Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party gained a small increase in popularity after the country’s 12-day war with Iran, although his far-right coalition remains a long way from being able to win a majority.
Likud was forecast to get 26 seats, a small climb that would largely come at the expense of parties already in his coalition. This is a worrying prospect for the Prime Minister, whose popularity has fallen since the October 7 attacks and who has struggled to make political alliances with parties other than those on the most extreme right and religious wings of Israeli politics since his continuing corruption trial began.
Sources close to Mr Netanyahu told Israeli network Channel 12, which carried out the poll after Tuesday’s ceasefire, that he was disappointed with the numbers. Unlike the Gaza War, the campaign against Iran enjoyed overwhelming support among Jewish Israelis.
The coalition was forecast to get 49 seats, well below the number needed to get a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Mr Netanyahu won the last election, in late 2022, with a coalition of 64 seats.
According to the numbers, Mr Netanyahu is tailed closely by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, with 24 seats. Thirty-eight per cent of respondents said they would prefer Mr Netanyahu as prime minister, with Mr Bennet getting 35 per cent.
Left-wing party The Democrats come in third with 12 seats. The poll put the total number of seats won by opposition parties at 61, excluding parties that represent Palestinian citizens of Israel. They do not usually join governing coalitions, although some did in the previous government.
Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, one of the most extreme members of the current coalition, would not win sufficient votes to enter the next parliament, although similarly extreme National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party would win six seats.
Elections are due to be held in October 2026. Channel 12’s report suggested Mr Netanyahu’s disappointment at the numbers could stop him from trying to call an early election, after he appeared to hint he might do so during a press conference on Sunday.
Israeli outlet Haaretz reported on Wednesday that Mr Netanyahu is not seeking an early election, at least not before an end to the Gaza War and the return of hostages held in the strip. He also wants “the Saudi channel, with normalisation and trade agreements with it and other countries such as Indonesia”, a source, described as a close adviser, told the paper.
“After this achievement, it is reasonable to assume he will choose to move up the election,” the source said.
Mr Netanyahu has long touted normalisation with Saudi Arabia, as well as other Muslim states, as a key foreign policy goal.
