As the conflict between Israel and Iran dramatically escalates, with the US considering whether to intervene to back its long-time ally, a pressing question has emerged: will Tehran's proxies rush to the rescue of their patron?
Hostilities between Iran and Israel have reached unprecedented levels, entering a seventh day of confrontation, after Israel launched attacks last Friday on Iran claiming to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The strikes prompted a series of retaliatory missile barrages from Iran.
Sources in Iran's proxy groups have shared differing views on whether they will join the fight with Iran. A Hezbollah source says it will remain on the sidelines, regardless of whether the US intervenes, while Yemen's Houthi rebels are the only proxy to have announced attacks against Israel in support of Iran.
The proxy groups, however, have stressed their autonomy from Tehran.
The so-called Axis of Resistance is an Iran-led network that includes Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and armed groups in Iraq, whose aim is to deter Israel from conducting military action and countering its influence in the region. Many of these groups have fought against Iran's enemies in their respective countries.
The groups launched attacks against Israel as part of a support campaign for Hamas and the Palestinian people after the Gaza war broke out on October 7, 2023. But months of fighting with Israel, which holds clear military dominance, has considerably eroded the operational capacity of the axis.
Hezbollah, once a formidable militia and Iran’s most powerful proxy, was battered by nearly 14 months of conflict with Israel that ended in November, leaving much of its chain of command dismantled and its arsenal decimated. The group has made it clear that it does not intend to take part in any retaliatory action to support Iran.
Lebanese MP Hassan Fadlallah described Iran as a “key regional power” that is capable of defending itself, in an interview with pro-Hezbollah outlet Al Mayadeen. “It does not ask others to fight on its behalf,” he said.
The group is under pressure to disarm and faces growing discontent from those in Lebanon who accuse it of dragging the cash-strapped country into a war it could not afford, and causing damage worth several billion dollars.
Once a kingmaker, Hezbollah is now grappling with a loss of influence within the Lebanese political scene. A Lebanese official told The National that the army sent a message to Hezbollah, urging it not to intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict and warning against dragging the country into yet another devastating war. “They said they wouldn’t,” the official said.
“We’re doing everything we can, calls, meetings, to prevent any escalation,” the official added. “This is not our war."
Some fear a potential US intervention against Iran might compel Hezbollah to join the fight. Statements attributed to an Iranian official suggested that, if the US became directly involved – an idea President Donald Trump has been publicly floating for days – Hezbollah would join forces with Tehran.
A Hezbollah source firmly denied the claim. “I don't think the statement is true … who is this source? Iran can defend itself,” the source told The National. The sources confirmed that it was a Hezbollah decision, not an Iranian decision. “Unfortunately the media fabricates fake news."
Cautious but ready
In Iraq, which is home to several Tehran-backed militias that, unlike Hezbollah, remain largely intact, a senior militant leader told The National that the decision to open a front would depend “on developments".
“The current situation calls for caution and wisdom, but also readiness to respond if Iran comes under full-scale attack,” he said.
The militant said US intervention could be a game-changer in how the groups perceive their role in the conflict. “We advise the United States not to get involved in the war – it has tried before and ended in failure," he said. "Any American aggression against Iran will directly affect Iraq, and Iraqis have the right to defend their sovereignty, religious beliefs and dignity."
He warned that any attempt at regime change in Iran – which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown increasing interest in, beyond merely destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities – would lead to regional chaos.
“Iraq lies between two blazing arenas, and the resistance factions will not stand idly by," he added.
Yemen’s Houthis are the only proxy group to have announced joint military co-operation with Tehran since the recent escalation. The Houthis have launched attacks against Israel and ships in the Red Sea in support of Palestinians in Gaza since October 2023.
On Sunday, the group said it fired ballistic missiles at Israel in support of “the oppressed Palestinian and Iranian peoples".
A Yemeni source in the capital Sanaa said there was “no joint operations room between the Iranians and the Houthis", but rather continued co-ordination.
“When Houthis are required to strike, they carry out the strike independently," the source added. "This is what we’ve observed in the nature of their operations. This is also what Sanaa and Iranian officials have affirmed since the beginning of the operations, that Yemen acts on its own, deciding when it is in its interest to escalate, de-escalate, or strike a particular area."
