo's main railway station before boarding a train to Aswan in southern Egypt, where buses will take them back to Khartoum. Reuters

"This is a conflict about power and resources, not democracy," said Sami Saeed, a US-based Sudan expert.

Erwah Al Sadeq, a Sudanese anti-war campaigner, believes that both the army and the RSF see a peaceful settlement of the war as a threat to their political and military future.

"The army is clinging to the legitimacy of the state but rejects reforms, and the RSF suspects that any settlement will mean it will have to disarm and the end of its existence," Mr Al Sadeq said.

The rebuilding of Sudan as a secure and civil nation, he added, "requires a comprehensive project of political, social and moral resistance. Without it, there will be more than one capital and more than one border inside one nation."